Thanks for the responses, everybody.
25 - 100% is quite a range to work with. I'm thinking I would fall somewhere in the middle of that, with a majority of initial traffic coming from search engines. For the "man on the street" opinion I asked a few non-techie friends if they had ever forgotten something was a .net and screwed it up, and for the most part they seemed to think they'd remember. Of course how can you be asked to remember situations where you forgot something?
I think in many ways the site I'm working on would depend on return visits, and I'd just prefer to have a .com. So as Heyder so aptly put, I think I'll "put my nose to the domain
name grinding stone" some more.
The fact that Connie and many others have had tremendous success with catchy domains that don't necessarily reveal their site's subject matter from the name itself shows you just what possibilities exist even with so many good domains taken. BTW, Connie, I spent my first year of life in Owatonna and grew up nearby. Small world, eh?
So...back to the domain name search. Well, the good news is that when I do get a domain for this site figured out I'll have a lot of the groundwork of site design and content development done.