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  1. #1
    Master of Design AlexBet's Avatar
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    I feel very angry, and sad, and what not, by looking at the US$ fall against the Euro (and all other currencies) day after day, and month after month. Within these past few months it has dropped around 30% For us affiliates living here in Europe and receiving those shrinking US$ checks, it is a nightmare. Even in the European countries (like mine) whose official currency is not the Euro, we still have the value of our currency tied to the Euro, which means that if the US$ falls against the Euro, then we can pay less bills (30% less in this case).

    There are rumours that this trend will continue, which kinda scares me. It seems that the US$ is falling to a rank of #2 in the most exchanged goods in the world, and the Euro is slowly taking the #1 position. It seems to me that the worst fears of the US economists are slowly coming true. Yes, I know that you will say that this will boost the exports etc, but this is bad, trust me. I live in a country with a weak currency and that hasn't helped us too much. I am not an expert in this field and I don't want to argue about how things will go. I am just expression my thoughts and feelings, and I know that I am hit in my most sensitive spot, my POCKET.

    One thing that I am interested in is the following...

    Do you people that live in the US feel any diffence in your economic situation in comparison to e.g. a couple of years ago? Just don't take into account if you are poorer or richer (because of affiliate marketing), but look at it through a perspective of how much goods/services you could buy with a certain amount of money a couple of years ago, and how much you can buy now with that same amount of money. For example, what was tre price of one gallon of gas 2 years ago and what is the price now? Now compare that with the average worker's from 2 years ago with the average worker's pay today. Does the percentage of increase in price of the gas correspond to the percentage of increase of the average worker's pay in the US? Is it lower, is it higher? Again, don't take into account only yourself (and your pay), but look at the broader picture, i.e. at the average worker's pay in the US.

    Final Thought

    Throughout history, kingdoms have risen and fallen all the time. Once they've reached their peak of power, they've had a sharp downfall. Is it possible that this is happening to the US!?! Has the US reached it's peak of power!?! By looking at the market trends, this is the beginning of this as the US markets fall continuously at their lowest in decades. It is obvious that no country can defeat the US militarily (at present), but the US economy can destroy the US world dominance, and this will influence all aspects of life in the US and the world.

    I honestly hope that this scenario will NOT happen, and that the US economy will bounce back soon, because the US not being the #1 economic power kinda scares me.

    What are your thoughts on this issue?

    Bring back the US$ I am loosing money!!!!

    Alex
    AlexBet Design

    [This message was edited by AlexBet on May 22, 2003 at 04:06 AM.]

    [This message was edited by AlexBet on May 22, 2003 at 04:08 AM.]

  2. #2
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    Great post Alex.

    A topic that scards me too. I have seen my pay after conversion drop month after month.
    The amount of money we lose now compared to 8 months ago is amazing.

    OK, gotta build more pages.

    Andy Williams

    Keyword DARTs - New search engine optimization software
    http://www.affiliate-masters.co.uk/k...timization.htm

  3. #3
    ABW Adviser Panel Dynamoo's Avatar
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    We European affiliates shouldn't have to rely on the US for our income, but you'd be hard pushed to find decent affiliate programs outside of the UK, with the exception of Amazon I guess.

    This is daft when you consider the size of the European marketplace which is massive. Language is an issue, but many non-UK residents speak at least one other language competently, so they should be able to market in their native language plus German/French/English or whatever.

    Where are the German merchants on CJ? Or the French ones? Or Italian? If the UK can support a decent range of affiliate programs on CJ and Befree, then so should other European countries.

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  4. #4
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    No, Alex, the USA is not going down because of a weak $. The only way it could be brought down are Presidents like GWB and his warlords.
    In the past the USA paid a big price for having a strong $ and so garantying the stability of other currencies like DM, Euro, Franc etc. Now the US Trade Department decided to protect these currencies no longer and to look not for stability in the world. This is neccessary for the USA because they are importing very much more than they export. For building up more and new jobs in the USA it is neccessary to do so because a significant increase of taxes is only reachable through this instrument. That is the price for beeing a superforc and making war.

    carneol

  5. #5
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    Yeah, there's a lot in the same boat here.

    Revenues have dropped approx 30% here also in changes between the AU$ and the US$.

    What annoys me the most is that you hear about all the 'great news' on the news reports about how great a higher Australian (or insert your currency here) dollar is for everyone.

    I'm thinking it might nearly be time to get some things started in my local market (or even import my own products & sell locally).

  6. #6
    ABW Adviser Panel Dynamoo's Avatar
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    Yes, Oz is another case in point. It's quite a big market, but straight off the top of my head I can list three or four *Canadian* affiliate programs (eBay, Amazon, Chapters and maybe TigerDirect), but only one *Australian* one (eBay).

    Maybe the disparity is more obvious when you compare national GDPs.

    The UK has a GDP of about $1.5 trillion, Canada $920 billion, Australia $530 billion, Germany $2.2 trillion, France $1.5 trillion, Italy $1.4 trillion, Spain $830 billion. In other words these are all BIG economies with similar standards of living, and presumably the potential marketplace to shift online product. But apart from the UK, there seems to be very little scope for affiliates, if indeed there's much activity in eCommerce at all going on.

    To me, the bottom line is this. If I have a page extolling the virtues of the MegaWidget 3000 then I'll put links in for every marketplace I can find. But that's generally just the US and the UK if I'm lucky. Frustrating, huh?

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  7. #7
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    It works both ways. There was a time when the Euro was weak and my income from the US company I worked for kept going up and up.

    Anyway, maybe we all need to just dig a little further. I just took a quick look at Germany and found Affilinet - a kind of German CJ clone which has over 450 merchants listed, included several major retailers.

    http://www.affili.net/

  8. #8
    ABW Veteran Student Heyder's Avatar
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    I can't speak for everyone in the US but where I live we are probably hardest hit by this economic slowdown. With that said my life and the lives of nearly everyone in my area hasn't changed a bit. Pricing has remained the same, wages have remained and the job market isn't great but there are plenty of jobs if you want to work. Hell if I was to say so myself I'd say we were in great financial times.

    Is there anyone in the US that's feeling any sort of slowdown? Yeah a few companies have laid off employees but I think they look for excuses to do these things and time them accordingly. The travel industry may be slowed down but other than that I don't see any evidence of it.

  9. #9
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    "The only way it could be brought down are Presidents like GWB and his warlords."
    What a silly statement.

    I could type much better if I had knuckles

  10. #10
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    I know this sounds strange , but IMO :

    The US dollar falling as it has been , is a wonderful "recipe for success" for the U.S. economy to bounce back with. This temporary drop is just the lucky break we need in tough times .


    It lets the Europeans THINK they are getting a bargain on our exports , while over here, a buck is still a buck , and we will glady SELL SELL SELL them all they care to buy and let the dollars keep rolling in , reducing unemployment, and reversing the domino effect that has had the US going deeper in the hole since the attacks on 9/11/01.


    From what I gather from relatives visiting from Germany, the Europeans have somehow been getting RIPPED OFF for years on products like denim jeans, sneakers, leather jackets , etc.

    I never could understand why they always want to buy clothes over here , supposedly sooooooooo much cheaper for the same stuff .

    Now "I think" I get it . They've been getting JERKED all along, and now, they will finally get to pay a fair price for U.S. goods and services !

    When the Europeans wake up from their "dream" spending spree, they'll be waking up to their own slightly weakened ecomony to match their weak military, and once again be left scratching their a$$ , and wondering how the heel we managed to come out on top again !



    On the down side...
    Imported goods will be more expensive for us to buy. So what . Is there ANYTHING besides white or black truffles that we can't buy right here in the good old USA or just do without for a while ?


    Sorry, but I don't feel bad for foreigners in affiliate marketing that are getting hit hard when converting their US - based income to their own currency .

    However, I do feel bad for the same folks that live in such a weak economic state that it makes them DEPEND on US money for their own bread and butter in far away lands.

    As GWB put it so bluntly ...
    "You're eithor with us , or you're against us ."

    While that was meant for the fight against terrorism , I think it's kind of applicable here too as far as the US dollar plunge goes .

    If you're living outside the USA , you're not "with us ", so naturally, you can't "spend it" the same way we can here in the U.S .



    The US dollar hasn't changed for me . It's still EXACTLY one dollar , even though it doesn't buy much

  11. #11
    ABW Ambassador Sam Bay's Avatar
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    Don't worry! Democrats will come back in 2004 and everything will be back to good.

  12. #12
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    <BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Imported goods will be more expensive for us to buy. So what . Is there ANYTHING besides white or black truffles that we can't buy right here in the good old USA or just do without for a while ? <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

    A lot of the things you can buy in the USA will turn out to be imports. And the components used to build a lot of the things that say "made in America" will be imports, too. If you want to avoid buying imports, you may have to resort to growing your own food and making your own clothes.

    The weak dollar will help exports, and reduce some of that trade deficit. In March, for example, the US imported $43.5 billion more goods and services than it exported.

    But only in the medium-term. In the short-term the deficit could get worse, US companies will invest less in more expensive imported machinery, the price of sneakers will rise etc. All of which means it will get worse before it gets better.

    And then OPEC turns to the Euro, there's capital flight from the USA, the US economy collapses and the Europeans scratch their a$$ and wonder if they should let you join the EU after Lithuania and Malta.

  13. #13
    ABW Adviser Panel Dynamoo's Avatar
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    Currency fluctuations are a fact of life, but if you're doing any kind of business across currency boundaries it can be a killer. A currency shift of 10% can wipe out a margin. Basically, this is a Bad Thing as it creates an unstable environment for businesses. And what's bad for business is bad for the economy, and what's bad for the economy is bad for everyone.

    This is why most major European countries moved across to a single currency in 2001, creating an economic space broadly the same size at the US. Also it's a mixed blessing for countries involved, in the long term it will remove problems of exchange rate fluctuations killing profits.

    From our perspective, there's great scope for pan-European merchants to come online. I'd suspect that maybe the first to do this would be Amazon, which already sells to the UK, Ireland, France, Germany and Austria. Give it a couple of years and I can see no reason why they wouldn't be able to ship pretty much any product anywhere if they can either add distribution centres or work out how to get shipping costs as low as they are in the US.

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  14. #14
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    Lisa,
    this is kind of a post which shows me that you are rather "innocent" in knowledge of economic relationships. And it shows that you are jealous on European marketeers. If the US marketeers would be good enough Europeans would have no chance to sell.What Europeans are buying in USA is nothing which is produced in the USA eg. like jeans, jackets or shoes. It is produced in Taiwan and China, imported to the USA and, because of lower taxes it is still cheaper to buy in USA than in Europe. The USA is dependant on goods they buy outside. Think of oil, metals, machines with technical know-how which the USA does not have,and at least of highly educated people from Europe and Asia. Almost everything in the USA is influenced by Europeans ( see Rumpsfelt ) It was the USA in the 60ths of last century which asked to end trade restrictions and it was that step which developped the US economy to that what is is today. You should remember that the USA is only a small region in the world. An important region yes, but not too important.

    carneol

  15. #15
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    Adding money to my European ppc accounts keeps getting worse.

    BTW to undertand exchange rates, you have to understand the bond market and fiscal policy. Bush policies are leading to deflation which screws the bond market and weakens the dollar. Here's an excellent analysis:
    http://www.bondknowledge.com/review05_16_03.html

  16. #16
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    carneol ,

    "innocent"

    Yes, thanks for not jumping down my throat

    "jealous on European marketeers"
    Not quite, not even close , just unsympathetic to the current exchange rates for affiliate marketers depending on US income .

    That is the financial risk YOU take when dealing in foreign currency - makes no difference if it were Japanese Yen you are getting paid in.

    "What Europeans are buying in USA is nothing which is produced in the USA eg. like jeans, jackets or shoes."

    No kidding , it's been that way for decades .
    Doesn't change the fact that" Corporate America" is the one who stands to profit as the end result.
    Less production costs = fewer manual/ unskilled labor jobs in the US - agreed , BUT, at the same time that equates to more product at higher profit margins, more sales, and creates a slew of other new jobs and wealth building opportunities for all Americans in sales and distribution, construction, shipping and recieving,
    cashiers and customer service, management and accounting, postal jobs , mechanical positions, and tons more that follow .

    In other words, more jobs that Americans would prefer anyway, not mention the fact that it puts food on the table in poor starving nations that would otherwise be left to scavage for food in the trash, or beg, borrow, and steal .

    " Oil, metals, machines with technical know-how which the USA does not have "

    Oil, We have plenty . We're saving it as a last resort . You do know that , at the rate of current consumption, the world is expected to run out of fossil fuels in as short a time span as 200 - 300 years , don't you ?
    We'll be holding up ALL ACES if and when that deal of the cards is drawn .

    Metals, true... we really don't have much of those , guess you just can't have everything, can you ?


    Machines and technical know-how we do NOT have - are you kidding me ?
    That was a typo, wasn't it ?


    This is just how I view things, and yes, I may very well be innocently uninformed on world economic matters , and you could be wiser than I am on this topic, I'm just commenting on how I view things - No arguments or insults intended.

  17. #17
    ABW Veteran Student Heyder's Avatar
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    Nomater how much we donno we still nohmbar won.

  18. #18
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    As you have seen for most important European countries it is not important that s.o. is nr.1. Being nr. 1 means that there is a competition between parties. The Europeans will not compete with the USA. Why should they? GWB finds it already very difficult to be nr.1 and he is looking for assistance but his war partners can also not afford a dime for the wanted help. So as long as the USA is nr. 1 and wants to keep it the Europeans are shure that they are on the safe side.
    Lisa: almost every technology the USA has is coming from Europe or Asia and this will go on as long as the USA has an education system as it has today.
    Buying cheap US good which were not produced in USA let us more money in our pockets, and we can do with it what we want, e.g. having holydays in USA. The USA is only able to produce 1 third of the oil it needs the rest must be imported. Did you forget why the GWII started? And concerning metals: will GWB fight he next war for metals? But who is then operating the machines in your factories whan all your people are in countries like Iraq or Bolivia or Uganda?
    Germany is exporting high technology machines to the USA worth hundreds of billion of $$ each year, France too. Why that if the USA is as productive as you think?
    No, the Europeans will not compete with the USA on beeing nr.1. This goal is not worth to be reached. And we are tired of those ideas because we are " the old Europe". And the new Europe? You should remember that Poland could not afford any dime for assistance and first asked Germany to help them to build up a contigent for the Iraq. No, no. We let you be nr 1 and we are shure that the USA is busy in keeping that nr1 position. This means that we are left alone.

    carneol

  19. #19
    ABW Veteran Student Heyder's Avatar
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    Do you have a point? I'm a very patient person but please tell us what exactly your point is if you have one.

  20. #20
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    I posted it here before. Concerning the currency issue I find it not good or bad having a weak $ because I have a $ account here and I let the money on my account until times change. Thanks for beeing patient with an old man.

    carneol

  21. #21
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    The U.S. has been through worse. The U.S. will bounce back, it always does.

    "Nothing focuses the mind better than the constant sight of a competitor who wants to wipe you off the map."
    --Wayne Calloway

  22. #22
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    <BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Lisa:
    while over here, a buck is still a buck <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

    I wish over here a buck was still a buck. Seems more like 80 cents

    Andy Williams

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    http://www.affiliate-masters.co.uk/k...timization.htm

  23. #23
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    You americans are blessed to have one currency always....we in europe, specially before the euro, are mostly experts in exchange rates and a multitude of currencies.

    Just a cultural difference that I guess is globalizing now and also now influencing americans as well, you gotta get used to this kind of flunctuation in the globalized world. Is there something more globalized than affiliate marketing?? I don't think so!!!

    Here are some tips from someone who's lost and made money with the currency shifts.

    One thing for the newbies to this games is to 'hedge' your position in one currency by buying some of the 'other' currency on which you depend.

    This way what you make on one is automatically added to your loss on the other and you maintain the buying power.

    Almost every bank will let you buy euro funds and of course every bank has U$ funds, so buy some of both when you receive the paychecks, this way you maintain the value in euro or dollar.

    Just a tip. Unless you're a mega speculator that REALLY knows what you're doing you shouldn't be trying to predict the market, just buy 50% each currency and you'll be ok!!!

  24. #24
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    Of course I'm supposing you don't need to spend the cash right away! If you must spend the paychecks as they come then you are at a loss if you're getting paychecks in U$ in europe!

    Another idea would be to buy stuff you need in U$ while the euro is stronger(which is probably the intention of the US government anyway).

  25. #25
    ABW Ambassador mousejockey's Avatar
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    With the dollar shift, I've been looking at losses of up to $600 on some checks.
    From what I remember about 3 years ago the
    US $ plunged, then rose to a nice high.

    I have faith the US dollar will gain strength again, so I'm hanging onto the larger checks and cashing the smaller ones.

    "I haven't failed, I've just found 10,000 reasons why it doesn't work"
    Thomas Edison

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