A lot of mixed feelings over the last week, from stressing out over unquantifiable risks to optimism about brighter days with ePN.

To deal with the risks, I wanted to look at (to the extent that my data allows me) how "engaged" my visitors are on eBay. Somehow, I hope it could be an insurance policy some day if i'm banned, to be able to quantify my visitor's "engagement" and to be able to say "but I've improved".

Tracing through the clicks from my 2 largest sites, here is how "engaged" my visitors have been on eBay:

Total: 62,414 clicks, of which 2,094 (3.36%) resulted in sales of 3,719 items/listings. Each click average .0596 items/listings sold. For those clicks that resulted in at least one sale, the click average 1.776 items/listings/sold.

Site A: 53,352 clicks, of which 1,653 (3.1%) resulted in sales of 2,685 items/listings/ Each click average .05 items/listings sold. For those clicks that resulted in at least one sale, the click average 1.624 items/listing/sold.

Site B: 9,062 clicks, of which 441 (4.87%) resulted in sales of 1,034 items/listings/ Each click average .114 items/listings sold. For those clicks that resulted in at least one sale, the click average 2.344 items/listing/sold.

The interesting thing, as Tracy had pointed out in this thread, is that sometime you get a cookie which will give you multiple wins, to make it an interesting distribution curve.

I'd run a standard deviation number one the stats (based on a normal dist. assumption), and it didn't make much sense, as it shouldn't since this is a discreet function.

So... thinking it out as a Poisson distribution, and things becomes a little clearer, at least from this narrow statistic viewpoint.

If you're sending gazillions of click to eBay, some of those clicks (over time), should convert to a high number of listings sold (dozens if not in the hundreds). Otherwise, the numbers will point you out.

Since eBay is going down the metrics path, I wanted to start a conversation in this direction. At a minimum, there's going to be a new area requiring double checking from the affiliate side.

Thank You,

Tuan