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  1. #1
    ABW Founder Haiko de Poel, Jr.'s Avatar
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    Continued Success,

    Haiko
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  2. #2
    Full Member Code Monkey's Avatar
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    Thanks Haiko!

    Can I now be happy that I no longer have a major balance due to me at CJ?

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  4. #4
    Full Member Code Monkey's Avatar
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    I wonder where owed-commissions stand in the line of creditors at bankruptcy?

  5. #5
    ABW Founder Haiko de Poel, Jr.'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Code Monkey
    I wonder where owed-commissions stand in the line of creditors at bankruptcy?
    Absolute last
    Continued Success,

    Haiko
    The secret of success is constancy of purpose ~ Disraeli

  6. #6
    notary sojac Herb ԿԬ's Avatar
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    Cool
    I think, since we don't cost the merchants unless we bring them business, that CJ will be an increasing contribution to VC's bottom line.

    This in reference to the article's mention of less media spend.

    So CJ better treat us nice . . .

  7. #7
    ABW Founder Haiko de Poel, Jr.'s Avatar
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    Affs don't cost the merchants, but CJ does sales or not, and with a major recession then there won't be many sales, thus no 30% only fees.
    Continued Success,

    Haiko
    The secret of success is constancy of purpose ~ Disraeli

  8. #8
    Affiliate Network Rep ayakobing's Avatar
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    Very interesting article...

  9. #9
    Merchant & ABW Ambassador
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    Quote Originally Posted by Haiko de Poel, Jr.
    Affs don't cost the merchants, but CJ does sales or not, and with a major recession then there won't be many sales, thus no 30% only fees.
    I think CJ might have to come up with a different model to supplement their current income to ride out the storm or face some real issues.

    Where there is problems, there is always opportunities.

    The questions is, are they agile enough to adapt to changes.

  10. #10
    ABW Founder Haiko de Poel, Jr.'s Avatar
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    Right all networks would, the fact is that it appears that VCLK is the weakest in terms of the current market (stock wise) and may be the first to fall (as they say in article).
    Continued Success,

    Haiko
    The secret of success is constancy of purpose ~ Disraeli

  11. #11
    ABW Ambassador
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    How accurate do you think this is?
    This isnt all ValueClick is worried about. The Google Affiliate Network is about to surge as the largest CPA advertising network in the world over Commission Junction, a profitable asset for ValueClick. Google is already gaining speed and as soon as they integrate analytics for publishers, it will be over for ValueClick affiliate marketing.
    I find GAN grossly inadequate in every way.
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  12. #12
    Domain Addict / Formerly known as elbowcreek Thomas A. Rice's Avatar
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    Maybe google will put in an offer for vc or cj, if cash flow becomes an issue.

  13. #13
    ABW Ambassador
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    I have to agree with Celicaphile. While all of the networks will clearly be impacted by the economy, projecting the demise of VCLK affiliate marketing is not in the foreseeable future. And Google has never been considered a leader in affiliate marketing despite all of the pundits in the past.

  14. #14
    Affiliate Manager bs0101's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Ewe
    I think CJ might have to come up with a different model to supplement their current income to ride out the storm or face some real issues.
    What type of shift could you see them making? I think ValuClick will try to become a big retargeting player and I would assume they would leverage CJ's reach in the process... Just a thought, but scary to think about.

  15. #15
    ABW Ambassador Greg Rice's Avatar
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    Google doesn't do things half-baked. I can see them overtaking CJ at their current rate of growth. People expect G to make improvements, which is probably why they're signing up so fast. If there is no improvement the tide will change but I suspect improvements are in the works.
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  16. #16
    Lite On The Do, Heavy On The Nuts Donuts's Avatar
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    "We got word that their recent head of M&A, Sam Paisley, just jumped ship to SpotRunner."

    Talk about jumping from the frying pan into the fire...

    Google Affiliate Network is kicking ValueClick's CJ in the chins for now... and Google Ad distribution has marginalized the efforts by VC to be in that business... but Google video ads for TV has already kicked SpotRunner squarely in the gonads. Next, this guy will get a job working for the search team at Yahoo...

  17. #17
    Analytics Dude Kevin's Avatar
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    Next, this guy will get a job working for the search team at Yahoo...
    Yahoo still does search???

    Seriously, though, all you have to do is look at your email daily to know that GAN is on a tremendous pace to pass CJ in the near future.

    Question is, as Eric put it, can CJ define itself and own a piece of turf. The "smaller" networks have carved out better defined niches than has CJ. And they clearly are continuing to bleed valuable advertisers, and I'm sure, as a result, valuable publishing space if not publishers overall.

    Per this article, the answer to my question "Who has GAN hurt the most, from a network perspective?" is being answered.
    Kevin Webster
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  18. #18
    general fuq mrbshouse's Avatar
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    wow the stories that get traction continue to amaze me. One day I know someone is going to get nailed by FTC for stock tampering or something of the same tone.

    Stretching a downgrade of buy to neutral to complete failure WTF

    There is no doubt they took a hit, as did Google (just looked at both charts for both) but to start asking about bankruptcy is laughable. When the dust settles i'm guessing both will be a buy recommendation.

    For the record here is the Banc of America Securities quote as sited by Reuters: (please edit as need be if it is wrong to post this)

    "We believe ValueClick's share price is likely to continue undervaluing the company's assets over the short term, as the company has exposure to the weak online display ad industry with few positive catalysts,"......The brokerage also said it could not rule out the possibility of the company to being a target for acquisition, given the disconnect between its assets and share price.

  19. #19
    ABW Ambassador delsol's Avatar
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    Hello friends,

    People need to keep their cool or their analysis has very little value. The Dow is nearly down 50% from its peak. All stocks today should be downgraded from "buy" to "neutral"... probably even "sell". Any Financial firm, out there, with a "buy" rating on any equity is questionable.

    All companies are at risk in this environment, even yours. The first companies at risk, are the one's that can't operate on the income. Since credit or even commercial paper markets are "stuck", some of these companies will probably go under. All the other companies, including CJ, will probably have to cut costs (layoffs, no Christmas bash ..etc..) and hope this slow down does not last a decade or even more.

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Ewe
    The questions is, are they agile enough to adapt to changes.
    I agree, the additional problem, is that this situation is currently changing by the week and no one knows how "far/deep" this will go. Not only will CJ, and most other firms, have to adapt to changes but will probably have to do so repeatedly.

    Personally, I find the CJ interface the best to work with, by far. On nearly all level, tracking, links, new merchants, invalid clicks etc... Today, they have the superior tool and apparently also the superior fees ;-)

    Peace,
    C
    Last edited by delsol; October 11th, 2008 at 01:15 AM.

  20. #20
    MasterMike HardwareGeek's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Haiko de Poel, Jr.
    Absolute last
    But aren't Affiliates Creditors?

    We are offering CJ Credit by not forcing them to pay us imediately when a sale is made.

    Creditor doesn't = Bank it equals the person money is owed too.

    I personally don't think any affiliate should consider themselves anything less then a creditor if VC files for bankruptcy or something.

    Definition of Creditor by Princeton Law
    a person to whom money is owed by a debtor; someone to whom an obligation exists

    Not directing this at the person who I quoted but everyone in General.

    We need to stop thinking of our selves as JUST affiliates.

  21. #21
    Troll Killer and best Snooper!
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    And never forget - a sale is not a sale until the check clears your bank.

  22. #22
    ABW Ambassador
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    I hope this is not the first of many GAN casualties, it will be a sterile industry if we lose all competition.
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  23. #23
    ABW Ambassador Boom or Bust's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by HardwareGeek
    But aren't Affiliates Creditors?

    We are offering CJ Credit by not forcing them to pay us imediately when a sale is made.

    Creditor doesn't = Bank it equals the person money is owed too.

    I personally don't think any affiliate should consider themselves anything less then a creditor if VC files for bankruptcy or something.

    Definition of Creditor by Princeton Law
    a person to whom money is owed by a debtor; someone to whom an obligation exists

    Not directing this at the person who I quoted but everyone in General.

    We need to stop thinking of our selves as JUST affiliates.
    But when the liquidation money isn't enough to go around, the judge divvies it up. And undoubtedly, to whom much is owed much will be received... you know the rest.



    X

  24. #24
    The Seal of Aproval rematt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ed Byerly
    But when the liquidation money isn't enough to go around, the judge divvies it up. And undoubtedly, to whom much is owed much will be received... you know the rest.
    Correct and unfortunately affiliates will be viewed individually not collectively. But I doubt CJ is going anywhere.

    -rematt
    "I know that you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant." - Richard Nixon

  25. #25
    ABW Ambassador Joshua's Avatar
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    GAN is not a threat to CJ, at least in the short term. Their merchant list is pretty pathetic in comparison (comparing large brands), and their interface needs a lot of work. How many programs there have "No merchandising text available for (merchant name)" when you click the company name? A ton. Not listing commissions on the search page, and having to click another tab in the popup? Not a good strategy. Unresponsive account mangers for GAN-managed programs? Not good either.

    I don't think ValueClick is going anywhere. It seems that CJ is one of their stronger divisions, and ValueClick (or CJ) would be acquired before anything goes bankrupt.

    Here's the key in the original article:
    has had their stock turn from Buy to Neutral on news of Bank Of America downgrading all online display advertising companies.
    This wasn't an isolated downgrade. It was the whole industry. There may be layoffs, but I don't see how VCLK would bite the dust any time soon.

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