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  1. #1
    Merchant & ABW Ambassador
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    US is "officially" in a recession
    After all the incidents and Dow melting down, it was announced today that we are in a recession.

    The kicker, we have been a recession since dec 07.

  2. #2
    Prince of Content Vinny O'Hare's Avatar
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    Did we really need an official announcement
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  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by nyfalcon
    Did we really need an official announcement
    you have to ask the US bureau of economic data or whatever that bureau is called.

  4. #4
    Prince of Content Vinny O'Hare's Avatar
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    Yeah it just cracks me up that they are finally talking about it being "official". Half the people I know are out of work
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  5. #5
    ABW Ambassador MeeMaw's Avatar
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    Extremely breaking news... right. lol

  6. #6
    Outsourced Program Manager Affiliate Eagle's Avatar
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    The good news is we've hit a bottom of some sorts, that means we can only go up from here...Here's to some good ole optimism!
    Emilio Yepez
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  7. #7
    Full Member Greywolf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Emilio-ARC
    The good news is we've hit a bottom of some sorts, that means we can only go up from here...Here's to some good ole optimism!
    You assume we've hit a bottom.

  8. #8
    Prince of Content Vinny O'Hare's Avatar
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    Emilio we haven't hit bottom yet, We still have to deal with all the people that ran up their credit cards trying to save their house. I don't think we are at the tip of the ice berg yet. I am amazed no one is talking about this.
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  9. #9
    ABW Ambassador writerguy's Avatar
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    That 679-680 point drop in the Dow today probably means we haven't hit the bottom on anything yet, have we??
    Generate more fake news.

  10. #10
    Full Member Greywolf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nyfalcon
    Emilio we haven't hit bottom yet, We still have to deal with all the people that ran up their credit cards trying to save their house. I don't think we are at the tip of the ice berg yet. I am amazed no one is talking about this.
    You are correct, and some are talking about it.

    http://www.forbes.com/2008/10/31/cre...money_inl.html

  11. #11
    Affiliate Network Rep Ryan Gilbert's Avatar
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    Surely they don't use 11 months data to decide?? I thought a recession on 2 negative quarters of GDP in a row. Today I find out the NBER looks at four key monthly economic indicators, including employment, industrial output and sales. Anyone know a good resource to find out what these indicators are and over what time period? NBER site is a minefield...
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  12. #12
    Outsourced Program Manager Ashish Selarka's Avatar
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    Definitely have not hit the bottom yet. I think there is more to come. Let's wait & see how the 3 auto makers do this week, and even if they did get the funding, I wonder how long will it last, they will probably come back again in 2 months & ask for more bailout $$.

    The thing that scares me is the gas is $1.85 in CA, and that's scary. Because its a sign of worse things to come....
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  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brandlet
    Definitely have not hit the bottom yet. I think there is more to come. Let's wait & see how the 3 auto makers do this week, and even if they did get the funding, I wonder how long will it last, they will probably come back again in 2 months & ask for more bailout $$.

    The thing that scares me is the gas is $1.85 in CA, and that's scary. Because its a sign of worse things to come....
    The scariest thing there - Russia was going to pull themselves out of their financial crisis with oil money... no more. Putin in a fighting mood and the country in a financial crisis? Ugh...

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ryan Gilbert
    Surely they don't use 11 months data to decide?? I thought a recession on 2 negative quarters of GDP in a row. Today I find out the NBER looks at four key monthly economic indicators, including employment, industrial output and sales. Anyone know a good resource to find out what these indicators are and over what time period? NBER site is a minefield...
    The economy grew in the first 2 quarter but a minute % in 2008. The came up with this announcement after factoring in other things like bank meltdown, etc

  15. #15
    Full Member Greywolf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brandlet
    The thing that scares me is the gas is $1.85 in CA, and that's scary. Because its a sign of worse things to come....
    What's the problem with $1.85 gas?

  16. #16
    ABW Ambassador Stephanie Lichtenstein's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nyfalcon
    Did we really need an official announcement
    No we really did not. I think people need to stop talking about it all the time. Of course we don't want to ignore it but bringing it up 24/7 does not fix things. Moving on begins changing things for the better.
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  17. #17
    Outsourced Program Manager ChrisMiquel's Avatar
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    I agree with Steph. All this media just continues to destroy the consumers confidence. We need the media to focus more on stories that are helping to promote growth, but then again maybe there isn't anything else we can focus on.

  18. #18
    Outsourced Program Manager Affiliate Eagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Emilio-ARC
    The good news is we've hit a bottom of some sorts, that means we can only go up from here...Here's to some good ole optimism!
    Well I said a bottom "of some sorts", personally I do not believe that the US is heading toward a depression and I really do think if we try hard enough that we are 6-12 months away from seeing some positive change...What can I say I am optimist by nature...

    No doom and gloom in my thinking...
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  19. #19
    Outsourced Program Manager Stephanie Harris's Avatar
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    Being optimistic will do more than help the mood. A lot of this is psychological and self-fulfilling. So everyone that talks "depression" and "the worst situation since the great depression" etc. just strikes more fear into people, which causes them to hold onto their money more, which causes more businesses to go bankrupt, so they have to lay off more people, etc etc etc.

    So if we're optimistic and we spend conservatively but not completely hold tight to everything, I think we'll eventually psych ourselves out of it :-) For lack of better terminology. And bail everyone and everything out, so it seems.
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  20. #20
    Outsourced Program Manager Affiliate Eagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stephanie Harris
    Being optimistic will do more than help the mood. A lot of this is psychological and self-fulfilling. So everyone that talks "depression" and "the worst situation since the great depression" etc. just strikes more fear into people, which causes them to hold onto their money more, which causes more businesses to go bankrupt, so they have to lay off more people, etc etc etc.

    So if we're optimistic and we spend conservatively but not completely hold tight to everything, I think we'll eventually psych ourselves out of it :-) For lack of better terminology. And bail everyone and everything out, so it seems.
    Amen to that! I would rather focus on a brighter future...
    Emilio Yepez
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  21. #21
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    >>>brighter future...

    We just hired a video production company to create VIDEOS for some of our merchants.

  22. #22
    Outsourced Program Manager Affiliate Eagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Merchant Consultant Team
    >>>brighter future...

    We just hired a video production company to create VIDEOS for some of our merchants.
    Congrats Mr. Mackin, I see a 7 figure income in your future!

    If your not there already...
    Emilio Yepez
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  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stephanie Harris
    So if we're optimistic and we spend conservatively but not completely hold tight to everything, I think we'll eventually psych ourselves out of it :-) For lack of better terminology. And bail everyone and everything out, so it seems.
    Some people should go back and read affiliates threads after the Internet bubble burst...

    Best you understand and track what is happening so you can understand how it affects your business and how you should handle a down turn. No amount of positive thinking is going to save you from some things.

    And in more recent history... What if you were someone who didn't pay attention to the housing bubble? You just spent all of your time and money in the house loan lead generation vertical thinking happy thoughts?

    Run your affiliate program, site, etc as a business. I know, crazy talk! Don't ignore the current news, understand it. Immerse yourself in it so you understand your customer and how they are changing. Yes, actually work to understand how this downturn impacts you, companies to steer clear of (it is your fault for working with a bankrupt company - no one else), those to work with, what to invest in, where to put your time etc. To think happy thoughts and to spend personally is going to save us all?!?!

    Chet

  24. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by chetf
    Some people should go back and read affiliates threads after the Internet bubble burst...

    Best you understand and track what is happening so you can understand how it affects your business and how you should handle a down turn. No amount of positive thinking is going to save you from some things.

    And in more recent history... What if you were someone who didn't pay attention to the housing bubble? You just spent all of your time and money in the house loan lead generation vertical thinking happy thoughts?

    Run your affiliate program, site, etc as a business. I know, crazy talk! Don't ignore the current news, understand it. Immerse yourself in it so you understand your customer and how they are changing. Yes, actually work to understand how this downturn impacts you, companies to steer clear of (it is your fault for working with a bankrupt company - no one else), those to work with, what to invest in, where to put your time etc. To think happy thoughts and to spend personally is going to save us all?!?!

    Chet
    I am with you on this. Nobody is in a bubble. At present, big box low price retailer are still ok but it will affect them sooner or later.

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