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  1. #1
    Moderator leeann's Avatar
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    2009 Predictions for Affiliate Marketing
    It looks like 2009 is going to be a wild year. Some say the economy may begin to turn by 2010. What does that mean for us?

    I'm pretty nervous about the next 12 months. I predict that as soon as the holidays come to an end, sales will drop off to over 75% compared to last year until March.

    I also think many companies will fold and not pay their commissions.

    I hate to sound so down but I'm pretty concerned. I don't plan to spend my holiday earnings too fast.
    Last edited by leeann; December 17th, 2008 at 11:06 AM.
    leeann


    Shoppers determine what has value and they like coupons. Stop manipulating who set the cookie just because you do not like coupon and promotional sites.

  2. #2
    ABW Ambassador Stephanie Lichtenstein's Avatar
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    Now is the time to be proactive and innovative. Don't sit and wait for the worst instead create a plan of action.

    "I have learned over the years that when one's mind is made up, this diminishes fear; knowing what must be done does away with fear." - Rosa Parks
    @MicroSteph | Stephanie Lichtenstein
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  3. #3
    Moderator MichaelColey's Avatar
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    I predict that affiliate marketing will still work in 2009, at least for companies that don't drop their commissions to 0.25% and affiliates that pick the right companies to work with and provide value to consumers and merchants.
    Michael Coley
    Amazing-Bargains.com
     Affiliate Tips | Merchant Best Practices | Affiliate Friendly? | Couponing | CPA Networks? | ABW Tips | Activating Affiliates
    "Education is the most powerful weapon which you can use to change the world." Nelson Mandela

  4. #4
    Full Member Code Monkey's Avatar
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    2009 will have even more opportunities for affiliates that:

    - Expand their knowledge
    - Think outside the box
    Stop blaming the parasites, low return days, cookie stuffers, networks, lousy AMs, and TOOLBARS!

  5. #5
    Full Member drumminlogan's Avatar
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    I think the affiliate field will change a lot in the next year. Affiliates will need to change the way they do things, but the opportunities will still be there to increase revenue through a down and changed economy.
    [b]Logan Thompson[/b]
    [size=-2][url=http://www.loganthompson.me]My Blog[/url] | [url=http://www.twitter.com/drumminlogan]Follow Me on Twitter[/url][/size]

  6. #6
    Moderator leeann's Avatar
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    I also think smaller companies may emerge to the front once the downfall of the some of the big guys takes place.
    leeann


    Shoppers determine what has value and they like coupons. Stop manipulating who set the cookie just because you do not like coupon and promotional sites.

  7. #7
    AM Navigator Geno Prussakov's Avatar
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    Diversification, and branching out into the fields not affected by the economy (or not so severely affected by it) will have to occur for affiliates that are not yet diversifying. People will still buy food, office supplies, pharmaceuticals, etc.

    Geno

  8. #8
    ABW Ambassador Greg Rice's Avatar
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    I think there will be a shake with affiliates like there will be for companies. Some will fail to compete while others will spot the trends and capitalize on them. There will be lean times but there will still be opportunities.
    Greg Rice Affiliate Program Management
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  9. #9
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    Being proactive, diversifying, branching out, trying new things, thinking out of the box, planning ahead, making good out of bad situations, etc. That's stuff you should be doing always, every single year. So for some, that's the same.

    But next year, I think it'll be pretty much the same as this year except because of our economy, people overall will be spending a little less.

  10. #10
    Outsourced Program Manager Angel Djambazov's Avatar
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    Here, I will go out on a limb...ValueClick hurt by drop in CPM sales gets devalued and bought (maybe by Microsoft specifically to acquire CJ and enhance their remnant media placements).
    Angel Djambazov
    Managing Edtior ReveNews
    OPM for Keen Shoes and Graphicly.com

  11. #11
    ...and a Pirate's heart. Convergence's Avatar
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    Google incorporates GAN with their new Adsense for Domains and buys an outside domain parking company - showing both affiliate links and PPC links on parked domains.

  12. #12
    ABW Ambassador Snib's Avatar
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    I'm sure it'll be tight in terms of retail sales, but innovation still continues to be strong. With new technologies like Facebook Connect and Google Friend Connect we'll be leveraging social interaction even more. I think to become successful as a newcomer in the space you'll definitely have to wow people with a service that brings social interaction to the forefront. Hopefully we'll see some new and interesting ideas in the retail space, and hopefully merchants will embrace affiliates who are on the cutting edge.

    - Scott
    Hatred stirs up strife, But love covers all transgressions.

  13. #13
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    It Will Be The Best Of Times & The Worst Of Times.
    In general, the economy will be a basket case with out a basket. It will
    FREE fall into something beyond what any thinks is possible. I think home
    prices will fall at least another 25%. Unemployment will spiral up to close
    to 15% and when you add in the 'people who are not counted,' you might
    see it go past the 20% market.

    Cash will be king ... not because there will be NO money around. The world is awash in money. But because, no one sees any way to add enough value to anything to cover the interest and risk they are willing to assume.

    Paper pushers will see their wages drop by at least 50% and if they aren't willing to take the cut, they will be out of a job. People who actually make
    useful products that are for all practical purposes necessities will do better.

    There are a few silver linings: EBAY & PayPal will prosper like never before.
    Millions of new people will sign up to do business on EBAY. There will be so many companies going out of business, you will be able to buy all kinds of stuff for below cheap and sell it on EBAY. Plus, since it is FREE to sign up there, those that help people get on EBAY and provide some 'how to' will make a ton of money. Sign up for FREE, then click on my buy it now link
    and buy a book on how to do EBAY.

    So many banks will go out of business, that it will be a NO brainer to open a new - NATIONAL- bank and make a fortune. The Feds will provide 80% to 90% of the capital. With FDIC insurance and no bad loans, it will be easy to arbitrage interest paid to depositors and interest recieved on new loans. Plus, since the old banks are up to their eyeballs in dreck, NEW banks are the only way the FEDS are going to see ANY new lending for anything.

    There will be so many retail spaces vacant, you can probably pick and choose the best location in your local area and sell TABLE space to entrepreneurs to sell stuff. Kind of like a swap meet, without the swap.

    And so it goes ...

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trust
    Being proactive, diversifying, branching out, trying new things, thinking out of the box, planning ahead, making good out of bad situations, etc. That's stuff you should be doing always, every single year. So for some, that's the same.

    But next year, I think it'll be pretty much the same as this year except because of our economy, people overall will be spending a little less.

    Trust is correct. Some of us are going to have to start doing what we should have been dong all along. Creativity is what is going to count; we must think-up totally out-of-box ideas if we wish to thrive this year.

    It would appear that more people will be going online this year to get good deals, deals they would not be able to find in stores. As another poster said, ebay will probably see an increase in both things being sold and things being bought. People looking to buy things will probably opt to buy them slightly used at a good discount as opposed to paying full-price for brand-new. Also, more people than ever will be putting stuff on ebay as jobs continue to be lost and bills pile-up.

    One thing that may hamper on-line spending is the credit card industry. Credit card companies are rapidly cutting back peoples limits and even canceling their accounts all together so as to have less extended credit. Card companies are also raising intrrest rates without notification. Given this and the fact that one's debt-to-credit ratio makes up about a third of their credit score, the people who have cards will be much less likely to add to their balance.

    In spite of all this, affiliates will still be able to make out this year. Two of the key things will be choosing the right niche and the right products. Job-hunting and money saving will likely be big niches. As for products we should focus on necessities instead of wants. Products geared toward saving money and lowering energy costs will also be hot. There will still be rich people who will not be affected by the economy and will buy whatever they want, but the vast majority of people will be being frugal.

    As affiliates we must adapt and survive. People will always be spending money; we just have to figure out what they will be spending it on. Whether 2009 will be a good year, an average year, or a bad year all depends on how we use our skills.

  15. #15
    ...and a Pirate's heart. Convergence's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nobugs
    Trust is correct. Some of us are going to have to start doing what we should have been dong all along. Creativity is what is going to count; we must think-up totally out-of-box ideas if we wish to thrive this year.

    It would appear that more people will be going online this year to get good deals, deals they would not be able to find in stores. As another poster said, ebay will probably see an increase in both things being sold and things being bought. People looking to buy things will probably opt to buy them slightly used at a good discount as opposed to paying full-price for brand-new. Also, more people than ever will be putting stuff on ebay as jobs continue to be lost and bills pile-up.

    One thing that may hamper on-line spending is the credit card industry. Credit card companies are rapidly cutting back peoples limits and even canceling their accounts all together so as to have less extended credit. Card companies are also raising intrrest rates without notification. Given this and the fact that one's debt-to-credit ratio makes up about a third of their credit score, the people who have cards will be much less likely to add to their balance.

    In spit of all this, affiliates will still be able to make out this year. Two of the key things will be choosing the right niche and the right products. Job-hunting and money saving will likely be big niches. As for products we should focus on necessities instead of wants. Products geared toward saving money and lowering energy costs will also be hot. There will still be rich people who will not be affected by the economy and will buy whatever they want, but the vast majority of people will be being frugal.

    As affiliates we must adapt and survive. People will always be spending money; we just have to figure out what they will be spending it on. Whether 2009 will be a good year, an average year, or a bad year all depends on how we use our skills.
    Pretty much sums it up - well done.

  16. #16
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    I agree with Trust when he said one of the keys will be diversification. Most affiliates will need to make sure all their eggs aren't in one basket. If one niche takes a hit, hopefully you have enough other areas you are working in that those will still work for you.

  17. #17
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    I would say the most important thing to have in 2009 would be to keep an open mind and react quickly to any changes.

  18. #18
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    I have had some similar things that net4biz wrote about in mind as well. At least as far as some general marketing theories goes, people do not stop buying things during a recessions. But their behavior does change, and people in general are (amongst other things) looking for bargains even more than the usually do.

    Hence a golden opportunity for smart Ebayers?

    Although the forecasts for the economic climate look pretty grim right now, I don't think there is any need for good affiliate marketers to feel that severely threatened.

    Because, as was pointed out multiple times in this thread, affiliate marketing is something where you have always had to be creative anyway. Using stale tactics has never generated commissions, even during strong economic times.

  19. #19
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    As mentioned above, diversity and not having all your eggs in one basket should be a great plan to outlast the recession. Affiliate Marketing isn't going away, so lets not go jump off the deep end with that

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