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December 26th, 2008, 11:21 PM #1Non-political economic analysis of possible US Depression 2009
Don't kill the messenger: I don't like this topic's subject header either. I'd much prefer Everything's Coming Up Roses.
Please note that this is not a political article: this is an economic analysis of what is happening regardless of any political party.
The Market Oracle has an article worth reading:
Great Depression 2009 Follows $30 Trillion Deflation
... the DJIA will correct all of the way back down to the level of the start of the last secular bull market which began in 1982 of 1000. A similar drop to the 100-level in the S&P 500 is to be also be expected. Gold will resort to its status as a currency and all currencies will deflate against gold...
It will end with the destruction of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency and return us to a gold-backed world currency regime. A sound world currency will allow us to once again grow the economy through savings and investment in a sustainable manner.
The current period will be more about preserving wealth than creating it. Your financial plan will require more of an emphasis on paying off debt, saving, and slashing your budget than it will on investing and designing a well-crafted diversified portfolio.
December 26th, 2008, 11:26 PM #2
thank you for the good read Rhia7.Wear Short Sleeves!!! Support the right to bare arms!
December 26th, 2008, 11:28 PM #3
December 26th, 2008, 11:29 PM #4
December 26th, 2008, 11:33 PM #5
December 26th, 2008, 11:35 PM #6Originally Posted by ProWebAddict
December 27th, 2008, 12:12 AM #7
Here's another related article:
Financial System in Collapse, Credit Crisis Worst Yet to Come
Here are some interesting quotes:
Beginning in 1971, for the first time in the history of global finance, no currency in the world has been backed by anything...
If money is backed by nothing more than government seals, decorated paper, and strongly voiced promises, greed enters into play ... The modern term for this is credit money, the loaning of credit by the central bank that becomes money itself...
But the good news is that intrinsic value will come back to real estate -- read about that here:
U.S. Housing Market Forecast 2009
Here's an interesting idea: wealth is never destroyed it's just transferred. This is scary:
I believe the crisis that will unfold over the next few years will add up to the biggest economic event in history. The scale of what is happening will dwarf all other economic events combined. The Tulip mania of 1637, John Law's "Mississippi Scheme" of 1720, and the dot-com / tech bubble of 1999 will pale by comparison.
Last edited by Rhia7; December 27th, 2008 at 12:30 AM.
December 27th, 2008, 12:53 AM #8
December 27th, 2008, 01:15 AM #9
Here's a different source that bodes bad news:
Worst is yet to come for retailers, analysts say
Industry experts expect unemployment to rise, the retail sector to shed jobs in January as well as more retailers to file for bankruptcy protection. Davidowitz is forecasting gross domestic product to shrink by 6 percent in the fourth quarter and again by 5 percent to 6 percent in the following quarter. In 2008, companies closed 8,000 stores and they are likely to shutter another 12,000 locations in 2009, he said.
December 27th, 2008, 01:42 AM #10
December 27th, 2008, 01:50 AM #11
Unhappy new year: More layoffs '09
Nearly 1 in 4 companies plan layoffs, and 1 million job cuts are forecast, reports show.
This holiday season, any retailer not named Wal-Mart (WMT) has reason to worry. Paltry profits and debt-laden balance sheets mean some players are facing not just tough times, but potential extinction. With U.S. retail sales taking a record 2.8% dive last month and Deloitte Research's consumer spending index turning negative for the first time since 1980, the climate is unforgiving.
December 27th, 2008, 01:54 AM #12Originally Posted by ProWebAddict
December 27th, 2008, 02:03 AM #13Originally Posted by Ed Byerly
I think current events are pointing to a deep recession not a depression although I think that the cited articles have some truths & warnings.
Similar unfortunate events are happening in the UK:
December 27th, 2008, 03:50 AM #14Originally Posted by Rhia7
December 27th, 2008, 05:29 AM #15
I decide when the pigs fly!
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- January 18th, 2005
- New York, USA
December 27th, 2008, 07:46 AM #16
An overseas perspective is that as Thailand is a manufacturer nation for all kinds of finished goods, produce, parts for things and tourism, a weak dollar is very bad news, so nations such as Thailand will work to devalue their own currency in order to ensure that their exports don't become expensive. Else the ripple effect is that factories close, unemployment rockets and we all go into the same firey basket. So far the Thai baht has remained stable vs the dollar. But I still here from friends in the manufacturing sector that overseas orders have decreased by a large amount, especially those from Japan...
December 27th, 2008, 09:45 AM #17
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- January 17th, 2005
If you want to really read what it will be like in the coming years, you might want to grab a copy of Charles Dickens' "Tale of Two Cities." I would bet that what Charlie describes is pretty close to what will actually happen. We are no different than people in 1789 ... except our technology is a bit more sophisticated and deadly.
"It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so." - Mark Twain.
"The most common of all follies is to believe passionately in the palpably not true." - H.L. Mencken
"Every human problem must be considered from the standpoint of time.' - Homi Baba.
Consider this: In the GREAT DEPRESSION, the great majority of depressed people GREW at least some of their own food. Not even close today. Not only is the total number of people greater, but the number who live where you need to import food stuff is astronomical, relatively speaking. To even eat enough to survive takes energy to get it from point A to point B and money.
While reading, so called, Holy books is good to assuage your emotional distress and help you feel better, it is NOT going to put food on your table or clean water in your glass - especially if you have NO money.
To really get your arms around the situation, I would suggest you read the following book: "Global Problems & The Culture of Capitalism" by Richard H. Robbins.
On the other hand: "I love the smell of napalm in the morning, it smells like ...Victory."
You might also want to rent the movie - "King Rat."
As for the economy, it will be interesting ... 1000 on the Dow is a probability for sure ... (the divisor has been so diluted as to magnify the moves.) I personally think that at least 5 if not 10 companies in the Dow will cease to exist by 2012.
Gold has been a store of value for 4,000 years ... Economists have been around since Adam Smith (1776). Gold (an mineral) is smarter than any Economist (an idiot). (See Mencken above)
Smith was wrong in that humans DO NOT always act in their own best interest. In most cases, humans do not even know what is in their best interest. They do not have sufficient data to make the right decision.
So the underlying assumption of all of economics is patently false.
Garbage in, garbage out.
The second stupidity of economic theory is that it ignores what are called 'eternalities.' Stuff like culture, religion, beliefs, ripple effects, unknown costs and benefits, who really pays what, when, why and where.
On the other hand, if I have all the clean drinking water and you have all the Gold but I do not WANT to trade you any gold for water ... you have approximately 10 days to figure out how to get the some water. Because if you do not, you will be dead, I and I will have the all the gold as well as all the water. (see Baba above)
And so it goes.
December 27th, 2008, 11:40 AM #18
It is easy to see all the ways we as a nation and as a planet have gone wrong. Easy to predict disaster as we are already in a mess that will surely get worse before it gets better. That doesn't mean that I for one minute believe that a return to the "gold standard" will be a cure for any of what has gone wrong. Money needs to be back by something of value but of what value is gold...I mean REAL value. Can you eat it, drink it, build a highway or a home with it. OK it is of use to some degree in electronics and computers but there are other substances far more important and you don't see anyone suggesting we use bauxite, chromium, cobalt, copper, silver,tungsten,manganese, platinum,tungsten or zinc to back currency. Why do we think that gold should be the one to do it? Because it is traditional and comforting.
FYI, the U.S would not be hardest hit by a return to the gold standard. To my surprise we have considerable reserves. The United States' holding of gold is worth approximately $241 billion (July 2008). Although the United States has the largest reserves of individual countries, in total the eurozone gold holdings are greater (11,065 tonnes as of December 2007).
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December 27th, 2008, 11:41 AM #19
December 27th, 2008, 11:45 AM #20Originally Posted by net4biz
December 27th, 2008, 11:47 AM #21
December 27th, 2008, 11:47 AM #22
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Is this another economy is bad thread? Yes, it's not over yet. It's going to get worse before it gets better. And it'll get better. Go make some pages.
December 27th, 2008, 01:23 PM #23
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- January 17th, 2005
For once Trusty is right ... go make pages ... **inflammatory political remark**. One page, one product, one sale per month/page and you are in the chips ... all you need is 100 pages, more if you can manage it. Make more sales, pass Go and collect more than you ever dreamed possible.
Just because disaster is pending, does not mean you have to be a victim and can't take advantage of and HELP others in the process.
Zig Ziglar pointed out long ago, that if you want something, help other people get what they want.
Providing online folks with QUALITY info on QUALITY products or services at the best price and low cost or free shipping saves them time and money.
They win. You win. The guys who make the product or provide the services win.
This all begs the question: What do they need? Same things you do? If you find and buy a cool product that you really like, make a page and tell people about it. If you can't find it in an affiliate program, use Amazon or Ebay.
Okay now do the math: 100 ONE page wonder pages times ONE sale per month with a commission of $5 on average and you make $500. ONE sale per page per week and you make $2,000. Two sales per week per page on average and you make $4,000.
Obviously, if you can generate more sales, you can make more money. If you can get generic traffic great, if not buy it. If you can't afford $1 per page per day in traffic costs ... rotate the pages you send traffic to. If you find one that converts well, keep that one going and keep on testing until you find
5 or 10 or 100 that convert and generate profits. Hint: don't waste time on
low commission type products unless you are using Amazon - where the more you sell, the higher your commission applies.
Also, if you find something you really like, try to buy it wholesale and sell it.
You can always send stuff Priority Mail and get FREE packaging materials from the US Post Office. For example: Up to one pound sent Priority Mail cost $4.80. If you want 'confirmed delivery' it costs $.65 cents more for a total of $5.45 ... Charge $6 for S&H or include it in the price. There are a zillion things people want and need that weigh less than one pound. If you can buy something for $5 and sell it for $16 with FREE shipping you make a
profit of $5.55 cents ... sell 8 a day and you are making over $1,000 per month.
Opportunity knocks are you home.
Last edited by Ed Byerly; December 28th, 2008 at 11:42 AM. Reason: Inflammatory political remark
December 27th, 2008, 01:28 PM #24
Originally Posted by TrustDeborah Carney
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December 27th, 2008, 02:12 PM #25Originally Posted by Trust
1) It's not over yet...
2) It will get worse before it gets better...
3) And it'll get better...
This has all been discussed before, in the Bible, over scotch, and with other cultures and beliefs - ie: events leading up to 2012. (2012 is NOT the end of the world, BTW)
Go make some pages.
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