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  1. #1
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    25% of Retailers May Go Bankrupt
    25% of Retailers May Go Bankrupt

    http://clusterstock.alleyinsider.com...ay-go-bankrupt

    Just brought this up because in a couple of other threads, some merchants programs were put on hold today, some news about it - http://investor.theparentcompany.com...leaseID=356190

    Maybe we should have 1 big thread and keep all the merchants going bankrupt in it and keep it updated, so it's easy to keep up and it's all in one place.

  2. #2
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    Trust ... I would bet the percentage eventually will grow to well over 50% and it will certainly not just be retailers.

    Good idea about the thread to be able to find the dead or dying companies all in one place. the list will get quite long as we move into the future.

    The good thing is that other businesses will take their place. And since all business is based of 'competition' and the creation of added value, EBAY will eventually rule the world. Prices of stuff are going to drop to prices so low, you will not believe it.

    As Arlo Guthrie crooned: "You can get everything you want at Alice's Restrauant."

    I love it when a plan comes together ... kind of reminds me of the scene just before the end in 'Platoon' where the guy climbs out of his hole after the naplam attack.

    The goal is just to survive to battle one more day.

  3. #3
    ABW Ambassador purplebear's Avatar
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    "Maybe we should have 1 big thread and keep all the merchants going bankrupt in it and keep it updated, so it's easy to keep up and it's all in one place."

    Definitely a great idea Friend of mine over the holidays showed me a list of retailers goin outa business....uhhh gettin quite long.

  4. #4
    Grandma broke her coccyx! Uncle Rico's Avatar
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    I am waiting for the flood of Deactivation notices to start pouring in after Jan 1st.

  5. #5

  6. #6
    Moderator MichaelColey's Avatar
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    Hyperbole, IMHO. Economists are no better at predicting the future than weathermen are at predicting the weather.

    Online is poised to do considerably better than brick and mortar. Even before the economic problems, online had been growing at a considerably faster rate while many brick and mortar stores have been declining. Many consumers have been shifting from brick and mortar to online. Most online stores have significantly smaller fixed overhead expenses, so they can weather downturns better. The online industry was already purged of a large number of poor business models in 2000-2001.

    IMHO, the doom and gloom forecasts and reporting are more devastating to our economy than any of the actual economic situations that have happened. Our economy is still strong and will recover, much to the surprise of those who say the sky is falling.
    Michael Coley
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  7. #7
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    "Online is poised to do considerably better than brick and mortar."

    Bankrupt is still bankrupt. Most, I would say upper 90s% of brick and mortar sell online. In your post it reads like online vs. b&m when it's the same company offline and online. Now there are some online only companies like Amazon that actually did great/better than in the past and look strong. I think a lot of businesses will get hit this year and things will get better but this is going to weed out some things (not a bad thing). And I think in the future we'll be better with all of this.

    "Our economy is still strong and will recover, much to the surprise of those who say the sky is falling."

    Have to disagree with you on that one. Our economy is still strong? No. Not sure what you base that on. Our stock market being in horrible condition, unemployment rising, bankruptcies, debt, bailouts left and right, people not spending as much, housing market in bad shape etc. We're in an economic recession. If that's strong, what does it have to do where you'll call it weak? But yes, it will recover. I agree with you on that.

  8. #8
    Full Member TerriFalcone's Avatar
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    It is pretty grim but I see government attempting to stem the tide and people will still need to buy goods and services. The trick is to have what they need not just want and to have it at a price-point that is attractive. Walmart did quite well because not only are they huge but they are cheaper than just about everybody and can even offer more non-necessity items like plasma televisions at a price that people can afford to pat.

  9. #9
    Believe knight01's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MichaelColey
    Hyperbole, IMHO. Economists are no better at predicting the future than weathermen are at predicting the weather.

    ..snip..

    IMHO, the doom and gloom forecasts and reporting are more devastating to our economy than any of the actual economic situations that have happened. Our economy is still strong and will recover, much to the surprise of those who say the sky is falling.
    I agree with Michael. The economists are doing nothing more than guessing. There are too many interwoven aspects of the economy to know what is going to happen. Will lower interest rates spur borrowing as the fed expects or will the jobless claims keep consumers sidelined due to their fear of future unemployment.

    I could go on and on with the inter-relationships of the economy. But as Coley stated the consumer is seeing nothing but bad news and is becoming more and more conservative. This is creating a spiral downward just as a few years ago everything seemed to be positive and the spiral was upward. A great deal of it is attitude and the media is playing it down. Much of the economy is a self-fulfilling prophecy. Believe things are getting bad and they will be, believe you can succeed and you will.


    There are some very significant issues in some specific areas of the country. Ohio and Michigan, as I'm familiar with, will suffer longer than many other states, but they have been suffering for many years. Each area, state or region will go through a different level of 'recession' based upon it's economic status and ability to diversify employment and opportunities. The 'recovery' will occur in a few states at a time and like a rising tide that raises all boats, all states and regions will eventually follow based upon their individual characteristics. Some will improve more than others but all will improve some.
    Someday starts today
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  10. #10
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    The stores that will hurt first are the mom and pop shops. They may recieve some business from the locals who do not want see their favorite store go under, but overall they will lose business due to the majority of people scaling back on expenses.

    The strong will survive: this is the overall theme going on. Stores will have to have a strong cash reserve. This is where the large players will do better than the small local shops.

    There are other factors that go into play when considering the failure of small businesses however, nothing is cut and dry. Small stores that sell necessities will fair better than stores selling higher priced luxury items.

    Some small shops are actually doing better business than in previous years thanks to the current economy. Examples of this include a shoe repair shop and a clothing repair shop, their business has almost doubled. another example is auto repair shops. Basicaly, people are holding on to and fixing what they have instead of throwing away and buying new.

    Looking at this, you can see where ebay will see a big increase as people sell what they have to get extra money and buy things used to save money.

    Our economy is not strong right now by any means. Home values today fell to rercord lows. Our economy will recover, how long it will take is up for debate, but it will recover. History has proven this.

  11. #11
    Fighting the good fight... Convergence's Avatar
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    The economy "strong"? That's a tough one - I think the core is solid, still lots of fluff and "money on paper" to shed off - akin to having to peel an onion before you get to the part you want to use.

    Our economy has been a bit inflated the last decade or so, a little too fat. One reason was consumers were told to spend, spend, spend - and the mindless simply followed their marching orders. The mindless are doing the same now, marching to the tune of "the sky is falling" - all the while looking for someone to blame. The over-greedy corporate world, with all their billions of dollars, and their experts, either didn't believe there would be a slow down, or chose to ignore it.

    Right now the media has a more doom and gloom topic to discuss now that Bush is leaving office - they have to switch their negativism to another focus.

    All that being said - While driving around this holiday season, I noticed more than a few "going out of business" sales going on in at the brick and mortars - more so than at the CLICK and mortars. And that has appeared to translate into more affiliate sales, at least on my end, in those areas.

    The core is solid and will rebound - hate to say it, but it will probably take at least two more years before the mindless are fat and happy again.

    ~ Denis

  12. #12
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    Everything is relative.
    The U.S. can close 10's of thousands of stores and carry on with some pain.
    What about countries that rely on just one commodity to drive their economy.
    How stupid is that? OIL as an example.
    I can see civil unrest and even revolution in Russia, Venezuela and Iran to name a few.
    Compared to those three the U.S. is in great shape.

  13. #13
    Fighting the good fight... Convergence's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Merchant Consultant Team
    Everything is relative.
    The U.S. can close 10's of thousands of stores and carry on with some pain.
    What about countries that rely on just one commodity to drive their economy.
    How stupid is that? OIL as an example.
    I can see civil unrest and even revolution in Russia, Venezuela and Iran to name a few.
    Compared to those three the U.S. is in great shape.
    Let's not forget China -

  14. #14
    ABW Ambassador Greg Rice's Avatar
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    Let's remember Amazon claims they had the best holiday season ever http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Amazon...-13918688.html.

    A lot of companies will be hurting in '09 but other companies will profit. The sky is dark right now but it's not falling.
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  15. #15
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  16. #16
    ABW Ambassador isellstuff's Avatar
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    It does pay to be aware of the dangers and limit your exposure... Have you all seen

    http://www.retailerdaily.com/entry/r...eets-tell-all/
    http://online.barrons.com/article/SB...cle-outset-box

    Items that I found interesting...

    Sears Holdings debt level by the end of the year could hit 2.2 billion.

    Toys R Us is privately held, but Barron's rated them in the worst condition of all merchants in the survey.
    Merchants, any data you provide to Google Shopping should also be in your affiliate network datafeed. More data means more sales!

  17. #17
    Full Member Greywolf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Merchant Consultant Team
    Russia, China warn of dire economic straits in 2009
    http://www.breitbart.com/article.php...show_article=1
    "Somebody may beat me, but they are going to have to bleed to do it." Steve Prefontaine

  18. #18
    Full Member Greywolf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by knight01
    The economists are doing nothing more than guessing.
    Economists pour over reams and reams of data, and make estimates based off of what the data is telling them, combined with government action, and compared to historical similarities. The dismal science of economics is hardly guessing. Doesn't mean they are not often wrong, but to say they are doing nothing more than guessing makes them sound like global warming alarmists (oops, did I say that?)
    "Somebody may beat me, but they are going to have to bleed to do it." Steve Prefontaine

  19. #19
    Fighting the good fight... Convergence's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Merchant Consultant Team
    China felt almost an immediate impact from our economic slowdown - they have shut down factories already. Now the kids have nothing to do...

    This was the first year, in I don't remember how long, that we didn't see "toy shortages" on the news. Plenty of excess inventory still out there. No reason to make much more if it's not selling.

  20. #20
    Fighting the good fight... Convergence's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Greywolf
    ...makes them sound like global warming alarmists (oops, did I say that?)
    LOL - and polar bears do NOT taste like chicken!

  21. #21
    Full Member Greywolf's Avatar
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    Economists See Dow 15,000 As Fair Value
    More positive outlook from economists, based on data, not guessing.

    http://moneynews.newsmax.com/streett...31/166757.html
    "Somebody may beat me, but they are going to have to bleed to do it." Steve Prefontaine

  22. #22
    ABW Ambassador JoyUnltd's Avatar
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    Unfortunately, bad news is what makes the headlines. And once the first comes out, then a groundswell builds up as each news agency tries to lure more readers with even more dire news. Of course, all are based on facts, data. Mark Twain said "There are lies, damn lies and statistics."

    But that's not to say that the American economy hasn't taken a big downturn. I'm down by AC and the predictions are that 5 out of 11 casinos will be declaring bankruptcy. MGM Mirage halted building. You can't get a low level service job, there are so many people applying. And there are thousands of regional/local stories like this that feed into the larger, bleak picture.

    From Convergence: One reason was consumers were told to spend, spend, spend - and the mindless simply followed their marching orders.
    Isn't that the business we're all in here?

    The corporate chieftans have sold out the American economy while they lined their pockets via golden s (and taxpaper funded in many cases—that means vous et moi). Can you imagine in your wildest dreams being paid millions despite failing?!
    http://washingtonindependent.com/103...is-some-caused
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/06/lehmans-golden-s_n_132258.html
    http://whatilearnd.com/post/52449126/golden-s

    P.S. Unfortunately, the word "parach-te" was automatically changed into a smilie!
    Renée
    Pay no attention to that woman behind the curtain. -Wizardress of Oz

  23. #23
    Fighting the good fight... Convergence's Avatar
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    Hi Renee,

    Just wanted to comment that your sig is one of my favorite quotes

    Quote Originally Posted by Buddha
    Believe nothing, no matter where you read it, or who said it, no matter if I have said it, unless it agrees with your own reason and your own common sense.
    ~ Denis

  24. #24
    Full Member Greywolf's Avatar
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    Interesting that Buddha would say that, since religion is based on faith, not reason or common sense.
    "Somebody may beat me, but they are going to have to bleed to do it." Steve Prefontaine

  25. #25
    Fighting the good fight... Convergence's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Greywolf
    Interesting that Buddha would say that, since religion is based on faith, not reason or common sense.
    I don't believe it was Buddha himself that created Buddhism, but his followers...

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