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  1. #1
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    Last Train For The Coast ...
    2009 will more than likely be the year AM dies ... it can't do anything but for one simple reason: Merchants are all mouth-drooling morons from the planet retarded ... to wit.

    If Goofle has 65% of the GOOD search traffic and YaStupid & MSN have the rest, and either that traffic is generic or SOMEBODY has to pay for it. It's either going to be the merchant or the affiliate who gets it or pays for it. Ain't no one else in the game.

    In the CPA/CPS/CPL model, the more affiliates you have bringing you traffic to view your offers, the less traffic you have to pay for. It's FREE TRAFFIC,
    unless someone buys or signs up for something. So unless, you are taking stupid pills, why would you as a merchant turn down anyone who wants to
    send you LEGIT FREE TRAFFIC. But they do.

    What is so difficult about understanding, EVERYONE is getting traffic from the EXACT same places. DUH! The only difference is HOW much traffic. The object of the game then is to monetize the traffic so the revenue you earn is greater than the costs you incur.

    As an affiliate, why should I send any merchant any traffic for FREE? The answer is simple: I expect to make more money than the traffic costs.

    As a merchant, you have to PROVE to me that my expectation is viable. I do not NEED to be apart of yours or anyones affiliate program.

    It ain't rocket science to be a merchant. Sign up for Pay Pal, sign up for EBAY, find something to sell that people want to buy, put up the product on EBAY, Send traffic to your own EBAY auction or buy it now page, plus you get to leverage the 55 MILLION people who visit EBAY every month for FREE.

    The problem with EBAY is one of SCALE. The problem of SCALE is also inherent in being an online merchant - EBAY or no EBAY. How do you get enough quality eyeballs to see your offers and pay for them to make more than chump change?

    No matter how you slice and dice it, you have to PAY for it. Either in time or money or know how or kissing the Goofle arse. THERE IS NO FREE LUNCH ON THE NET.

    If you are a merchant and you poach my sales or cookies or play the 'black hat' game, you will be toast ... AM is marginally profitabe if that for probably 95% of all affiliates.

    And for that reason, 2009 will see a major contraction of business in all genre's. No money and no eyeballs, means no sales. Some will barely stay afloat, but most will disappear into the ether.

    You can pretty much say goodbye to CJ & Linksuck ... the cancer that inhabits them will eventually kill them and 2009 should be the year it happens.

    However, out of this chaos will come some kick-butt opportunities ... to take
    advantage of them or even create your own, all you have to do is escape from the prison of your beliefs and culture.

    As the old commercial for Oldsmobile pointed out, 'it's not your Daddy's Oldsmobile anymore.' And the GM sloganeers were right ... no one wanted them and guess what ... Sayonara.

    Good Luck in 2009 ... it's going to be a year seriously filled with the events that illuminate our times. And like all years, if nothing gets sold, nothing happens except chaos.

  2. #2
    Moderator MichaelColey's Avatar
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    My affiliate marketing predictions for 2009:

    1) Those affiliates who provide value to consumers will continue to succeed.

    2) Those merchants who truly understand affiliate marketing will continue to see growth in their programs.

    3) Those networks who operate ethically and require those they work with to do the same will see tremendous growth.

    4) There will continue to be challenges.

    5) Around the end of 2009, someone will predict that 2010 will be the end for affiliate marketing.
    Michael Coley
    Amazing-Bargains.com
     Affiliate Tips | Merchant Best Practices | Affiliate Friendly? | Couponing | CPA Networks? | ABW Tips | Activating Affiliates
    "Education is the most powerful weapon which you can use to change the world." Nelson Mandela

  3. #3
    ABW Founder Haiko de Poel, Jr.'s Avatar
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    Google is the de facto, they will only grow as the economy grows and online in 09 will only grow as the need to cut costs with B&M will be more and more necessary with the thin margins after the damaging effects of deflation and lack of consumer confidence.

    CJ, and LS will only continue to grow as affiliate marketing is still the way to go as the pitch is pay for performance even though they are actually obfuscating the behind the scenes theft (parasiteware, TM poachers, and squatters) within the industry all the while earning their percentages. The merchants aren't getting free traffic ... your just losing traffic to the people the networks give preferential treatment to, while the merchant's model is obliterated as return days aren't respected. This isnt' an industry it's orchestrated theft with a few band of thieves and a whole lotta of lipstick, that you just incidentally operate in, and occasionally you can make some money.

    2008 had enough events that "illuminated our times", the question why didn't we learn or act?
    Continued Success,

    Haiko
    The secret of success is constancy of purpose ~ Disraeli

  4. #4
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    I do not NEED to be apart of yours or anyones affiliate program
    For me, that pretty much sums up AM for 2009.. I own my website, so I get to choose.

    AM will not die - just those looking for shortcuts (affiliates using underhanded tactics, and merchants signing up with them). Increased transparency & pressure should force the parasites out into the open...

    Haiko, some of us are doing what we can to act. Until I have a larger group to join, I have no choice but to try to fight my own battles, one merchant at a time.

    I wish everyone a wonderful & prosperous 2009.. I hope this is the year of the good guy... we've earned it..

  5. #5
    Troll Killer and best Snooper!
    I decide when the pigs fly!
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    5) Around the end of 2009, someone will predict that 2010 will be the end for affiliate marketing.
    Now that's a safe bet.

  6. #6
    ABW Ambassador jodyq's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Haiko de Poel, Jr.
    2008 had enough events that "illuminated our times", the question why didn't we learn or act?
    2008 was my year of learning...........2009 is my time to act....the question remains for me is learning how and the proper way to act to get the best results! This battle has not even begun as we are all just learning.... It may be the last train to the coast, but my car still works and I can hold people in it.
    Wear Short Sleeves!!! Support the right to bare arms!

  7. #7
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    Haiko ... Most relevant thing you ever wrote here ...

    "This isn't an industry it's orchestrated theft with a few band of thieves and a whole lotta of lipstick, that you just incidentally operate in, and occasionally you can make some money."

    But we are really all lucky. We could live in Somalia or Darfur, instead of in the places we do ... and for the most part, where we live is part chance. It could be worse.

    We didn't learn or act because we are prisoners of our culture. Hopefully as things get worse, we will act or learn out of desperation.

    Happy New Year ... keep the torch burning.

  8. #8
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    Oh brother, somebody always starts these kinds of threads every single year.

  9. #9
    Affiliate Marketing Consultant Andy Rodriguez's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by net4biz
    2009 will more than likely be the year AM dies
    Fred, it's been a long time ... as I recall, you said this in 2003 too

    How's the teaching job going at the university?

    My prediction for AM in 2009 is that it will continue to evolve, grow into a massive merchant revenue source and more and more people will get into the game.
    Andy Rodriguez Consulting, Affiliate Program Management and Consulting Services, Since 2001
    www.andyrodriguez.com | E: abw@andyrodriguez.com | P: (888) 931-ANDY (2639) | Skype: affiliatedoctor | AIM & MSN: AffiliateDoctor | Subscribe To Our ABW Forum Posts | Follow me on Twitter | Join Our Affiliate Programs

  10. #10
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    2009 will be a difficult year in affiliate marketing no doubt, but it will not be the end of it. It may, however, be the end of unscrupulous merchants as affiliates who will have to face a struggling economy will not tolerate any shady practices. All merchants must shape up or face losing a fair number of affiliates.

    The new year will present certain challenges and certain opportunities to affiliates as have all years past. This year will present more challenges and less opportunities and affiliates will have to adapt to survive. It will not be impossible to thrive, just difficult.

    One of the main challenges that will face us is the economy. With jobs being lost, retirement savings being lessened, and the near future being uncertain, it is needless to say that people will not be spending money as usual and not in the same ways as usual. People will be trying to build back up their retirement accounts and will be saving to provide as much of a buffer as possible in case hard times hit them.

    Another challenge will be the credit market. Struggling card companies will be trying to increase their revenue; this means that they will increase interest rates and hidden fees. They will also lower credit limits and even cancel credit lines to have less extended credit, this will hurt consumer's credit scores. The result, there will be much less credit card usage, thus there will be less online purchases.

    The New Year will not be all doom and gloom. There will some opportunities for affiliates. The save money niche will be profitable, the lower energy costs niche. A niche that has a lot of potential is the job-hunting niche. Affiliates will have to provide good information to attract visitors, as people will not initially be looking to buy something.

    Wal-Mart and Amazon will be good programs because people who are looking to buy something will be looking to buy it at the cheapest price.

    I also predict that ebay will become very popular. People who are in need of money will be selling whatever to get it and ebay will be the main avenue. On the flip-side, people looking to buy things will not mind buying them slightly used if it means a solid discount.

    2009 will not be easy for affiliates, but they will be able to make money if they adjust their marketing strategies accordingly. The economy will recover, and when it does, there will be prosperous times. History reveals this to us.
    Last edited by nobugs; December 31st, 2008 at 12:59 PM.

  11. #11
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    Just Fred being Fred....................

  12. #12
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    The problem with eBay is that it is no longer friendly to the little guy.. new fee structures (and preferential treatment to big players) took care of that this year.

    My strategy for 2009 is the same as 2008 - continue building effective, informative & helpful websites, and increase my share of online spending.

    Remember that 1% of $100 is the same as 2% of $50.

  13. #13
    ABW Ambassador simcat's Avatar
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    Hmmm, there are at least a couple of bankruptcy lawyer affiliate programs out there. Maybe I should look into that this year...

  14. #14
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    Hey Andy ... Happy New Year. The teaching job is fine. And 2008 was a good year from the AM perspective. Not so good from the investment area.

    I don't think I said AM would die, just that CPA would be a big probkem ... and it is a big problem ... In those days, the problem was the usual suspects. Today the disease has spread way up the ladder to the whole world.

    I agree with you that the merchants who can provide value, great service, fair prices and are transparent and ethical in their dealing will profit greatly. I also agree with you that more and more people will get into the AM game - just to try to make ends meet.

    The one problem I see is that if it costs you $.30 to get a targetted click from Goofle, YaStupid and MSN and your merchants EPC is $.17 you are not going to be doing to well on the profit front. It's not writ in stone you will lose, but it is not too likely you will profit either. As Leader said somewhere in so many words, why should I make 10% of a sale for my $.30 click when I can make 100% as the merchant. If they can fix that part of the equation, then they have something.

    Social networking is going to become the driver of business as we move on. Right now, it's children playing but people are just starting to figure out how to leverage it up in the business sense. Blogs will be replacing much of what we call 'print media.'
    There will be massive opportunities for writers and such ... still people have to eat,
    drink some water and such. Linking store to blog in a symbiotic way has a future, I think.

    No one yet has really nailed the relationship between the online and the brick and mortar worlds. When some one really does, they will be buried in money. I would bet
    you will be in the hunt to do that.

    If you are coming to the Summit ... let's meet for drinks ... on me.

  15. #15
    Moderator MichaelColey's Avatar
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    There are plenty of affiliate business models that don't rely on PPC for their traffic. Back when I started (and you too), there was no PPC. We did fine back then with word of mouth and natural search. PPC is just another traffic source to throw into the mix, when it makes sense. It's certainly not necessary.
    Michael Coley
    Amazing-Bargains.com
     Affiliate Tips | Merchant Best Practices | Affiliate Friendly? | Couponing | CPA Networks? | ABW Tips | Activating Affiliates
    "Education is the most powerful weapon which you can use to change the world." Nelson Mandela

  16. #16
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    Mike,

    PPC is definitely not necessary ... IF ... you have the generic traffic.
    A first page rating on a Goofle keyword is a good thing to have, but there are only 8 generic listings on each page. What Goofle giveth, it can easily take away. If you give the Goofle bot what it wants, you are golden. If not maybe not so golden. But, who knows what it wants on what day?

    It's obvious ... Goofle wants 'quality content' - whatever that means. Bookmarks from people who have been there and done that and enjoyed the experience on your pages are also pretty golden. Angie'sList and Craig'sList and clones there of are winners in the 'content' area.

    Still, the world of profit and loss all comes down to 'arbitraging' clicks - what do clicks cost you per visitor and what do you make from each visitor. If you pay ONE cent on average and make TWO cents on average - Kaching. But scaling it up is not easy.

    AM is easy to enter but hard to do. I really don't think most people realize it's not easy being green (profitable) as an affiliate. It takes real work more than a few smarts and a huge amount of trial and error to make anything more than chump change. But even chump change is relevant if you live in a place where an extra dollar a day makes a huge difference to your survival.

    Amazing Bargains is successful because it is a known brand ... but it didn't happen overnight and it took years to build enough of a brand clientele or customers who found what they wanted there to get where you are today.

    Adapt, move on or die ... nature only gives you three choices. Right now we are in the deer in the headlight stage ... what to do is not so obvious. 2009 will be like the dot com bust only worse ... the same smarts that got us thru that fiasco will prevail here as well. The way to do it may be different, but the results will be the same.

    Happy New Year Mike.

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