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  1. #1
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    Holy Cow, Batman.
    Retail sales for December cratered and amazing 2.7%. And the beat goes on.

    Time to trot out the old Woody Guthrie & Huddie Leadbetter songs for the merchant crowd: "So Long It's Been Good To Know You." & "Goodnight Irene."

    "Brother Can You Spare A Dime", the old Rudy Vallee classic, will be covered by both Britney & Miley ... in the battle of dueling divas.

    As the late, great marketing wizard, Gary Halbert once said to me:

    "There is alway more money to be made in bad times than good because money is perceived to be more valuable in hard times. People WANT it more because there seems to be less of it around."

    What should you sell? Whatever sold well in the last recession, depression and such. Just put a new cover on it. Not rocket science, eh?

    You would think that with the temperature dropping faster than retail sales, people would be clicking on more stuff and searching more. The data does not support that over the last few days. Both impressions and even more importantly click thrus are way off.

    It looks like the road from the Affiliate Summit is all downhill. But that maybe is not the case ... people dropping out means less competition.

    To get traffic across the globe will entail paying per click as low as you can get away with for sure.

    CPA is borderline toast. Just as it always is in bad times, unless you have the right products or services that people NEED. When you have NO money, you may want a bunch of stuff, but you will only buy what you really need - with a few exceptions.

    Now would be a good time to start a new search engine, a new bank and new business development company. One thing certain, the pool of really qualified people to make such things go is growing daily and their cost is dropping like a brick.

    Let the games begin.

    "I love the smell of napalm in the morning. It smells like victory."

  2. #2
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    "Time to trot out the old Woody Guthrie & Huddie Leadbetter songs for the merchant crowd: "So Long It's Been Good To Know You." & "Goodnight Irene."

    Or get to work and stop feeling sorry for yourself or using the recession as an excuse. You're talking about overall numbers but we're individuals.

    Side note, there is no market for another search engine, hasn't been for years now.

  3. #3
    2005 Linkshare Golden Link Award Winner  ecomcity's Avatar
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    right on observation... sell necessities and put anything PC on the back burner.
    Webmaster's... Mike and Charlie

    "What have you done today to put real value into a referral click...from a shoppers viewpoint!"

  4. #4
    Full Member Code Monkey's Avatar
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    Retail sales down 2.7%

    That means I *could* have gained 74.6% more this year in my affiliate earnings instead of the measly 71.9% gain because of the recession..
    Stop blaming the parasites, low return days, cookie stuffers, networks, lousy AMs, and TOOLBARS!

  5. #5
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    I got my start in this *cough* GREAT *cough* business when the economy took a dump after 9-11. People were very interested in protection(security cameras and the like). People who have something feel the need to protect it when others have nothing. Makes sense right? Shoplifters, gas station drive offs, employee theft, ect...
    Now however, I wouldn't spend a second of my time promoting electronic merchants even if they increased the the commission from 0.5%(Best Buy ~ HaHaHa) to 0.6%. Too competitive for me when so many other areas are easily available for the plundering.
    BTW, the holidays were good to me. Did other people seem to suffer in with their online programs?

  6. #6
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    The holidays were spectacular for me.. even in a (perceived) depressed niche. But that was a result of new sites I put in place in the past 6 months - gave me an increase in market share (I can see who got bumped down in SERP).

    There are always opportunities if you think outside the box - I've dropped PPC completely now. My own experience has shown organic traffic generates a better click thru..

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by calebtheredwood
    BTW, the holidays were good to me. Did other people seem to suffer in with their online programs?
    I did amazingly well through the holidays and even though I am suffering from Christmas frenzy withdrawal a bit now. I am still seeing fairly good sales for January.

  8. #8
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    From Trusty:

    "Side note, there is no market for another search engine, hasn't been for years now."

    Wrong again ... it's a lead pipe cinch major money maker - provided you don't have Yahoo do it. But you need the right structure, design and some reasonably large coin to get it going.

    Google is ripe for the taking and getting more rotten every day. Yahoo is a non-event.
    MSN Live is still waiting at the airport waiting for their ocean going freighter to show up.

    But, the MSN people were real interested in my plan for a new search engine, when I met with them this morning.

    Your idea of individuals is interesting ... but as John Donne said 400 or so years ago, "No man is an island."

    As the principles of Zen state: "Everything takes place in the present. The past is a memory . The future is an expectation."

    Bring on the depression ... I need to make more money.

  9. #9
    Full Member Cymax Stores's Avatar
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    Sorry to say, but i kinda have to agree with trust, cuz it does sound like you feel a lil sorry for yourself. Best thing to do is think positively and work yourself back up during this "recession" (in quotes, cuz so far i havent seen much of an affect, other than in the auto, housing, and banking industries).

    if retail is down 2.7%, then ok. now is the time to think how can you find ways to turn it around in your favour. maybe a very specific niche that will help you convert during these trying times for basic goods and services?

    as with some of the others here, we had an amazing holiday season. record-shattering even, especially on cyber monday. this new year so far has been well too, with sales expected to grow close to 75% over last months in just our affiliate program.

  10. #10
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    I'm not wrong on that.

    "Google is ripe for the taking and getting more rotten every day. Yahoo is a non-event.
    MSN Live is still waiting at the airport waiting for their ocean going freighter to show up."

    Who? There have been contenders that came along, some with the same or even better relevancy in search like Teoma, just one of many "Google Killers" but it never picked up, why? Basic marketing, power of the brand type stuff. For search, if Google doesn't satisfy, then one of the others will. What will another search engine offer that's not already out there? If somebody comes up with a new aspect, the big ones either buy them up or adopt whatever that new thing is. And people are satisfied with the search engines already out there. I've used Coke references before, so let's have another. Coke and Pepsi already satisfy cola drinkers needs. There is no market for another one, ask Virgin Cola about it. As a cola, what can you offer new? You're not knocking Coke or Pepsi off their 1-2 spots. There is already a high satisfaction level with colas and search engines. I hate to break it to you but Google isn't going anywhere. They're just getting bigger and expanding into many more areas.

    Almost missed the one:

    "But, the MSN people were real interested in my plan for a new search engine, when I met with them this morning."

    And then you woke up from your dream?

  11. #11
    Full Member Cymax Stores's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trust

    I hate to break it to you but Google isn't going anywhere. They're just getting bigger and expanding into many more areas.
    I totally agree on that. I really think Google is going to own all things internet related. I wouldn't be surprised if they end up being some sorta super-corporate-villain in some kinda Cyberpunk story, haha

  12. #12
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    Google is not going anywhere ... but it will eventually die when Serge spends all the money on garbage ... it may take awhile since they have a big bankroll.

    But that does not mean a newbie search engine could not cut into Google's revenue in a major way. It would depend on how the search gets distributed, how you get your stuff listed, costs and benefits to searches, listers and such.

    And I was not dreaming ... it was a for real conversation. Maybe it happens, maybe it does not ... but so what ...as Bob Dylan said: "He that's not busy being born is busy dying."

    As for sales ... 2008 was a bang up year ... but the prospects for 2009 do not look so good for the great majority of businesses - mostly retail. But a few will kick kiester.
    Find the right ones and go to the bank ... if you can find a bank that is still open and not on the shut down list.

    What is happening so far is the stuff you need to make your business coin money is becoming less costly every day ... maintain revenue within reason or grow it organically and realize lower costs - you win the KaChing prize.

  13. #13
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    "Google is not going anywhere ... but it will eventually die when Serge spends all the money on garbage"

    Not going anywhere but will die? That's kind of contradictory. Serge has people to answer to now, the stockholders. They're one of the biggest brands in the world and they got that way with spending how much on advertising? $0. And goes to your other comment:

    "But you need the right structure, design and some reasonably large coin to get it going."

    So who has large coin? MSN does and they spend on advertising, has it helped? They're still a distant third. If anybody had a shot at Google it would be Yahoo and MSN but Google still is way ahead in first and has been for many years now. They're just the Coca Cola of search engines. People are comfortable with them. What reason would you offer up to people to use another search engine? More relevant results, keeping in mind people give the current search engines high marks for that and what I mentioned earlier, you had search engines with just as good or better search results like Teoma and it didn't matter, power of the brand type stuff. That kind of thing is so powerful (and another Coca Cola reference) that Coke drinkers still chose the Original Formula of Coke over New Coke, even tho they preferred the taste of New Coke. That's comfort, familiarity, brand type stuff. What Google has now. Examples of buying up, what Yahoo did when they bought Altavista and AllTheWeb, which was another search engine along with Teoma and others that was called a Google Killer. And AllTheWeb had great results as well and it didn't matter.

    And yes, because of our economy, overall 2009 will be a rough year for many. But every year in this business, even when the economy is good, you still had affiliates failing, doing great etc. This year will be the same.

  14. #14
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    As I said, in tough times, that which does not kill you makes you stronger. There are always winners and losers in any type of economy.

    Keynes cogent commet: "In the long run we are all dead," applies to Google just as much as it applies to us ... but it begs the question: "Can Google outlast a human lifetime, actuarial speaking?"

    You make good points about all the search engines with a RIP sign stuck in them. They all suffered from a belief that: 'Inforamtion wants to be free." And they said to themselvess, in that case, we will give information what it wants. And so information became free - but the messengers died. Oops. And the reaper has a name. Externality.

    To paraphrase Willie Loman: "Logistics have to be served."

    The RIP search engines, the merged ones, the survivors were and are all playing a survival of the fittist game. But with a few mutations, a new species MAY arise.

    Right now Google is the top predator. But it's nothing more than an encyclopedia on steriods without any brains.

    Now advertising is not going to solve MSN's search problem. In a sea of change, inertia is the enemy. Habits die hard.

    But just because taking on Google wouldn't be easy, doesn't mean it can't be done.

  15. #15
    Full Member TerriFalcone's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by net4biz
    From Trusty:


    But, the MSN people were real interested in my plan for a new search engine, when I met with them this morning.
    Hope it is better than Dogpile where you have to scroll past anywhere between one and three pages to get past the ads and find organic results or Alta Vista which is more or less Yahoo with a different look. Ask.com isn't too bad and it came in handy when my computer had picked up the go.google.com virus. If you can create a search engine capable of killing scrapers then I will be among the first to sign up.
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  16. #16
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    That go google crap is a real ***** ... I got it off after about 4 hours of effort.
    I would seriously like to waterboard the people responsible for that POS.

    Got it right back two days later though. Not worth the time to use google to search anymore. You can probably find a link to what you are looking for at Wiki.

    It's probably an insideous conspiracy by Apple to make you want to buy a MAC ...
    But I am seriously considering that option. I haven't heard of many BHO things making it into the MAC browser.

    I can't tell you the whole plan, but it would be in the ballpark of immune to all the "bad stuff "... as for PPC ads ... 2 at the bottom, 2 at the top. One standard search box banner at the top of the page and one get listed banner at the bottom of the page. It all fits in one standard screen. Six listings between the PPC ads ... they rotate using a RAG algo, so every related listing will spend some time on the first page for any searched keyword. SEO will not apply at all.

    We will see what happens ...

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