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  1. #1
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    CPA Blah Blah Blah Never Works Blah Blah Blah
    Yesterday, I counted 461 CLOSED programs on my SAS merchant list. Not to mention a bunch of 'temporarily offline' ones ...

    The universe of viable merchants is shrinking big time ... and each one that goes puts another nail in the SAS coffin ... the fact is 20% of nothing is nothing.

    Saving the system looks to be a devils choice between the Fat Wallets and the unemployment line.

    While there are a few 'ethcial' merchants converting ... the trend overall is heading south. In the game of survival most affiliates are expendable. As a merchant you lose the potential income, but the bills have to be paid somehow.

    It's nothing new ... same thing happened in 2002 and in every recession, depression and popped bubble ever.

    Comissioned sales people are the first to go, then the mediocre producing salaried folk and then a cascading number of everyone, down to the last person whose job it is to turn out the lights and sing the looney tunes song on the way to the unemployment office.

    It's why CPA never works long term ... and all advertising everywhere is CPM based.
    The life blood of any merchant anywhere is traffic, whether it is bodies in the store or eyeball on the website. You want traffic you pay Google, Yahoo or MSN in either time or money - money has more effect.

    What all the champions of CPA forget or never seem to get is that all the money to be had on the net comes from the second click. The winners understand this fact. The losers hit the unemployment line. It's all click arbitrage ... and always will be because the underlying structure is a network.

    You pay Google .$.50 per click ... you need to make $.51 or more per click to stay in business ... if you make less than $.50 it's just a matter of time until you run out of capital.

    100 years of advertising history has proven beyond any doubt that CPM is the lowest cost way to make more than it costs you to exist. And there are exceptions, but they are short and sweet and die a painful death.

    The problem is and always has been, what is the optimum amount to pay for the smallest guaranteed (more or less) profit. If you do better than that number, yippee.
    But you are a dead business walking if you don't.

    Just some more fodder for the cows to chew on, while Brian makes his decision.

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by net4biz
    Comissioned sales people are the first to go, then the mediocre producing salaried folk and then a cascading number of everyone, down to the last person whose job it is to turn out the lights and sing the looney tunes song on the way to the unemployment office.

    It's why CPA never works long term ... and all advertising everywhere is CPM based.
    Uhh... not to derail this thread but that is the mostest wrongest of wrong I have ever heard. The exact oppositte is true and has been shown previously, and it only makes sense. You don't have to pay comissions if there are no comissions. Comissioned sales people and CPA are always the last to go because they cost nothing up front to keep.

    As for the health of SAS, well their ability to monitor all of those merchants just proves more of what people have been saying about their monitoring ability.

    Chet

  3. #3
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    Actually Chet ... it's right ... granted the business is not paying commissions but what happens is MOST of the commission only guys do not try to sell anymore ... the ones that do, tend to make a few bucks now and then.

    Plus, there is a cost for CPA ... the guy who manages the program.

    You would think that what you said was right on, but it's not. If the commission guys do not have a good size number of already existing accounts they usually quit, because it costs them gas and time and such.

    Online it cost them the broadband, hosting, PPC if they use it ... some do go back to relying on SEO.

  4. #4
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    No actually you're wrong net4biz, we're talking about affiliate marketing. You started with:

    "In the game of survival most affiliates are expendable." followed by -

    "Comissioned sales people are the first to go," a couple of sentences later.

    So in talking about affiliates, you're not making any sense since you only pay them if they perform, which is the best model out there, period.

    Seems like you're talking about some job somebody has with a merchant. I mean you're talking about the cost of gas and existing accounts. This is affiliate marketing. Which has nothing to do with this toolbar thread and it's the usual stuff you post.

    **Split out from the SAS toolbar thread**
    Last edited by Trust; February 9th, 2009 at 08:28 PM.

  5. #5
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    Yep ... SOSDD ... We will see who is still hanging in there in a couple of years.

    AM based on CPA is a good model, provided you get paid, your traffic and cookies are not poached, Google doesn't slap your kiester and the merchant actually has a site or product that converts. Just a few minor details you overlooked that are relevant.

    None of those problems apply if you get paid up front for CPM or CPC.

    The guy or gal with the most traffic wins the game if they can just make ONE PENNY per visitor more than it cost them to get that visitor ... they get to stay in business and at scale, it adds up real fast.

    Now, I like to play craps too ... but not when it comes to business. And CPA in this economy is a game of loaded dice against CPA. Do some people win? Sure. And some people win big. If it works for you keep doing it.

    And my point is that it is not the BEST of solutions for staying in business long term.
    Some will succeed at it, most will not.

  6. #6
    ABW Founder Haiko de Poel, Jr.'s Avatar
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    $0.02 for sanity's sake.

    Affiliate marketing, in it's true form [customer acquisition (Cost Per Action/Acquisition)] will not die, only thrive! What causes doubts and skews the equation is when companies abuses the CPA model for customer retention (parasiteware/loyaltyware). Doing so serves to drive costs up and obfuscate the real value of the affiliate marketing model by engulfing it into the "performance marketing" model. Subsequently, the affiliate marketing channel is riddled with strife, theft, misinformation and power plays that only serve to damage the channel and it's actual power!
    Continued Success,

    Haiko
    The secret of success is constancy of purpose ~ Disraeli

  7. #7
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    net4biz, let me guess... you have never worked under or been paid mainly by CPM? Because you have some rose colored glasses and a bizarre version of history.

  8. #8
    Senior Affiliate Manager AMWSO James - AMWSO's Avatar
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    I think it's actually the CPM model that will ultimately suffer as it makes much more sense for most merchants to pay a CPA. In my experience the affiliates that want CPM do so because their traffic does not convert; and they know it. A lot of the CPM ad buys I have done were a waste of time and money.

    Programs will always close and this is just part of the evolution of things. Business is 'survival of the fittest' and some programs just can't/won't cut it. It's the natural order of things which are exacerbated right now as "the economy's bad..." [Think the Jay Leno sketches]. The programs that make it through this period will emerge stronger and will last the distance.

    "100 years of advertising history has proven beyond any doubt that CPM is the lowest cost way to make more than it costs you to exist." I don't get this. N.B. The whole point of CPA is that you know your ROI/ROAS which is why Google is still kicking ass as advertisers flock to use AdWords while the other traditional advertising channels are suffering badly.

    My $0.02 for what they're worth.
    James D. Nardell
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  9. #9
    Life is Supposed to be Fun! Rexanne's Avatar
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    Commissioned sales people are the profit - everyone else is overhead ... I don't think commissioned sales force is the most expendable, I think it's the least expendable. We're the profit.

    What merchants needs to understand is that, in order for this reality to remain viable, they need to keep their ROI strong. ROI is killed by parasitic behavior. I hate to say "you get what you deserve" but I feel like shouting it about now.

    When the affiliate marketing community becomes overrun with parasites, the parasites will have no one else to feed from but the merchant because the affiliates who generate the traffic and sales will be sucked dry. It's senseless but sweet in the short term for specific entities who will profit no matter who gets credit for the sale.

    Lordy, the cause and effect of karma comes to mind ... whoever is in this business for the long term needs to think about all of this.
    Peace,

    Rexanne

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  10. #10
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    First - I have been doing CPM for 25 years ... and commissioned sales for longer - 30 years. They both work. In good times commissioned sales can do well. In bad times they do worse on average.

    But, what happens in bad times is most commissioned sales people run out of capital to live on while they are trying to make the sales. It's no different online, except the costs are somewhat less.

    ONE CENT per click is the same as $10 CPM if you count full page views as the impressions. $.50 for an adword click is $500 CPM if you count full page views as the impressions.

    For example: Modern Maturity magazine has 10 million subscribers or so. It costs $100K for a whole page ad - $100 CPM. My commission for selling the one page is 15%
    or $15,000 ... If I do not sell the page, I do not make the $15,000. But to sell that page, I have to find a merchant who has an ad budget of greater than $100,000 who
    has a product or service oriented to seniors and who wants to reach that audience.
    That part of the puzzle takes time and effort which costs me money. If I find such a merchant and if I sell them on the first call - yippee. If not, my cash register is being drained with each call to get the sale. At some point, if I do not make the sale, I run out of cash to make the calls ... game over for that game.

    Now there are other options, I can cut down the calls to look for the home run advertisers and make more calls to look for a more easily saleable niche - display classifeds for instance.

    Rexanne makes the "Whoever is in this business for the long term needs to think about all of this."

    Off course if you drill down far enough, you come up with the startling fact that ALL business is commissioned sales ... the labels that describe them are just different.

    Haiko has never understood, that making 2 cents when it cost you to 1 cent to do that is a 50% mark up and a 50% profit margin. What matters is how many 2 cents do you make for the 1 cent cost. If Yahoo pays me 3 cents and I spend 1.5 cents
    to get that extra 1.5 cents - it's the same thing as Gino paying me $10 for making a $20 sale of a widget.

    For me to make $1,000, I need to make 100 sales for Gino or approximately 34,000 click thrus to Yahoo. The gross results are identical ... what matters is the net results.
    But since Yahoo pays me by contract and upfront and Gino does not, I will take the Yahoo deal FIRST ... I fully understand I COULD make more money working with GINO and the fact his ON THE COME payments are open ended. But Gino's deal is open ended in both directions: I might not sell 100 widgets is a possibility. YOU CAN'T EAT POSSIBILITY over the long term.

    Take Google: You can do SEO, which can get you very low cost traffic or you can do
    PPC which cost you more. From Google's point ... they pay for being able to provide you with free listings by charging some other person a PPC, if all you want is SEO traffic. Now if you get SEO traffic, that does not mean you make any revenue or a profit, but it does mean you can maybe sell CPM/CPC (same thing just a different way of saying it) at a lower rate than people would need to pay on Google.

    The idea is not to be an affiliate marketer, but to be a mini-Google - so you get the best of both possible worlds. Almost cost free traffic, which insures that ANY sale made for Gino is profitable and an amount of paid in advance income that insures you can stay around long enough to keep doing it.

    Suppose you have three merchants who will pay you $10/CPM for 100,000 impressions, you make $30/CPM which pays your costs. You can now add in a commissioned sales deal and every sale is a profit and goes direct to your bottom
    line. But if you do not have the CPM deal, you may or may not make a profit because costs are usually ongoing things you have to deal with.

    It's not really rocket science. If you don't make a profit, you will eventually run out of capital to even try to make a profit. In bad times, you run out of it faster doing commissioned sales more often than not.

  11. #11
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    Good Morning!!! If I could....well I can.
    When I first started on PPC which was about 2 months ago. I thought wow what a pile of **** they put on my keywords that first page bid is .90 so I did .91...... now the same keywords are upto $5.00 for first page bid...... I pay .05 I generate over 300 clicks per day out of the 300 clicks lets say that on a good day I generate 30% sales out of that....affiliate marketing is wonderful if you know what the heck your doing.
    Wear Short Sleeves!!! Support the right to bare arms!

  12. #12
    Moderator MichaelColey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by James - AMWSO
    In my experience the affiliates that want CPM do so because their traffic does not convert; and they know it.
    Bingo.
    Michael Coley
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  13. #13
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    net4biz, sounds like you have a broken model and want to blame everyone but you.

    You have to adjust, constantly. You want to be a "mini-google"? You get paid for cpm or cpc up front? Wow, you must have some serious muscle because I have always been paid after delivering the agreed upon impressions.

  14. #14
    Newbie Maygirl's Avatar
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    Actually, I see a rise in CPA's. As a merchant it is easier and better paying affiliates than paying salaries. Some of my friends that were AMs are now full time affiliates, some do well, some not so well

  15. #15
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    From the merchant's point of view, CPA is NIRVANA ... no real costs except when you make sales ... I have no problem with that point. And for sure if you find an HONEST
    merchant with a good selling product, you can do well, even with PPCSE action.

    But if the CPA model is so good, why are a huge number of merchants losing money, dropping out like flies and/or having to resort to fraud, cookie poaching and assorted parasite tricks?

    As for my broken model it generated over $100,000 in PROFIT last year.

    I suppose if I knew what I was doing, I could make more.

  16. #16
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    Net4biz, you are the one coming in here griping on how it isn't working, so no need to respond to the rest.

  17. #17
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    Chet ... I am not griping about how it is not working ... what I want to know is WHY it is not working?

    If CPA is a good model, then why would 461 merchants NEED to close their programs?
    No capital, maybe. Bad product mix, maybe. Low commissions, maybe. Mediocre site design, maybe. And a whole host of other reasons that might be part of the WHY.

    I have the affiliate part of the equation down. My problem is the merchants. Why do they need to resort to being an fraud, unlawful conversion and all the tricks to keep from paying commissions across a large number of people without whom they would
    not generate revenue?

    You have 100 affiliates who each bring you ONE sale per day on average. You would think that the goal would be to increase the daily average to say 2 sales per day per affiliate. But it is not. It's almost always how to keep from paying the affiliates what is even marginally fair. It seems that most merchants have this insane idea that they are competing with their affiliates for sales. They all seem to treat the competing channels as 'the enemy' instead of understanding that they are all part of the same team.

    I am down to ONE merchant that I do CPA with ... it's very proftiable. And I send some pretty large traffic numbers direct to EBAY which is extremely profitable. I test a bunch of them every month. But the minute I see a toolbar, high percentage of reversals or any other garbage show up or they fail to make ONE sale in about 200 targetted clicks... it's AMF.

    What the merchants fail to understand, is I am not spending PPC money, time or effort to make chump change on the come.

    Plus, they fail to understand that there is NO SUCH THING as bad traffic, save for BOTS. It provides BRAND RECOGNITION. People do not buy too often from places or the products or services they do not know about first.

    What works is the Clickbank model - not necessarily clickbank or ebooks.

    One GOOD sales page for one product or two or three versions of that product branded to alot of people to inform them that the product exists and where to get it. And targetted also to people who demographically should be interested or are searching for that type or version of that product.

    Now if you take that model and put some effort into creating a blog that is both informative and contains the relevant links and information, you can bag a sale or two or ten or more per day ...

    But as soon as you restrict the affiliates from doing something similar, you pretty much kill your chances of generating scale and incremental sales.

  18. #18
    Moderator MichaelColey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by net4biz
    Plus, they fail to understand that there is NO SUCH THING as bad traffic, save for BOTS.
    If a merchant is paying CPA, I might buy that there's no such thing as bad traffic. There's still a cost related to that traffic, in terms of impact to EPC, bandwidth, site performance, etc.

    If you're asking a merchant to pay CPC or CPM, that's malarkey. If you found a keyword on Google that generated 10,000 clicks a day for $0.05 per click, but none of those clicks turned into sales, how long would you continue paying $500 per day?
    Michael Coley
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  19. #19
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    One thing that seems to be missing from this discussion is the concept of "branded" affiliate sites. Merchants aren't the only ones entitled to brand recognition.

    Personally I have no interest in creating one-off brand pages (for a product/store), it leaves me too susceptible to the whims of that merchant. Nor do I have an interest in click arbitrage.

    My goal is to create a "brand" of my own.. and the merchants who participate know the kind of coverage they receive. I'm in this for the long haul.. when the time comes, I've built up an identifiable business model for anyone who wants to buy an established website.

    I also have no interest in CPC - why should I settle for pennies a click when my average sale generates $20 commission? Instead I focus my efforts on conversion.

    It's not easy to succeed at CPA, sure, but it's also not easy to succeed at CPM (without significant investment to generate traffic).

    I don't think this fact indicates the death of affiliate marketing, that's a rather silly observation.
    Last edited by teezone; February 13th, 2009 at 07:07 PM.

  20. #20
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    If I found a 5 cent word on Google that got 10,000 visitors per day that did not convert at 6 cents per visitor ... I wouldn't be around too long ... I doubt it would be the traffics fault that it did not make a sale though.

    If I was Coca-Cola, I'd do it forever ... I'd post a screen print discount coupon people could redeem at their local store. I don't need to sell anything online - screen print the free coupon.

    It's all relative. If I'm a merchant and I do not make a sale that $500 tells me ... maybe I should do some market research, testing or redesign the offer, give a bigger discount and such ... it's not just the traffic.

    How do you test banners - buy a 1,000,000 spins, run one banner at 500K and another one at 500K and see how many click thrus you get for each banner at 500K.
    That's a $1,000 at $1 CPM ... say one gets 2% click thru and the other one gets 1%
    click thru. Obviously, the 2% one. If you don't test them, how do you know which one to use? Same thing with text links. Ditto CPC. How many merchants test their banners or text links?

    It's called AFFILIATE MARKETING but most merchants and, for sure, most affiliates do not do any marketing at all - they just post a link and pray.

    But so far everyone has avoided the question:

    Why did 461 SAS Merchants FAIL and have to close their programs when CPA is suppose to be such a good business model?

    Another thing everyone skates by is that as an affiliate IF you get paid CPM or CPC,
    you are actually get make some money. Merchants are on the hook for making sure their programs are legit and honest. You are less likely to get cheated and it is hard to play dirty tricks for merchants.

    You assume ALL merchants are honest and ethical. If they were, I'd be all over CPA.
    But they are not honest and ethical. So until that day comes, I'd rather make enough to survive than make some merchant succeed.

    This internet stuff is not even one generation old ... it's evolving and there is NO one best way to make it work for you or me or anyone else.

    And finally - If CPC dosen't work, why does Google charge money for ADWords?

  21. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by net4biz
    Why did 461 SAS Merchants FAIL and have to close their programs when CPA is suppose to be such a good business model?
    Because SAS caters to small businesses and most small businesses fail. It has nothing to do with CPA. You are making a highly illogical argument.

  22. #22
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    Why did 461 SAS Merchants FAIL and have to close their programs when CPA is suppose to be such a good business model?
    Business is slow, online & offline. It's not some deep dark affiliate-marketing reason.

    You ignored my post and just listed more invented stats. No one said CPC doesn't work - I focus on CPA as my average commission is $20 per sale. And I'm building my own brand.

    CPA is an excellent business model for me as I'm making a living at it. Some affiliate marketers succeed, some don't. Case closed.

    I'm not really sure what this thread is even about now...

  23. #23
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    That 461 is also over how many years? And what Chet said, most small businesses fail. There are over 900 on the network that have $0 7 day and 30 day EPCs. Many of those will probably fail or at least eventually close up their affiliate program. And the failings have nothing to do with CPA. CPA works, that's not even debatable (at least successfully debatable), some merchants don't run their programs right tho.

    "If I found a 5 cent word on Google that got 10,000 visitors per day that did not convert at 6 cents per visitor ... I wouldn't be around too long ... I doubt it would be the traffics fault that it did not make a sale though."

    Then if it doesn't work for you, move on. Not every ppc campaign you start is going to work, it's ridiculous to even think that. I have plenty that haven't worked out. I have plenty that do and plenty that have worked for years.

    The reality is you've failed at CPA and from that, you think everybody will or the model is broken. There is no shortage of affiliates doing great in this business with CPA.

  24. #24
    Moderator MichaelColey's Avatar
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    Everyone keeps ignoring the REAL question... Everyone who ate pickles from 1840 to 1890 have died, and most who died since then have ate pickles. It's obvious that pickles are bad for you, so why do people still eat pickles?
    Michael Coley
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  25. #25
    2005 Linkshare Golden Link Award Winner  ecomcity's Avatar
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    Great discussion guys & gals. Most here do not have a long pre-Internet history of commission sales experience to relate to where Net2Biz is coming from... The basic model of CPA was stolen and implimented from tried and true "Value Added Reseller" models used by the computer distributors and manufacturers. VAR programs also had their flaws as some sales agents or commission paying companies would try to capture the low hanging fruit. The infamous "House Account" transfers to sales Mgrs or company sales folks where netorious for eliminating commission payouts to repeat customers.

    So ask yourself what real "value add" you bring to the table as financial times get real bad. No merchant enjoys paying out commissions to any 3rd party at any time..... period. They see RED when affiliate payouts go through the roof with increasing coupon + commission fees on more and more referral sales. Just like the restaurant owner hates paying Ad fees for the "buy 1 - Get 1 free meal" special offers... he also hates the cash register receipts raped by those coupons when meeting payroll and paying vender bills.

    Here's an absolute fact. Any merchant who has a great product, great service, and can sell 1 product for every 50 visitors to their web site, from any traffic source, is not compelled to play the CPA game.

    They can run a 100% clean program on auto pilot as all real physical click affiliates will convert at the average 1/50 ratio, even if their traffic is sporatic. They can buy their own PPC traffic and generate multiple page one SERP/SEO listings and traffic. They just need more buyers... not traffic!!! Eliminate any incentive affiliates and eliminate coupon cart codes so the cart poachers have no ebiz model to follow. This concentrates the merchant's AM on true "value add" affiliates willing to generate long term motivated buyers. If need be the AM builds satellite sales sites for the merchant which forever drive higher converting traffic then the typical affiliate can generate.

    The object for long term ecommerce success is to generate sub-sites that the boss see generates revenue at over $20.00 per click in Google Analytics.... with no PPC costs.
    Webmaster's... Mike and Charlie

    "What have you done today to put real value into a referral click...from a shoppers viewpoint!"

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