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  1. #1
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    It's Happy Dance Time.

    Yesterday Value Click earnings came out and their forecast for the next quarter.

    You know the owner of the those trusted third party networks - CJ and beFREE.

    There earnings and forecasts were so good their stock price LOST over $2.00 per share. A 25%+ drop in one day.

    In fact, the forecasts couldn't have been any worse. Gee, based on the huge drop in sales postings we have seen and people have been complaining about for 3 months is it any wonder.

    The Professor is in hog heaven. Me too. We have been holding some $10 put options for 2 months ever since, he got banned from the Overstock forum for recommending people short that stock, Value Click and eBay due to they being 'crooks' and all.

    eBay and Overstock earnings are due out soon. So far the prices are down since June...bad earnings will wax them some more.

    You can get rich in internet marketing, just short the stock of the major players when they say things are great and tracking works fine and you have a zillion affiliates saying 'not even.'

    The death knell has sounded for VC. It's one thing to have to deal with one losing proposition - Value Click proper. Add in 2 others CJ and beFree and it's the keystone cops guarding the money vault - oops, no more captial.

    The Santa Barbara unemployment office is going to be real busy, real soon. But I doubt anyone can live on unemployment in Yubbieville very long. Can you say, move to Oxnard and get a job at Burger King.

    Maybe Zorro will rescue them.

    all the way to the bank.

  2. #2
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    Haha thas funny. look like there finally getting what they desevre

  3. #3
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    It's one thing shorting a company and hoping for bad news.

    It's quite another wishing ill on people.

    imo

  4. #4
    Super Sh!t Stirrer SSanf's Avatar
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    Well, I don't really have too much trouble with someone wishing ill on the very people who have done them harm.

    As long as they do no harm to those people, in an overt way, wishing them to fall flat on their behinds seems well within the realm of normal and acceptable human nature.

    Wishing is often confused with raising energy. It is not the same thing and wishing alone is not an overt action. A wish is just a wish.
    Comments are opinion unless otherwise noted. Remember, pillage first. Then burn. Half of all people in the world have IQs under 100. You best learn to trust ol' SSanf!

  5. #5
    2005 Linkshare Golden Link Award Winner  ecomcity's Avatar
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    Trying to mix the advertising mindset with a ethics/trust based pay-per-performance model is destined to fail. One relies upon no responsibility for ROI --only Eyeballs-- the other requires emphasis on conversions with the winners doing more...with less...traffic.

    Look for some real changes when the Feds act upon the spyware/adware popup perps like they did with the ID theft rings and Telemarketers. Even Bill Gates wants the browser hijackers tarred and feathered.
    Webmaster's... Mike and Charlie

    "What have you done today to put real value into a referral click...from a shoppers viewpoint!"

  6. #6
    Resident Genius and Staunch Capitalist Leader's Avatar
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    Pbbbtt, it's not just the forecast that lowered the stock.

    Their stock price most likely fell so far, not because of missing the forecast by a stinking 1c/share [Reuters], but because of the fact that they announced that they're going to buy PriceRunner.

    http://www.e-consultancy.com/newsfea...-shopping.html

    But my concern isn't that their stock price dropped.

    This officially makes ValueClick direct competition, at least to those in the European market. PriceRunner, according to the article, is a comparison shopping site. It sounds like Europe's version of BizRate. The US is most likely next to see them directly competing!

    NO WONDER they put out that pure baloney in the last newsletter, claiming that content sites were better for affiliate sales. I *knew* they knew better than that!

    [Edited to clarify what the raspberries were aimed at]

    <BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Wishing is often confused with raising energy. It is not the same thing and wishing alone is not an overt action. A wish is just a wish. ~Ssanf
    <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

    It's amazing how people get that mixed up so often, isn't it?? You'd think that the fact that there aren't about 5 billion Lotto winners (that is, everyone on the planet) would be proof enough that wishing alone does nothing, LOL!
    There is no knowledge that is not power. ~Hemingway

  7. #7
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    And why not wish them ill...they allow 180 to rip off our sales, cookies, and who knows whatelse and before that it was WhenU and Kazaa.

    The condone fraud and theft...because they don't have the brains or the skill to make a profit without all the crapola.

  8. #8
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    Leader, you missed a big part of the picture.

    Value Click was operating on the sales revenue and interest from their public offering and were borderline profitable if you use all the accounting tricks.

    They have spent a very good chunk of that to do these acquisitions. Accounting tricks can only go so far...eventually the dollars in have to exceed the dollars out from somewhere.

    They were netting 5% plus on their government bonds - some $3 million a year worth.

    They sold them to make acquisitions and the acquisitions are all upside down, so in effect they are out $3 million is revenue they had before they made the acquisitions.

    The forecast was for drastically lower results in the next quarter which is why people bailed.
    Earnings were irrelevant.

    Value Click is a piss ant company relative speaking with so-so management at best. So far they have been hitting foul balls, but the count is now 2 strikes and nasty slider is coming is coming their way. Next.

    It ain't happening. And it's going to get worse.
    Tuesday next when the Google IPO will hit the fan.

    It's not looking so good relatively speaking. Whichever way the stock price goes after this IPO will tell you the real condition of the net marketplace.

    The people we know in this game are all skeptical as can be but will play the game a bit because NO one knows for sure.

    The hedge fund crowd is going to be bidding for some shares in account A to flip it quick. But if the shares don't go up right from the get go they will be shorting the heck out of it in account B.

    If Google has a bad day, the whole tech marketplace will have a bad day - eBay, Yahoo, OSTK et al.

    Sentiment is not on the side of having a good day. Time will tell.

  9. #9
    Domain Addict / Formerly known as elbowcreek Thomas A. Rice's Avatar
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    No way am I going to wish CJ bad tidings: too many good merchants there, and overall I have found them to be responsive when I call them. And yeah, I know, there are some issues where you just can't seem to drag them along fast enough. All that said though, I still like the company, and I wish them financial success.
    Following everyone else is a GREAT way to become average.

  10. #10
    Resident Genius and Staunch Capitalist Leader's Avatar
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    <BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Tuesday next when the Google IPO will hit the fan.

    It's not looking so good relatively speaking. Whichever way the stock price goes after this IPO will tell you the real condition of the net marketplace. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

    My guess is that Google's stock'll start out way overpriced and then plunge like so many do...
    There is no knowledge that is not power. ~Hemingway

  11. #11
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    Here's an interesting take on Google.

    Google is not a search engine...it just looks that way.

    With the advent of adwords and adsense, Google is really an advertising agency doing CPA with a CPC product. The search is a vestige of a former incarnation.

    Publishers are treated as real publishers in that they get paid on and impression/click ratio based on the demand for the targetted eyeball by competing merchants.

  12. #12
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    <BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Jersey Jean:
    Here's an interesting take on Google.

    Google is not a search engine...it just looks that way.

    With the advent of adwords and adsense, Google is really an advertising agency doing CPA with a CPC product. The search is a vestige of a former incarnation.

    Publishers are treated as real publishers in that they get paid on and impression/click ratio based on the demand for the targetted eyeball by competing merchants. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>Don't quite get the logic. Just semantics, I guess. The New York Times is still a newspaper in my mind even though it sells ads. Or it just looks like one?

    I guess it all depends on how you relate to it. If you're looking for a recipe for Rhubarb pie, then it still is a search engine. If you're looking for a place to invest your advertising dollar, it's an advertising medium.

    The vast majority of Google visitors fall into the first category.

    Wayne

  13. #13
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    Agreed Wayne, the old professor would always like to play these word games, it helps people hide the scams they are trying to run i guess...

    But if someone was disposed to actually try to affect CJ.

    You could look for names of people who are either big investments, or individual analysts who have given recommendations.

    Send them a pleasant letter how the CJ arm is propping up their profits by allowing scumware in, show the ebates jump from 2 million to 6 million users at a blink of breaking a promise, then show them the new laws coming out against spyware/scumware - and ask them what will CJ's profits be like if they remove these players? Have them ask CJ.

    I once did this for a transit company that supplied bandwidth to spammers - i ended up on a conference call with the company, investor (major investment house) and the spammer. It was hilarious.

    Analysts and brokers are very, very interested - because in their game, any knowledge gained can be directly translated into money gained. Just don't sound shrill or like a loon, so some of you may want to have someone else write the letter...

    Chet

  14. #14
    Lite On The Do, Heavy On The Nuts Donuts's Avatar
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    In the face of coming laws, some of these spyware/scumware shops may now have enough cash stock-piled to try and go legit...

    Given their business interests, maybe ValueClick as an acquisition would be a step towards legitimacy for them...

    Wait, that's too cynical and twisted for even me... or is it...

  15. #15
    Lite On The Do, Heavy On The Nuts Donuts's Avatar
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    And Jersey Jean, you're right about google - people don't pay to search... they're an ad company.

    And now...

    Google IPO means their inovation will steadily slow, eventually to a crawl. Large public companies are too risk averse (it's not their money) and too slow to change (group leadership and differing interests). They don't lead, they follow. They seek scale through market share and monopolization. Can't do that for long on the Internet - innovation wins every time. They'll have IPO cash to buy innovation for a while, but it won't last. First clue will be hearing that one of the two guys is leaving Google for a new venture... Those that stay will get distracted and buy up tracts of land somewhere or buy some company that's not core to their business cuz they're drunk on press poo-poo's. And soon enough, someone like the 2 dudes who built google in the first place, will come along and brush them aside...

    So there may be a proliferation of viable and real competitors to google to come... good news for us, bids at Google are too high anyhow...

    PS - two scoops of cynicism in my coffee this morning... what was I thinking?

  16. #16
    ABW Ambassador CrazyGuy's Avatar
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    <BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Chez Noir:
    Just don't sound shrill or like a loon, so some of you may want to have someone else write the letter...
    <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>


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