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  1. #1
    ABW Ambassador daiarian's Avatar
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    How will AM's fare if there is a Double Dip recession ?
    With the Eurozone on its knees, Obama struggling for approval of his policies and in the UK the Coalition peeing into the wind do we need to fear for the future.

    There appears to be no intent at global cooperation as each nation grapples with its own problems so what does the future hold for us AM's.

    I believe there is a huge opportunity by choosing the right markets. Probably travel, luxury goods and big ticket items will take a battering but a culture of the need to acquire new things exists so will buyers now be prepared more than ever to set their sights lower and seek out bargains. If so is it now time to get into bed with those merchants operating a "stack em high and sell em cheap" policy.

    What sort of world are we likely to see over the next 5 years, the early 70's in the UK were pretty bad and I managed to escape to the Middle East, but the probability is that things could be much worse and I'm too old to get away again.

    But as I said there will be opportunities so time to get the thinking cap on and seek out those markets, and merchants, that will buck the trend.

    Successio in vicis of adversum

  2. #2
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    I heard it thru the "grape vine".........We will be fine as soon as we all bring our economies in line with the Greek model. Germany is the last hold out.
    You must climb this mountain. There is no elevator. ---- Don't stick your finger in the liquid nitrogen.
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  3. #3
    ABW Ambassador daiarian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Witzer View Post
    I heard it thru the "grape vine".........We will be fine as soon as we all bring our economies in line with the Greek model. Germany is the last hold out.
    The Greeks would have been fine if they had not been sucked into the Mirage - The Eurozone. They, like Italy and Spain may still have been the poor relations within Europe but they would have been in control of their own destiny and not fiscal slaves to Germany and France.

    Us Euro sceptics were labelled fools but our predictions have proven correct the Euro was an ill thought out dream, doomed from the start and as the world rocks at its economic foundations those countries unable to set policies because they do not control their own currencies will suffer most.

  4. #4
    Super Dawg Member Phil Kaufman aka AffiliateHound's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by daiarian View Post
    Probably travel, luxury goods and big ticket items will take a battering...
    Could not disagree more. At least in the US, the rich and super-rich have NEVER had it so good. High-end luxury items will continue to do very well

    Quote Originally Posted by daiarian View Post
    ...but a culture of the need to acquire new things exists so will buyers now be prepared more than ever to set their sights lower and seek out bargains.
    We are rapidly becoming a two-class society with the shrinking, disappearing middle class. Those outside the top 1% that earn 24% of the income generated in the US (and especially outside the top 20% that earn 50% of the income) have re-adjusted their sights, and have been seeking out and will continue to seek out bargains, for the necessities of life, not just as far as discretionary spending is concerned. For large segments of society, there is no more discretionary spending.

    Suppliers of goods can do well if they follow these trends that show no indication of short-term change.
    Since June 10, 2012 a vegan aarf but still writing the Hound Dawg Sports Blog
    "If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?" -John Wooden;
    "Raj, there’s no place for truth on the internet." -Howard Wolowitz[/SIZE]

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  6. #5
    OPM and Moderator Chuck Hamrick's Avatar
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    daiarian I support what you have said but I think you are several years behind on the online model. Last year when I was managing a battery of fitness equipment programs we had a record Q1 (peak) then Q2 fell apart and it was due to skepticism in the economy. Q1 was a record because those with money had been holding off on the spend from the year before.

    With another merchant that sold emergency foods we hit a peak in November. That program went south because they were spending a fortune on TV/radio and felt the affiliate program cannibalized the sales. I am running a competitor and comparing the same period they had a huge peak. It was due to money from the Fed being released which triggered conservatives to plan for the worse.

    We have been seeing the coupon/discount aspect of affiliate program do very well when the merchant has something to offer. When they don't we are getting out competed.

    As for the Eurozone, seems that they and the US are such close cousins. Frankly I would let Greece collapse due to mismanagement rather than have the EU bail them out. Sounded like Italy got China to back them!

  7. #6
    Outsourced Program Manager John Jupp's Avatar
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    I am finding ticket items costing more than $1,000 selling very well but not enough affiliates promoting the big ticket items. Instead far too many affiliates have opted to go the safe route and promote the low end value ticket items and with mixed results.

    There's only so many coupon and low ticket value sites that are successfully run by affiliates. Many would do far better with the periodic sales they achieve by concentrating on the high value items, as they obviously cannot compete against affiliates already entrenched in the bargain basement.
    Flambi Media Limited - USA/UK/EU Affiliate Management Expertise

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  9. #7
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    not enough affiliates promoting the big ticket items
    In my experience, sites that sell big ticket items are not looking to partner with deal/coupon sites.. this is where the content provider has an edge. At the same time, running a content site doesn't leave much time to promote deals! It's a catch-22.. as a site can't be all things to everyone.

    Choosing one model based on your views of the economy, then sticking with it, can be tough. I had a set of high-performing pages that went south when I started messing with them...

  10. #8
    ABW Ambassador daiarian's Avatar
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    Thanks to you all for your thoughts and opinions it certainly does help to understand situations from a variety of angles.

    On reflection perhaps one solution is to have a finger in a number of pies, without over stretching, and cover high ticket items down to penny dreadfuls. You guys have years more experience than me so I will take heed of all you have said and plan my strategy.

    Finance ministers have 6 weeks to come up with answers, fat chance of that but amazingly world markets have reacted positively, but then we all know that markets are driven by the emotions Greed and Fear.

    Lets believe we can all prosper despite what happens.

  11. #9
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    It could be the last day of earth's existence, people will be out shopping on that day. From nickel and dime stuff to the most expensive, there is a market for everything and affiliate sites tapping it all.

  12. #10
    OPM and Moderator Chuck Hamrick's Avatar
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    In my experience, sites that sell big ticket items are not looking to partner with deal/coupon sites.. this is where the content provider has an edge. At the same time, running a content site doesn't leave much time to promote deals! It's a catch-22.. as a site can't be all things to everyone.
    I would have agreed with this after selling treadmills with average orders of $1500 for four years. In November of 2009 a very savvy affiliate approached the biggest program and got them to give him a branded coupon domain (brandcoupons.com), he took over Black Friday sales and cannibalized content site sales. At the same time by biggest treadmill program had me boot all coupon sites. The upset content affiliates in both programs moved their efforts to my merchant and the program blew up. Moral of the story is if you give coupons to one site along with trademark easement they can blow up sales but it comes at the expense of the content sites. Meanwhile the content sites go elsewhere because they are at a competitive disadvantage. On a first click model the content sites would have see a huge increase in sales, on a last click the couponer got the commissions.

  13. #11
    Outsourced Program Manager John Jupp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chuck Hamrick View Post
    .... if you give coupons to one site along with trademark easement they can blow up sales but it comes at the expense of the content sites. Meanwhile the content sites go elsewhere because they are at a competitive disadvantage. On a first click model the content sites would have see a huge increase in sales, on a last click the couponer got the commissions.
    I have seen this and it is a mistake. Exclusive codes are one thing, exclusivity is another. Conversely I have also seen this work (Dell). Sometimes an exclusive arrangement is more about the quarterly result than equality amongst affiliates.

    One thing I like about the program in my signature especially is not the discounting periodically available, but the membership option, whereby a customer who buys and pays for membership receives permanent discounts attributed to that membership and other benefits. The site has dual pricing to reflect this. That model definitely works.

    Big Brands will always have their big promotions and during these, the coupon sites will always perform well on last click, even for big ticket items. However smaller affiliates with content and concentrating on niche perform much better and with this paid members option, the playing field is levelled.

    I have even in the bargain basement area for other retailers noted (t shirts for example), that niche themed and fan based sites outstrip coupon sites time after time as the sites cater to fans. Movie tees, slogans from television series and so on continually get sold in much greater volume by sites run by affiliates catering to fans than any coupon site, even with coupons available.

    There will always be a space for well designed niche sites and these sites can and do perform far better than any coupon oriented site, even the big players.
    Flambi Media Limited - USA/UK/EU Affiliate Management Expertise

  14. #12
    OPM and Moderator Chuck Hamrick's Avatar
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    Part of the reason the #1 manufacturer gave away the brandcoupons.com was that they could not control the couponers. It had become a customer service nightmare where expired deals were found by consumers. They ended up having to give the deal to save the sale thus crediting the affiliate. So they took away all coupons and used a special landing page set through the network redirect.

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