# Expected EPC

1. Todd,

Two stats that I would find useful are: Expected Earnings and Expected EPC. That way, I could compare my expected EPC with my actual EPC to figure out how well I am targetting hits.

Calculating the 3 Month Expected Earnings is simply a matter of taking the number of hits for each advertiser over a three month period, multiplying that by the advertisers EPC and dividing by 100.

To calculate the Expected EPC, you divide the Expected Earnings by the number of clicks.

Comparing my Expected EPC would tell me how well I am doing compared to the herd.

Doing this on my own takes awhile, because I have to look up the EPC for each merchant. CJ could probably calculate the Expected Earnings with a single SQL query.

Calculating and comparing the expected EPC to the real EPC would be one of the best ways to see how an advertiser is doing. It might be worth including the stat in the Performance Level block on the home page.

Again, this is probably a single SQL query on CJs part, and would provide a wealth of information.

boom!

2. The reason I asked was because I've had a big slide in my EPC. I was not sure if this was because I am starting to get more people clicking on bad merchants or if it was because the quality of my traffic was falling.

Having the expected EPC would give me a clue on how to adjust my site. It would really be a valuable number. It is just a bear to calculate on my own, while it would really easy for CJ to calculate.

3. oops.

4. .

5. Also, People who know something about stats, know that average is not the unique solution for EPC,infact there another formulas that every statistical research use, things like EPC gauss graphic or medium EPC (I don't know the names in english) give a better idea of network EPC, including best and worst EPC extreme cases for that merchant.

Fer

6. Fer, it is the Mode value (the most common actual value), or median value - the actual number in the midway point - not the average. And I agree they would be a helpful gauge.

Chet

7. but what does epc alone really mean? if the ad is badly chosen for the traffic, it gets few clicks, and even if they make high EPC, the EPM might be bad. Also should one compare to ones own previous EPC (for a merchant) or to the network wide EPC? Optimize all factors, look at the actual money coming out, in the end of the day all that counts is the (page's/site's/your total) EPD.

8. CTR based on smartzones could compare click ratios and show a per impression earning rate, but I think that very advanced stats like this may confuse non expert publishers.

Fer