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March 20th, 2015, 12:26 PM #1Think this spring will be the same as last year? Think again.
What's your prediction for retail sales this Spring??
Weather trends — and their impact on businesses — are only the same from one year to the next about 15 percent of the time. This results in a lot of year-to-year variability that translates into substantial revenue swings.Weather sensitivity analytics identify the percentage of a total sales affected by the weather. These insights are calculated across categories, by week and by market, from years of historical sales and weather data. A look at the March-April-May period for three retail sectors illustrates just how much revenue the Mother Nature “puts in play” each spring:
- Home centers and hardware stores: $4.1 billion
- Apparel and accessory stores: $3.0 billion
- Department stores: $2.9 billion
March 20th, 2015, 01:44 PM #2
Last Spring rocked, probably the best quarter we've seen in a decade or better.
Wouldn't mind a repeat performance, at the minimum, for this Spring. Have no clue how it will actually turn out as there are so many more variables than just the weather, including 'algos', economy, and even political to name a few...Salty kisses, Sandy toes, and a Pirate's heart...
March 21st, 2015, 08:51 AM #3
From the retail side of things (doing retail shows for my wife's apparel business), this Spring has been much stronger than last year. I think a big part of that has been gas prices, because other than gas prices, the economy really isn't that different.
March 21st, 2015, 11:38 AM #4
Then of course, there is this: From the US Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics -
Number of full time employed US workers, Feb., 2014 - 116,350,000
Number of full time employed US workers, Feb., 2015 - 119,310,000
Number of additional US workers with full time employment, Feb. 2015 over 2014: 2,960,000
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