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November 18th, 2015, 02:17 PM #1How's The Economy? - IsellStuff's Annual Reading of the Holidays
Every year I do a couple of threads on how I think retail sales are going based on my conversion rates and average order sizes. So let the fun commence!!!!
What I'm seeing right now... Window shoppers galore and lower average order sizes.
What I think it means.... I'm not sure. Terrorists and retail shopping don't go well together, but I have been seeing this trend for more than a week.
What I am hoping for.... More window shoppers might mean more buyers later in the season.
What I am afraid of.... To many big retailers are warning and coming in short on earnings. Merchants like:
Now granted, it has been a warm fall so maybe this is one of the reason's for Macy's and Nordstrom's problems (e.g. slow winter clothing sales).
I'm also worried about a December Fed rate hike. Really Fed? December?
What do you all think?Merchants, any data you provide to Google Shopping should also be in your affiliate network datafeed. More data means more sales!
November 18th, 2015, 03:27 PM #2
There has been speculation that the Paris attacks may influence the Fed to delay a rate hike, but oddsmakers still say 2-1 that it will happen, and while it would likely put a damper on sales, it is probably best for the economy and continued recovery, though 4th quarter timing is bad - I think it should have been done a few months ago. The Fed meets Dec. 15 so look for it then.
As to sales, overall Oct sales rose 1/3 of projections, 0.1% vs 0.3% - that’s not good. That was caused primarily by a decline in auto sales with the rest of retail up 0.2%. I saw something that indicated a big rise in rents in 2015 and that that is a primary cause in dampening consumer sales.
November 18th, 2015, 03:50 PM #3
My general read on the economy is that it is quite weak. In particular, I see slow business spending when compared to the beginning of 2015.
Up until now I've thought that the Fed has been talking rate hikes just to keep the stock market from getting too over valued. I just don't see much strength at all from a retail perspective. If I were the Fed, I would be really scared... IMHO, they run the risk of sending us into another recession.Merchants, any data you provide to Google Shopping should also be in your affiliate network datafeed. More data means more sales!
November 18th, 2015, 08:13 PM #4
superCool thinks you are right about what you're saying
superCool doesn't think they will do it this year and probably not next year either. it's an ugly mess
superCool doesn't think this is going to be a great Q4, but superCool has been wrong before
good luck to all