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  1. #1
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    eBay recently instituted a tiered commission structure, with the first tier paying $6 (up from $5). That went in June 1.

    In May, I had 5 out of 22 leads extended -- and those will surely be reversed. But in June, out of 5 leads, 4 have been extended. I realize that the sample size is small for me, and that I can't really draw too many conclusions from this, so I’d like to know if others are experiencing a similar increase in reversal rate.

    Why would eBay simply increase their commission when they have a very successful program? Was this increase coupled with a new way to determine if a lead should be reversed, so that their net payout will be lower?

    Anyone?

    Ralph

    http://www.hockeydb.com

  2. #2
    ABW Ambassador FFoc's Avatar
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    I've never gotten a reversal from ebay.

    --
    "No matter how dark things seem to be or actually are, raise your sights and see the possibilities – always see them, for they're always there." – Norman Vincent Peale
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    Ford Fox-body Owners Club
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  3. #3
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    What's the catch -- you don't use them?

    Ralph

    http://www.hockeydb.com

  4. #4
    ABW Ambassador ToughTurkey's Avatar
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    quote:
    I've never gotten a reversal from ebay.

    The only way that can be true is if you do ebay through BeFree, because befree's way of tracking only shows you leads that are legitimate - meaning they've been confirmed by a bid.

    On CJ, my ebay reversal rate is about 25%, and I do find that most extended trxns do end up being reversed. It's unlikely that if someone signs up and doesn't bid immediately that he will return to bid next month.

  5. #5
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    But has anyone noticed a higher reversal rate since the $6 lead went in?

    The program isn't as simple as "user registers, bids, and you get paid". There are at least several things that can go wrong with the process, the most obvious is the "non-US visitor registers via eBay.com link, affiliate gets no commission" problem.

    For all I know if someone registers in one browser session and bids in another, perhaps the lead doesn't count. Or maybe if the bidding takes place on a different PC, it doesn't count. Or maybe there's been another change which disqualifies certain leads.

    Ralph

    http://www.hockeydb.com

  6. #6
    affiliate emeritus missdonna's Avatar
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    For me it's been the other way around. Hardly any have been extended this month.

  7. #7
    Full Member tmd5's Avatar
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    5 is really too small a number to judge.

    9th June I had 16 registrations - 6 accepted.
    8th June 20 registrations - 5 accepted(!)
    7th June 12 regs - 6 accepted
    6th June 19 regs - 9 accepted
    5th June 13 regs - 8 accepted
    4th June 18 regs - 8 accepted
    3rd June 14 regs - 7 accepted
    2nd June 17 regs - 10 accepted
    1st June 22 regs - 12 accepted
    Total: 151 leads, 71 accepted, 52.98% extended
    but 69.44% 8-9th June!

    Looking at the previous month:
    9th May 13 regs - 5 accepted
    8th May 20 regs - 10 accepted
    7th May 18 regs - 14 accepted
    6th May 12 regs - 8 accepted
    5th May 17 regs - 9 accepted
    4th May 12 regs - 7 accepted
    3rd May 12 regs - 7 accepted
    2nd May 9 regs - 5 accepted
    1st May 18 regs - 13 accepted
    Total: 131 leads, 78 accepted, 40.45% were extended

    The bad news is that over those 18 days I've sent ebay 133 so-called leads for which I shall be paid precisely NOTHING, which is psychologically very demoralising to say the least- just $1 dollar each lead would be something to make the effort worthwhile. But I stay with them because of the 149 leads that have been accepted. I appreciate that some of the extensions for June could still be accepted but it doesn't usually seem to happen that way.

    I don't know if this helps with your question. There has been an increase in extensions this month but its hard to say if that would be statistically significant over a longer period.

    "Can I sell the sh*t and will the merchant pay?" ~ Leader

  8. #8
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    Do you guys think they would make it a big story if...

    There are those of us who dumped eBay...and say we all got together and donated any more BIN nickels that show up in our reports to the guy who holds the patent.

    Or what the heck...just give the guy all the nickels we ever made. How would the headline read?

    Former eBay affiliates give commissions to patent holder

    Just a crazy thought.

  9. #9
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    I realize my numbers represent a very small sample, but I still think something is up.

    In May, my "extended" percentage was 22%. In April it was 26%. In March it was 17%, and in February it was 21%. Those numbers are pretty consistent with each other, and all were achieved on about 30-35 transactions.

    In June, I have had 6 leads, and 5 are "extended". That's a whopping 83%.

    That's different enough for statistical significance to not matter. Something has definitely changed; either there are new program rules that no one bothered to mention, or my traffic has somehow radically changed (which I doubt).

    Ralph

    http://www.hockeydb.com

  10. #10
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    Actually thoses numbers aren't enough to prove any statistical significance. Although those 5 reversals out of 6 total would fall among the "tail" of a bell shaped curve, it is not as unlikely as you might think. 6 total leads, in this case used as our sample size, is not nearly enough to prove much of anything.

  11. #11
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    If you look at my "samples" from the past 4 months, I have had about 120 eBay leads, and about 30 of them have been extended/reversed -- equally in each month. I believe that is a large enough sample size to state that my eBay reversal percentage is about 25%, on average.

    I believe that although 5 out of 6 reversals is definitely possible, it is unlikely. Given eBay's track record, it is more likely that some aspect of the program has changed which are causing more reversals. I'm betting it has something to do with foreign visitors, since my site attracts an equal amount of Americans and Canadians.

    Ralph

    http://www.hockeydb.com

  12. #12
    ABW Ambassador FFoc's Avatar
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    quote:
    Originally posted by Ralph Slate:
    What's the catch -- you don't use them?


    The catch is that the site I run that gets the ebay "leads" is on a car site where there are very few new parts available. Most of the users have already signed up for ebay long ago, so I'm just getting nickels.

    --
    "No matter how dark things seem to be or actually are, raise your sights and see the possibilities – always see them, for they're always there." – Norman Vincent Peale
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    Ford Fox-body Owners Club
    http://www.ford-fox.org

  13. #13
    ABW Ambassador Andy's Avatar
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    Has anyone ever had a .05 bid reversed? Seems it would be difficult for eBay to justify that type of a reversal, since you have to be a registered eBay user with an account at eBay in order to place a bid.

    Andy

    _______________
    "If you were born to be shot, you'll never be hung." -Unknown

  14. #14
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    23 Leads thus far in June:

    "New": 2
    "Extended": 5
    "Accepted": 20

    Off-Topic Gripe: I *STILL* think we should get more for a BIN than a lousy nickel...

    -Dan

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