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  1. #1
    ABW Ambassador Ron Bechdolt's Avatar
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    What are your expectations/predictions this year?
    Usually there is a post around this time of year where someone asks what your goals are for the year. I always set mine high just so I do better than next year, but wanted to take a different approach and ask the question differently. What are your expectations this year? What do you think will happen in the affiliate arena this year? What Networks will move ahead, which ones will fall behind? What merchants we should watch cautiously, what merchants should we help gain a foot hold? Where is Google headed and should we even think about the other search engines?

    These are questions I ask my self quite often and just wondering if others think the same way. Anyone have any predictions they want to share? Don't be worried about being off track (Hey, I'm the guy who first predicted LS was doing all the changes in order to sell the company....anything is possible and just could happen).
    Ron Bechdolt | Affiliate Program Management Consultant
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  3. #3
    Resident Genius and Staunch Capitalist Leader's Avatar
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    The other questions are answered in the threads Trust linked to, but I don't remember these being in there (but I didn't refresh my memory... ), so...

    >>what merchants should we help gain a foot hold?

    GoodBulbs.com!
    (Hey, it was a giveaway )

    >>Where is Google headed

    Possibly downhill. I recall reading a post recently that something like 25% click on the AdSense instead of the listings. Sure, that's going to make their short-term financials look great. But, a CTR like that means that the free c*ntent (in their case, that'd be the SERPs) sucks... and when the searchers are the ones voting "sucks" by clicking other things, it may mean G'll eventually be forced to improve their algo (hopefully in our favor), at least, it may if they still make lots from syndicating those free SERPs...

    >>and should we even think about the other search engines?

    I'd think about Yahoo, not because I like them any, but because they have quite a bit of market share. It's a target big enough to bother shooting at, even though it's not as big as G.

    Gates isn't going to just roll over and concede to Google, so MSN Search is one to keep an eye on. For all we know, the next MS operating system may be set up so that access to Google requires a special plug-in
    There is no knowledge that is not power. ~Hemingway

  4. #4
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    "Gates isn't going to just roll over and concede to Google, so MSN Search is one to keep an eye on."

    He won't roll over, he'll just get smooshed

  5. #5
    ABW Ambassador Ron Bechdolt's Avatar
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    Well, I have one site that Google must not like at all, but does very well in sales because of my MSN links. But it is probably the exception, not the rule.
    Ron Bechdolt | Affiliate Program Management Consultant
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  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by TrustNo1
    "Gates isn't going to just roll over and concede to Google, so MSN Search is one to keep an eye on."

    He won't roll over, he'll just get smooshed
    One only bets against Gates and Balmer with great fear - find any other bet!

  7. #7
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    Gates isn't going to just roll over and concede to Google, so MSN Search is one to keep an eye on. For all we know, the next MS operating system may be set up so that access to Google requires a special plug-in
    I thought that was what Brother Bill was hinting at when he unveiled Vista in Las Vegas...this quote from the news article

    Microsoft Vista, which is targeted for shipment in the second half, also has a search function that "cuts across the content" within the PC and its network. This function is aimed at not conceding desktop or Internet search to Google.
    I haven't looked much into Vista yet so am not sure what this comment was trying to get across?

    Oscar
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  8. #8
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    I think Vista and MSN Search is one of the most overhyped things out there, thinking they will cut into Google search. I think Bill & Co. does great in other areas but they're no threat to Google. Like in the prediction thread i posted some stats as to why people search at where they do. People who use Google now will use Google in the future. They'll bookmark it, make it their homepage, if people can no longer use the toolbar, then they'll use the deskbar. I also posted some recent stats on SE usage in the SE forum, Google up, MSN and Yahoo down, even after MSN threw some ad money promoting their search. The main reason people use MSN Search now is because they're on the MSN site doing other stuff. The main reason now people use Google is to search. So Google in the future can take even a bigger chunk of search. They ain't going anywhere, they ain't Altavista like some people kept posting in the past. They have lots of money, lots of smart people, no problem in getting people away from their competition and they're getting into a lot of non-search stuff. This time next year, they'll just be even bigger.

  9. #9
    Life is Supposed to be Fun! Rexanne's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TrustNo1
    I think Vista and MSN Search is one of the most overhyped things out there, thinking they will cut into Google search. I think Bill & Co. does great in other areas but they're no threat to Google. Like in the prediction thread i posted some stats as to why people search at where they do. People who use Google now will use Google in the future. They'll bookmark it, make it their homepage, if people can no longer use the toolbar, then they'll use the deskbar. I also posted some recent stats on SE usage in the SE forum, Google up, MSN and Yahoo down, even after MSN threw some ad money promoting their search. The main reason people use MSN Search now is because they're on the MSN site doing other stuff. The main reason now people use Google is to search. So Google in the future can take even a bigger chunk of search. They ain't going anywhere, they ain't Altavista like some people kept posting in the past. They have lots of money, lots of smart people, no problem in getting people away from their competition and they're getting into a lot of non-search stuff. This time next year, they'll just be even bigger.
    Agreed.
    Peace,

    Rexanne

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  10. #10
    pph Expert! Gordon's Avatar
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    I agree with a lot of TrustNo1's statements but I sure as hell would not bet any of my money against Bill Gates.
    One day parasites and their ilk will be made illegal, I bet a few Lawyers will be pissed off when the day comes.
    Mr. Spitzer is fetching it nearer

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  11. #11
    Life is Supposed to be Fun! Rexanne's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gordon
    I agree with a lot of TrustNo1's statements but I sure as hell would not bet any of my money against Bill Gates.
    Neither would I. He's an amazing guy who deserves much respect.

    I think the expression "know your place" and "know your audience" has great merit, although in this case, Bill Gates has both just as wrapped up as Goog. I think both will be much bigger presences in the coming year. Maybe Vista search will make some noise but the great Goog isn't going anywhere. Vista search will most likely become a default search and Microsoft operating systems will probably come with Internet connection soon. That'll put a cinch in Goog's armor. Microsoft will jump into the ISP game, much like AOL with freebie installs and free hours with the purchase of a new computer. A Microsoft Internet connection CD will be included instead of an AOL Frisbee. The fur will fly because Bill Gates will have figured out yet another way to gain more propriety. "It's all about "traffic" and an ISP homepage is 100% where it's at for the noob. The power of the Internet is so huge now, anyone without a computer and Internet connection is a Neanderthal. So, the noobs getting their first computer to get that vital Internet connection will be plentiful and a powerful new force to mess with. They'll be as yet unjaded, unaccosted by all the crap Internet veterans have dealt with. So, yet another way to train the latest Internet junkies: to buy instead of expecting freebies.

    Lots of possibilities. Bottom line: Bill Gates isn't going to sit back and NOT get his cookies. He has a business to run, profits must be there because he's a public company so he'll keep innovating and building. Search is too powerful a force not to jump into. Actually, I'm surprised it took him this long to figure that out. Should have jumped all over it at least 2 or 3 years ago.
    Peace,

    Rexanne

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