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  1. #1
    CPA Network Rep JP Sauve's Avatar
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    no more oil
    Watched a fantastic but scary documentary last night about PEAK OIL. Specifically that the rising price of energy resulting from the cap we've hit in oil production, and the eventual complete lack of oil because production is all downhill from here, will completely change our lives... and not in a good way.

    The documentary was called The End Of Suburbia.

    http://www.endofsuburbia.com/
    http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00...-8740926?n=130

    I'm not someone who believes OIL = APOCALYPSE, but it certainly is making me think hard about our future 10-20 years down the road.

    Thought it would be an excellent topic of discussion if anyone is game.
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  2. #2
    Moderator MichaelColey's Avatar
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    It's the same thing they've been saying for over 30 years. Previous predictions have said that we would reach the peak in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s.
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  3. #3
    Affiliate Manager Sami B - Uncommon Goods's Avatar
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    Great social topic, JP Sauve.

    Here is my opinion: We all knew that fossil based fuel sources were limited. The only question was when the inevitable end would be. If it's 10 years from now, I don't think it will be end of fast transportation for the world. The scientists will have new and, hopefully, better answers to this problem, as they have had to many other problems in the past.

    Take Toyota's Prius Hybrid, for example. A little known fact is that this car can go up to 34 mile per hour on electric mode, without using any gas or recharging:
    http://www.treehugger.com/files/2006...your_hybri.php

    Not a lot, but let's assume the engineers improve this number by 10 mph per year in the next 10 years, which is not an unattainable goal. That would equal to 134 miles per hour which is excellent even by auto-racing standars.

    Now, how would all these changes affect the life in American suburbia? I have no idea, we shall live, see and learn.

  4. #4
    ABW Ambassador kaizen's Avatar
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    It reminds me of the Y2K scare, a lot of fear-mongering and rather anticlimactic at the end. If nothing else, it's a good excuse to keep oil up at $60+ a barrel. There are still vast untapped reserves available in various parts of the world, and while some of them admittedly are in oil sands, and thus more expensive to process, they are still very viable reserves at present-day prices.

    I believe that the press will move on to something new, in time, and we'll be hearing a similar story in about ten years or so.

  5. #5
    CPA Network Rep JP Sauve's Avatar
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    Well the subject is pretty new to me, so I guess my initial concern was a knee jerk reaction. Thinking more about it though, I have to admit that I'm still not so confidant this can be discounted quickly as Y2K-like scare. There are some industry people in the documentary with some pretty convincing statements.

    Anyone else see the documentary?
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  6. #6
    Crazy like a fox suzigeek's Avatar
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    Take Toyota's Prius Hybrid, for example. A little known fact is that this car can go up to 34 mile per hour on electric mode, without using any gas or recharging:
    http://www.treehugger.com/files/200..._your_hybri.php
    My brother bought a Prius and it will be delivered in 2 more months, I'm so excited for him. If I could do it I'd buy one or my next car will be a diesel so I can convert it to bio diesel and my exhaust will smell like french fries and chinese food! LOL.

    In a past life I spent alot of time in my University library reading a lot of futurist literature about a sustainable future. I read about how it actually would be a good thing for oil prices to go up to the point where people would find it financially unacceptable to force us off of our oil dependency and the market to develope better energy efficient products. It would be a tough change but a neccesary one....I say the sooner the better .
    Suz~~GearGirl~~

  7. #7
    ABW Ambassador JJJay's Avatar
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    You guys better start being friendly with your southern neighbors...

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060315/...ico_oil_find_1

  8. #8
    Prince of Content Vinny O'Hare's Avatar
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    Now is the time for solar stocks - evergreen solar is one that I have been looking at
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  9. #9
    affiliate emeritus missdonna's Avatar
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    Eventually they will begin to run out of oil. But when that happens there will be a long history of inventive people devising better ways of doing things. As oil gets harder to find and recover the price gradually goes up, and the inventors find a willing market for their ideas. It's progress.

    When I was growing up in the '50s we were told they were running out of oil. And that the climate was getting colder and we should worry about the coming ice age. I don't worry much about what the fearmongers shout about. It's almost always wrong.
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  10. #10
    Analytics Dude Kevin's Avatar
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    And hydrogen... There's actually a scientist from Upstate NY (either from Cornell or Colgate) that believes that the fuel supply is actually unlimited. I'll have to look up the details, but it has something to do with what he believes is a misunderstanding on how fossil fuesl are created in the first place...
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  11. #11
    Moderator MichaelColey's Avatar
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    I've been watching the companies doing research in hydrogen engines, but I'm not going to invest in them. They're all bleeding money left and right. I think it'll be the oil companies that make the money when/if hydrogen engines become mainstream. (You have to have distribution channels, and they do.)

    Although Kerry got slaughtered for suggesting a $0.50 per gallon increase in the federal gas tax, I would strongly support an increase if it was redirected back into research and incentives for alternative fuels.

    I think solar could see some tremendous improvements in the years to come. One of the biggest problems with solar is the batteries, and with the focus on hybrid and electric engines, I think battery technology will get considerably better. That will indirectly help solar. (Kind of how the widespread sale of LCD TV's helped bring the cost of laptops down.)
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  12. #12
    ABW Ambassador Trying to Win's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MichaelColey
    Although Kerry got slaughtered for suggesting a $0.50 per gallon increase in the federal gas tax, I would strongly support an increase if it was redirected back into research and incentives for alternative fuels.
    The problem is that that money would not go for that. I may be going out on a limb, but I truly do believe that scientists do already know the answer to the oil problem, if indeed there is an oil problem as we are all lead to believe.

    My insight would be that, the solution is already known, but due to the fact that it would cost so many people their jobs, and affect the economy in such a big way, by basically closing all the oil companies and putting all their employees on the unemployment list.
    That no president will do it until it is the last resort.

    Think for a minute, what effect it would have on the stock market if all the oil companies were to crash, and all their employees out on unemployment.
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  13. #13
    Life is Supposed to be Fun! Rexanne's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trying to Win
    The problem is that that money would not go for that. I may be going out on a limb, but I truly do believe that scientists do already know the answer to the oil problem, if indeed there is an oil problem as we are all lead to believe.

    My insight would be that, the solution is already known, but due to the fact that it would cost so many people their jobs, and affect the economy in such a big way, by basically closing all the oil companies and putting all their employees on the unemployment list.
    That no president will do it until it is the last resort.

    Think for a minute, what effect it would have on the stock market if all the oil companies were to crash, and all their employees out on unemployment.
    Maybe a little more than out-sourcing jobs to third world countries? Not that yours isn't a valid point. It is. What's so sad is the hold the oil companies have on OUR lives by being able to manipulate life as we know it to stay in business.

    Nuclear power is another viable option although it gets people's skin crawling. It's actually a very good, realistic option but not likely to be embraced because of the associations.

    Solar power is SO where it's at. It's free, natural and not dangerous. What's not to embrace?!!! Sorry to the oil companies and their employees but a dinosaur is a dinosaur and we need to get a grip already. Oil has been a bane on our existence for far too long.
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  14. #14
    Moderator MichaelColey's Avatar
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    No offense, but that's a pretty ridiculous argument. The benefits to the economy of a "solution" to the "oil problem" would far outweigh any job losses.

    If a scientist really did have a workable solution, they would make a fortune selling it around the world.
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  15. #15
    Moderator MichaelColey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rexanne
    What's so sad is the hold the oil companies have on OUR lives by being able to manipulate life as we know it to stay in business.
    Do you realize how little of the price we pay for gas is really profit for the oil companies? The largest chunk for the cost of gas is the cost of oil. Second is the cost of refining the oil into gas and distributing it. Third is taxes.

    If you think the oil companies are making too much profit, maybe you should start an oil company? Personally, I like my Internet business. My profit margin is far higher than any oil company.
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  16. #16
    ABW Ambassador Trying to Win's Avatar
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    I’m not saying that it’s the right thing to do; I’m only illustrating my opinion of what our current political situation is regarding the subject. I’m not condoning it nor supporting it. It is merely my observation or the current situation.
    Just a squirrel trying to get a nut, in the Internet jungle.

  17. #17
    ABW Ambassador Trying to Win's Avatar
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    MC brought up a good point regarding Taxes on gas, where I live today the price of regular is $2.49 per gallon, without taxes it would be $1.80 per gallon. That says a lot!
    Just a squirrel trying to get a nut, in the Internet jungle.

  18. #18
    MasterMike HardwareGeek's Avatar
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    Ya know whats funny. A lot of people who want us to stop using oil say we should use something like Ethanol but Ethanol uses a lot more oil than gasoline to make.

  19. #19
    ABW Ambassador JJJay's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MichaelColey
    If you think the oil companies are making too much profit, maybe you should start an oil company? Personally, I like my Internet business. My profit margin is far higher than any oil company.
    If thats the case we are all in the wrong business, we should all open up hotdog stands!!! In the end its all about QUANTITY QUANTITY QUANTITY!!!

  20. #20
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    Well, the electric car has been ready to use for years now and it's been "half" commercialized what? Last year or so? The oil lobbyists have a great power in both your governments and our (in Canada).

    They want money and political power, nothing else...

    That's quite a sad thing, in fact, they live for something that don't really exist.

  21. #21
    Moderator MichaelColey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trying to Win
    MC brought up a good point regarding Taxes on gas, where I live today the price of regular is $2.49 per gallon, without taxes it would be $1.80 per gallon. That says a lot!
    I'm not sure why you think you have a $0.70 per gallon tax. In Pennsylvania, you have a $0.184 federal tax and a $0.267 state tax on gas. That's a total of $0.451.

    Now, look at just the oil cost. Oil is going for $63 a barrel, and you can refine about 42 gallons of gasoline from a barrel of oil. That's $1.50 per gallon, just from the oil costs.

    Refining typically costs $0.20 to $0.30 per gallon, depending on local and state requirement.

    Distribution and marketing costs are typically about $0.20 per gallon. You have to get the gas to the gas station.

    The gas station typically makes around $0.08 per gallon.

    Alltogether, these costs make up about $2.48 of the $2.49 price.
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  22. #22
    CPA Network Rep JP Sauve's Avatar
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    Bio-fuel and hydrogen are supposedly pipe dreams....

    For bio-fuel, it actually takes more oil for the fertilizer, pesticides, and the fuel to run the big farm machines, than you get out of the end product. It's a net energy loser... but sounds real nice and is a great product to advertise.

    Same for the hydrogen. It's takes energy to create hydrogen. There's no hydrogen mines, no loose hydrogen floating around. You need to modify a source that has hydrogen in it. This modification/extraction takes energy. The dream has always been using WATER as a source of hydrogen as it contains a mix of hydrogen and oxygen. Take out the hydrogen and there's just oxygen left as the by product. Problem is that it's not easy to pull the H from H2O. Right now people are using Methane gas (another limited resource) as the source for hydrogen. Either way, you need energy to extract the hydrogen from it's source. Apparently it too is another net energy loser and is only making headway because there's are strong lobbyists behind it.

    As for electric cars. Fantastic ideas I think, and will almost surely be our future... but you need energy to fuel these cars, and right now the majority of our energy is coming from oil products. As is we can hardly keep up with the demand for our energy needs (rolling blackouts in Ontario and California do happen in the summer). If we're at our cap of production, and we have an insatiable need for energy, PLUS China and India are greatly increasing their needs... where's all the energy going to come from?

    Don't forget that energy to power your car is just part of the problem. I don't think they'll ever develop electric powered jumbo jets! And electric powered 18 wheeler to deliver your fruit from Florida might be far down the road in development.

    I don't know all this for a fact, but have seen in the documentary and read it online.
    Last edited by JP Sauve; March 24th, 2006 at 09:06 AM.
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  23. #23
    Crazy like a fox suzigeek's Avatar
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    Hybrid cars use gas and charge thier own batteries without drawing from the power grid. Pure electric cars would usually be plugged in at night when there is low demand for power and most electric is produced by coal or nuKULer power.

    Bio diesel is an alternative right now thats available and the technology to run diesel engines on pure vegitable oil is already there so there is no development cost...its a fringe movement where people literally go to their local restaurant and use their old frying oil that was getting tossed anyway...so no extra processing is going on anyway for that fuel source.

    Little changes lead to bigger ones...I see change coming and economics will be the driving force....the economic needs of the public will push it forward. Its our dollars that drive the economy.

    (the diesel engine was originally invented to run on plant oil not gasoline...supposedly hemp oil but that part may be a rumor)

    Pollyanna strikes again.
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  24. #24
    Yup, Sure ... now let me check ... Cagles Mill's Avatar
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    As stated by a couple others, when full cost accounting methods are used, the production of ethanol uses more oil than it produces.

    As for Hydrogen, personally I think it seems pretty promising. Solar, hydroelectric, nuclear or geothermal power can extract the hydrogen from water. Attach leads to a 9V battery and stick them in a glass of water and you will produce hydrogen (although not much of course). I saw at least one report that claimed that the oil companies have been looking into hydrogen power, but only by using oil to produce it (big surprise, eh).

    I'm surprised no one has yet commented on Brian Appel and his company "Changing World Technologies" which now has at least one fully operational plant in Missouri producing oil from chicken waste products. Scientific American, Discover, Fortune and other magazines have done stories on the company and the results look promising.

    According to the latest article in Discover magazine, Apple's company is finally producing at a profit and can produce oil from virtually any waste product. You can check out some info on the process here:
    http://www.discover.com/issues/jul-0...hing-into-oil/
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermal_depolymerization
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  25. #25
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    I read about this:

    Cattle manure is both flammable and fertilizing.

    Corn makes good ethanol and cattle feed.

    Manipulate a symbiotic relationship:

    "ferment" the manure to split the manure into nitrates and the smelly volatile gases that could both fertilize a corn field and fuel the distillers.

    Feed the spent mash back to cows. We already feed the spent mash from breweries and distilleries to cows. It's high in protien, fatty acids and fiber.

    Sell the cattle on the open market to help reduce the costs.

    If the cows aren't all that hungry, you can make the spent mash into biodegradable plastics.

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