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  1. #1
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    is adsense that trustworthy
    is adsense that trustworthy?

    i mean, it seems like every time my clickthroughs increase, my earnings go up a little while and then drop to where it was ... like it's being reset.

    i have read other people having this feeling. seems like they can't earn above a certain amount.

    is this a valid concern? anybody else seeing this?

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by waytogo
    is adsense that trustworthy? I mean, it seems like every time my clickthroughs increase, my earnings go up a little while and then drop to where it was ... like it's being reset. * * *
    Since Google doesn't share information about the revenue or revenue-split percentage you're getting, you must basically trust them. I have also seen the phenomenon: when my site experiences growth in traffic, my PPC earnings rise proportionally, but gradually drop to nearly the same levels I was seing before the growth.

    I don't think Google is "resetting" or adjusting things based on my traffic volume -- instead, Google AND its advertisers are constantly adjusting which ads are shown, at what bid rates, based on performance. In most cases, the "new" traffic I get is not worth as much as the "regular" traffic -- perhaps the new folks are just browsing or exploring, and are less inclined to click, or even if they click, perhaps they don't buy.

    The "right" thing to do is to participate in more than one network (for example, show Google ads half the time, and YPN ads the other half, or mix up a variety of text and banner ads rotating in the same space). When you do this, you can monitor the results (eCPM) and gradually adjust traffic to favor the networks paying the higher eCPM.

    I recently made a major update (complete revision) to one of my web sites, and at first I also thought I was seeing some kind of "adjustment," so I analyzed the data.

    After applying an algorithm to remove "day of week" bidding effects (using a running 7-day average), here is the activity for the past 20 days (the faint-green lettering says "Daily $ Revenue" "eCPM" "Impressions" and "Clicks"):



    To graph clicks and impressions together, I multiplied clicks times 50 (since I have about a 2% CTR). FYI, the eCPM graph lines represent $1 and $2.

    What I see is that "impressions" are almost a bell-curve, arcing up and down very smoothly; but just as my traffic rose toward its peak, the volume of clicks dropped -- almost as if the curve "bounced" off some limit. I suspect this happened because some of the traffic was driven by non-conforming "web robots" that detected the site update.
    Last edited by markwelch; October 27th, 2006 at 08:33 PM.

  3. #3
    Affiliate Manager Alan Hamilton's Avatar
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    Very informative Mark, thank you.
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  4. #4
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    maybe decrease earning could be 2 factors : adsense blind and smart pricing

  5. #5
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    by adsense blind, you would mean that no adsense links are being put out, right?
    but the number of clicks was higher. so that couldn't be it.

    as for smart pricing (where google do resets the pricing), you need more than one website to make a comparison. that means that for a single adsense account to experience a resetting, you would have to be adding or removing websites from the account, which was not the case. the website/s were the same. it's just that when clicks go higher, the cost per click (not per impression) falls. this happened several times already.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by markwelch
    Since Google doesn't share information about the revenue or revenue-split percentage you're getting, you must basically trust them. I have also seen the phenomenon: when my site experiences growth in traffic, my PPC earnings rise proportionally, but gradually drop to nearly the same levels I was seing before the growth.
    being secretive is like having a pandora's box. i think that if the box is opened and the beans are spilled, google can come down crashing.

  7. #7
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    Google budgeting
    "AdSense Blind" -- I'm not quite sure what this means, but it did give me an idea.

    Keep in mind that Google "budgets" adviews for advertisers, to spread out a campaign so that not all the money is spent early in the day or week. For keyword PPC campaigns, its budgets would be based on clicks, not impressions; for CPM (site-targeted) campaigns, it would be based on impressions.

    When a site has a surge in traffic, Google can't be certain whether the spurt is temporary or permanent, and probably takes some time to adjust the budgeting allocations -- this "adjustment" is probably triggered at some specific percentage above average or recent peak activity.

    That would create a sort of "ceiling" and the budgeting algorithm might explain the "mirror/bounce" effect where clicks seemed to drop off after impressions increased.

    Another possibility is that during the early days of the growth spurt, the new visitors might have clicked at a higher CTR rate, and Google adjusted its budgeting to anticipate that higher CTR rate -- but then if the actual CTR rate drops to the earlier level, then Google's budgeting will reduce the number of adviews and thus clicks for "budgeted" campaigns.

  8. #8
    Prince of Content Vinny O'Hare's Avatar
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    Adsense blind is regular users on the internet can see the ads but ignore them because they know they are ads. Just like the way we ignore that banner ad on the top of webpages that scream to hit the monkey or whatever.

    90% of adsense blind ads are placed by webmasters that don't know how to optimize adsense ads in the first place IMHO of course.
    Vinny O'Hare - OPM - Contact Info email: vinny at teamloxly.com ~ 702-582-6742 Twitter

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by nyfalcon
    Adsense blind is regular users on the internet can see the ads but ignore them because they know they are ads.
    that certainly will not increase clicks, will it?

    But the clicks are there, and increasing.

    Only that the payout's behaviour has a pattern of resetting. and it didn't happen just to a few. many have actually noticed it.

  10. #10
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    sometimes it may happen if people are clicking on ads with less bids. ads appearing first in the html code have higher CPC then those appearing lower. This article may be in your interest (edited out link)

  11. #11
    Prince of Content Vinny O'Hare's Avatar
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    I agree that people will click on the third adsense ad and in some places the click for the top 1 and 2 are way higher than the top bid.

    This is the reason why I rarely run a second set of adsense on a page. Why would I want them clicking on a top 8 or 9 paying ad.
    Vinny O'Hare - OPM - Contact Info email: vinny at teamloxly.com ~ 702-582-6742 Twitter

  12. #12
    Newbie clb's Avatar
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    ads appearing first in the html code have higher CPC then those appearing lower.
    Is this true? Is this on Google's Webmaster Guide?

  13. #13
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    Someone wrote: "ads appearing first in the html code have higher CPC than those appearing lower"

    clb replied: "Is this true?"

    The answer is, "yes, usually, but not always."

    Google does not rely exclusively on CPC or CTR when positioning ads. Instead, it uses "effective CPM" (effective cost per 1,000 adviews) as its measure, so that a high-CPC ad may be placed lower than an ad with low-CPC but higher CTR.

    In general, the clickthrough is higher for higher-positioned ads, so that if there is a block of 4 AdSense ads, the top ad will usually receive a higher clickthrough rate than the second ad.

    However, this is NOT always true, since it depends on the ad text, the relative bid amounts and predicted CTR, and of course the consumer's behavior.

    A clear situation where the #2 ad may be clicked first is if the #2 ad "echoes" the search phrase in its title, or includes some text ("free") that may draw the user's attention. Over time, the poorer-performing ad will usually be pushed downward in the results list. BUT: In some cases, the #2 ad may actually be from an advertiser who has specified that the ad should never be shown in the #1 position (perhaps to avoid clicks from people who don't actually read the ad text).

    Another situation may be where the #1 ad has a high bid rate but a low CTR. Google positions ads based on the anticipated "effective CPM" so it might show an ad in first position which it knows will have a lower CTR but because it pays a higher price per click, it generates a higher eCPM. Just try the math on this: assume that the #1 ad pays 2 cents per click, and the #2 ad pays 1 cent per click. If the #1 ad has a 1% CTR and the #2 ad has a 1.5% CTR, then the eCPM is higher for the #1 ad (1% x 2 cents = $0.20 per 1,000 adviews, while 1.5% x 1 cent = $0.15 per 1,000 adviews).

    Note that low position is NOT always a terrible thing: I have some very successful (profitable) Google AdWords campaigns where my ad appears in position #5 or worse in the search results. If I raised my bids to get #1 position, I'd never make a profit (because the cost increases dramatically and usually the conversion rate drops as position increases), but in position #5 I draw a moderate amount of affordable clicks which drive sales.

    Someone mentioned that they wouldn't run multiple AdSense ad groups on the same page, because the additional ads wouldn't generate much revenue. While that may be true for most sites, it all depends on the bid rates: there are keywords where the #8 ad pays 50 cents per click, and every extra click means real money. I don't run multiple AdSense blocks, but I understand why some sites do so.

  14. #14
    More Cheesier Than Ever Cheesehead's Avatar
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    Sometimes you will be served up ads that just are not a good fit for your site. In that case, you can have that particular domain excluded.
    This World is Not My Home
    We're gonna go inside, we're gonna go outside, inside and outside. . . And then we're gonna go go go and we're not gonna stop til we get across that goalline! Quotes from the movie Rudy, 1993

  15. #15
    Newbie sadiejane's Avatar
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    NYFalcon,

    I appreciate sharing your experience, as not placing second series of adsense ads because of lower earnings potential.

    I need to take another look at my websites. Thanks.

    Warmest regards,
    Sadie

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