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  1. #1
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    If we go to war against Iraq, what do you think will be the effect on the affiliate business? I know during the Gulf War ten years ago, everything just stopped for about 6 weeks because everyone was watching TV. Same thing last September after the attacks.

    Any thoughts?

    ---Hershey

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  2. #2
    ABW Veteran Student Heyder's Avatar
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    I think it will be more of the same but to a lesser degree.

    You have to consider that the shock value of last septembers horrific events kept people in front of the TV. As far as I'm concerned we've been at war now steady for over a year and this is just another piece of the puzzle about to come into light.

    "I find that the harder I work, the more luck I seem to have."
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  3. #3
    2005 Linkshare Golden Link Award Winner  ecomcity's Avatar
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    You can bet the online sales will boom if the radical Jehadi movement or terrorist cells here and in Europe & Canada start doing some Hamas style suicide bombing in the Malls. So many Israelis buy on line since they're afraid to venture out to shop.

    WebMaster Mike

  4. #4
    ABW Adviser Panel Dynamoo's Avatar
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    There's no doubt that 9/11 created a huge downturn in terms of traffic.. some of this was partly due to the fact that the internet collapsed under the demand, (hey look here are my stats). It took maybe two weeks for the traffic to get back to normal, but then it remained pretty constant.. the attack on Afghanistan and the Queens air crash hardly caused a ripple.

    I think war with Iraq is more of the same unless Iraq manages to hit back in which case I think the US (or UK or wherever gets hit) will be in shock and/or worse.

    The solution of course is not to go to war. Also consider that military action by the US (and any allies) against Iraq would be considered a justifiable "police action" whereas if the Iraqis manage to strike back it will probably be considered "terrorism".

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  5. #5
    ABW Ambassador iucpxleps's Avatar
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    Well If US goes to war(I think they will) with Iraq we are screwed as a whole country(Turkey) because its economic bills will be sent to us..to our already screwed economy..as it had been in Gulf War. And worse if we enter the war ourselves, then it will be hellish..I dont even want to think about it..

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  6. #6
    ABW Adviser Panel Dynamoo's Avatar
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    After all, another war in that region is just want we need in addition to Aghanistan, Israel/Palestine, India/Pakistan, the Caucasus etc etc etc. Heck there must be some countries that are at peace, maybe Dubya can change that. [img]/infopop/emoticons/icon_mad.gif[/img]

    OK, Saddam is a very bad man but Dubya seems to be anxious to have war at any cost, buoyed by recent successes but.. HELLO.. remember Vietnam? That was the last time that US forces (and others like the Aussies) were engaged in a major, prolonged ground war and look what happened. All the air power in the world didn't help. If there's a prolonged ground war with Iraq then frankly I wouldn't put any money on the west getting away cleanly. [img]/infopop/emoticons/icon_frown.gif[/img]

    And then there's Mr Blair who seems very keen to commit the British into this engagement, ignoring the fact that:

    a) our rifles don't work
    b) our tanks can't handle sand
    c) our soldier's boots melt in desert conditions
    d) we only have toy aircraft carriers
    e) half our Tornado aircraft need a serious overhaul
    f) we're stretched pretty thing as it is
    g) if the firefighters go on strike (which they're threatening) then all the remaining soldiers will be driving fire engines, and finally
    h) hardly anybody else seems to want to go to war anyway.

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  7. #7
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    Need to jump in here for just a second. As a former US Marine, I have significant thoughts on this issue BUT need not post them here.

    I DO however think we will be going off to Iraq by Thanksgiving or maybe a little later. Looking at Diago Garcia (b52's all ready in place) and Qatar, we are stocking up and Tommy Franks is there now, this seems inevitable.

    During this time, we all know patriotism goes to an all time high and maybe we need to expand our horizons to include affiliate programs along that line. Maybe those sites that would ship to an APO or FPO addy?

    Just throwing out thoughts here so be sure to include yours.

  8. #8
    ABW Ambassador iucpxleps's Avatar
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    <BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by ElaineM:
    Need to jump in here for just a second. As a former US Marine, I have significant thoughts on this issue BUT need not post them here.
    <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

    Well I would definitely like to hear your thoughts though [img]/infopop/emoticons/icon_wink.gif[/img]

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  9. #9
    Super Sh!t Stirrer SSanf's Avatar
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    <BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Heck there must be some countries that are at peace, maybe Dubya can change that. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>



    Don't worry Shrub is trying..............in fact, he's very trying.

    The Wolf Credo: Respect the elders. Teach the young. Cooperate with the pack. Play when you can. Hunt when you must. Rest in between. Share your affections. Voice your feelings. Leave your mark.

  10. #10
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    Well, general thoughts only then.

    Our military is being stretched to the limit and this may just be the breaking point. Manpower is not what it used to be and I've expected the draft to be put back in force since the last Gulf war. If this one doesn't do it, I will be very surprised. Our enlisted people are sorely underpaid and to have military families standing in line for handouts from the community, is shameful. It's always been tough for our NCOs and enlisted to make ends meet but, this is ridiculous.

    Parts to repair equipment are being scavenged to replace parts in our tanks, aircraft, vehicles, guns, etc. Technology is wonderful for our aircraft to drop guided missles, ships with cruise missles, spy satellites, etc. What about our people on the ground, depending on equipment that has been repaired with scavenaged parts by an underpaid, overworked private, who has his mind on how to get the next meal for his kids?

    We will go to war on this one and it won't be quick, it won't be easy and we will face a long haul. Add in our troops in Afghanistan, Kosovo, and all the other hot spots we elected to be "peacekeepers" in and what do you have? A disaster in the making with a good possibility of our sons, daughters, husbands and wives coming home through Germany.

  11. #11
    2005 Linkshare Golden Link Award Winner  ecomcity's Avatar
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    I agree to all your points and would even go so far as to pay 5 cents/gallon of Gas extra if it went to paying and equiping our ground troops.

    WebMaster Mike

  12. #12
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    <BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>
    We will go to war on this one and it won't be quick, it won't be easy and we will face a long haul.
    <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

    I don't believe in war, but I do believe it will be over quickly. Airpower is king, US got airpower and Iraq doesn't. It may be harder to take the cities though, the military can either bomb them or send in the troops, the latter can turn out bad for the Administration. It will be nothing like Vietnam. Vietnam was jungle to hide inside, Iraq is sand and mountain wasteland.

    The one million dollar question is what will happen afterwards. Surely the country would start falling apart, the Kurds will rise in north, something Turkey wont accept, and Iran will try to move in on the southern parts. So who will stay and who will leave?

    My guess is consumer spending will go down if oil prices goes up. Bush would want to avoid that by going in when oil reserves are on top, which they are during the fall.

    -- Less is more --

  13. #13
    ABW Ambassador iucpxleps's Avatar
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    AFAIK We would never accept a solution suggesting a new country taken from Iraqi lands in the north which would eventually spread over our south-east..And the public opionion is to not to go to war against Iraq with US no matter what. As we got the blow in Gulf War..But some argue that we could go into war for huge economical aids..but I dont want war nevertheless..

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  14. #14
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    If I were in Turkey I wouldn't want this war that's coming, either. Much easier for us in the U.S. to say, hey, let's go to war. We'll just watch it on TV and it probably won't have a huge impact on us. Countures in the Middle East have more to worry about, including huge influxes of refugees and economic destablization.

    ---Hershey

    "Wherever you go, there you are."

  15. #15
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    &gt;&gt;We'll just watch it on TV and it probably won't have a huge impact on us.&lt;&lt;

    I'm quite concerned that this will not be the case at all - that we'll wind up with pockets of radical Muslims who are angry that we're messing around in an area that we don't understand (and I'm quite sure the average American - or American politician, for that matter - has no idea what this region really wants or needs), and who will commit acts of terrorism in various parts of the U.S., claiming jehad. This will freak out Americans who aren't used to this type of situation (unlike other parts of the world, where terrorism is almost a daily activity), and it could feasibly do a lot of damage to our economy because of the reaction here. Like Sept. 11 and then some, because it will become ongoing.

    I think we've had it pretty good here for quite a long time, and that if the U.S. government wages this war, it will risk us losing quite a bit of what we've become accustomed to. Sept. 11 already took some of that away - our civil rights and freedom of speech are less than they were before. I honestly worry that a war against Iraq could do damage to our economy and make matters much, much worse.

    J

  16. #16
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    I don't know if this belongs in here, but when I was young a teacher of mine told us about how he and his friends grew up in the sixties. He said that even though they had good times, they always had a feeling of unease because of the cold war, like a shadow looming above them.

    I guess there always will be a war, but I feel the last 10 years have been pretty good. I live in one of the best countries when it comes to peace and prosperity, but lately I have come to understand what that teacher of mine actually meant.

    -- Less is more --

  17. #17
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    Cellophane, the 10 years before Bush II arrived were an anomoly, unlike nearly any other period in our history. Low inflation, cheap oil, low mortgage rates, Cold War over, stock market booming and on and on. We became fat and happy and lazy and self-absorbed like few other cultures on earth. It couldn't last. If those were your growing up years, I am afraid you were a little spoiled, but we all were. Now, with war looming, inflation creeping up and the stock market tumbling, things are beginning to feel "normal" again.

    And Janiss, I agree that there will be reprisals against us if we strike Iraq. We've always fought our wars, except the Revolutionary War and the Civil War, at a safe distance. We are so huge and so powerful that Iraq really can't impact us that much. Not directly, anyway. If the Middle East destablizes, then yes, we could be impacted.

    But just think. If we invade Iraq, topple Huessin and install a puppet government, we'll have our own private oli-producing country! And I'm sure the Bushies haven't thought of that [img]/infopop/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif[/img]

    ---Hershey

    "Wherever you go, there you are."

  18. #18
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    Hersey, you know the theory about our own oil producing country was brought up today on FOX. I think it shocked quite a few people calling in but, somehow I wasn't shocked that badly. Too many years of blind belief in our leaders and then along came slick Willy. Broke every rule in the book and walked away clean as a whistle.

    The reason I said this war would last quite awhile is it's unlike anything our troops have come up against since WWII. House to house fighting and innocents being used to shield militia and weapons are contrary to our way of life here in the US. I would be hard pressed to blow away some school kids to get to the detonation point of a mass chemical weapons stash. Once THAT particular story hit the media, we are toast anyway.

    VietNam was similar in the end, but stories of villages being wiped out by our troops and kids being blown away weren't tempered with the stories of villages harboring enemies under their huts and the kids loaded with explosives walking into our camps. Only when charges were pressed against the officers in charge or if you had personal knowledge of what actually happened, did you ever know the real truth. Hence the name of "baby killers" were given to all VietNam vets and it was an impossible label to live down. BTW as I am a VV, I can say this with some authority.

    I'm very surprised we have not been subjected to more acts of terrorism in our cities. We've had some scares but, so far nothing of the fright of 9-11. I would be horrified to see us in the position of homicide/suicide bombers hitting our malls and places of gatherings (ie:sporting events, etc). I do think the sleeper cells need to realize that some of our good ole boys and gals can indeed hunt them out and they need to get their butts on outta here. We have eyes and ears and if we report somebody (at least in the South), we tend to become a hound dog on you and will track you all the days of your life. I'm not talking about racial profiling either. Anybody is suspect and we are very good at sticking our noses into your everyday life.

    This has been a most interesting thread to read with participation from people all over the world. I hope it can continue with the respect we have shown one another for quite awhile to see how this plays out.

  19. #19
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    In the 60's we had the drills of getting under the school desks. Well, this time, I'm not sure what we will be able to get under. These people are crazy to a T! And the thought that some American companies are being unpatriotic just floors me. We don't want war. I don't want to be forced to wear garb from my head to my toes either. And, believe you me, I'm Not Going To - No Matter What. He/they can just stick it where the sun don't shine! What era is this anyway? Ganghas Kahn or the 21st century. These people need to get a life and realize that the other people have been getting along together for over 20 years now. We don't ride around on horses or live for the most part without electricity. To each his own. And to each his own belief! [img]/infopop/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif[/img] [img]/infopop/emoticons/icon_confused.gif[/img]

  20. #20
    ABW Ambassador iucpxleps's Avatar
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    <BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>But just think. If we invade Iraq, topple Huessin and install a puppet government, we'll have our own private oli-producing country! And I'm sure the Bushies haven't thought of that <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

    I dont believe that there will be no terrorist activities etc after bin laden or saddam in the world. what needs to be done is that G-6 countries should stop exploiting poor countries(which I believe living in one..). it's just because of this "some are more equal than others" attitude..anger will addup on top of hate. You have to cure the swamp, killing the flies is pointless.

    And the stance in the qoute above is plain HORRIBLE we are in 21. century not middle ages or roman empire. And pax-americana is a dream. EVERY nation has its own right to govern itself!

    ps. I'm not against toppling saddam.

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  21. #21
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    Icup, I don't AGREE with the idea of invading Iraq so the U.S. can have it's own oil-producing country, but I think that thought has certainly crossed the mind of those in the Bush administration who want to go to war.

    Hussein has been a problem for years, and we have looked the other way. Now, for some reason, we feel it's time to get rid of him. I tend to agree with that, although I don't think all-out invasion is the answer. We are not an aggressor nation and shouldn't start being one now.

    But a war with Iraq accomplishes three things for the U.S. It takes the attention off of a slumping economy, gives us a foothold in the Middle East and gets us cheap oil, which we can share with those who helped us get it (the Brits).

    ---Hershey

    "Wherever you go, there you are."

  22. #22
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    Okey dokey, lemme see, what was the question? Oh that's right ...

    <BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>
    If we go to war against Iraq, what do you think will be the effect on the affiliate business? I know during the Gulf War ten years ago, everything just stopped for about 6 weeks because everyone was watching TV. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

    I think this is an excellent question hershey; that's why I'm requoting it here .. I'd really like to hear more answers to it myself.

    At my age 10 years ago is hard to remember [img]/infopop/emoticons/icon_wink.gif[/img] I don't remember spending much time in front of the TV during the Gulf War; growing up during the Vietname Era, I've already had my fill of televised warfare. I was busy working for the Fed gov't and trying hard to get out of there by starting my own business in my spare time. The business was doing great for a little over a year, until the first bombs fell on Iraq; then it was like someone had turned a switch and clients stopped making appointments. I don't think it was so much an issue of sitting in front of the TV as people seemed genuinely frightened about the economic impact of the war and wanted to save their money. War tends to change people's perspective of what is worth spending money on. I think some folks were afraid to go out except when necessary. A number of other small business owners that started up around 1989-1990 told me they did wonderfully then took a serious hit the minute the war started. Some survived but were never doing as well afterward, because of the paradigm shift.

    As to how this war may affect Affiliate Marketing and eCommerce in general, I tend think that internet sales will increase as oil prices rise and people once again become reluctant to venture far from home or into crowded malls. It may be worthwhile considering marketing more products that are considered staple items such as clothing. Having grown up with Civil Defense drills myself, portable electronics - portable TV's, shortwave radios, 2-way radios, CB's, police/fire scanners etc. may do well as some camping goods that can also be used for survival purposes. I don't think people will be as tied to the TV news this time so they will want diversion and entertainment at home so will be looking for videos, video and computer games, etc.

    I think Elaine's suggestion about choosing merchants that ship to APO/FPO addresses is an excellent one. Whether or not there is an actual military action.

    Sorry to bring this back to business/economics [img]/infopop/emoticons/icon_wink.gif[/img] but there is so much political discussion going on as it is and I think it's perfectly valid for us to be discussing how we can preserve our livelihoods in the event of a conflict.

    {

    "Laziness, Impatience, Hubris. Pick any three" ~ YAPC 19100

  23. #23
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    You're right, Eaglefire. I started this as an economic thread and it wound up, with my help, as a political one. The question WAS how all this will affect we affiliates. I'm still curious.

    ---Hershey

    "Wherever you go, there you are."

  24. #24
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    A short war IMO might have a temporary negative impact on shopping in general but I doubt as this bad boy should be pretty much a slam dunk. The reason we won so quickly last time was due to the fact that Saddam couldn't feed his troops and they were hungry. Starve his supplies and Command and Control and the feared Iraqi military will surrender in droves.

    <BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Hussein has been a problem for years, and we have looked the other way. Now, for some reason, we feel it's time to get rid of him. I tend to agree with that, although I don't think all-out invasion is the answer. We are not an aggressor nation and shouldn't start being one now.
    <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

    Yes we are an aggressor nation. How do you think this country came to be? We attacked first and then held on for 6 years until the cost of fighting the war was too high for the British to pay.

    Saddam funds the likes of those who flew the airplanes into the Twin Towers and the Pentagon. Time to root him out. The only way to do that is to control the country, the borders and the food supply. Gain control and Saddam will be either flushed out or handed over. His own people despise him.

    Mike

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  25. #25
    ABW Adviser Panel Dynamoo's Avatar
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    The question boils down to "will a war with Iraq cause a recession?" really, doesn't it?

    If taxes have to go up to sustain a prolonged campaign in the Middle East then the answer would be yes. If the war causes instability in the region and disrupts trade, then that's another yes. And if Saddam manages to hit back with weapons of mass destruction it's a you-betcha.

    But just having a war to watch on TV won't make much of a difference to most people.. it's a far away event that doesn't affect most of the population. OK, it took about two weeks for commerce traffic to get back to normal after 9/11, but if we bomb Iraq it's a different set of circumstances.. the economic impact will come if the war becomes costly in terms of manpower, money or getting hit back.

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