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  1. #1
    Affiliate Manager Alan Hamilton's Avatar
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    Stock Traders
    Don't know how many here trade stocks, but for those who do, you may want to check out the "plastic clogs" people at Crocs (ticker CROX).

    My youngest son tipped me off about this one last year when it was around $34, so I picked it up. Their stock shot to over $74 after their 1st Q report two weeks ago. Another potentially good situation for traders is that they are doing a 2 - 1 stock split for all shares owned by May 31st, with distribution of the split taking place June 14th.

    Crocs are knocking the lights out of the market with their earnings, which are roughly double versus Q 1 of 06. With the 2 - 1 split coming up June 14, I thought this might be of interest to ABW'ers who invest in the market. I don't give "tips" on stocks, but I've bought a bunch of this one the past year and look for it to do some good upward movement over the next year. FYI - there ya go!
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  2. #2
    CPA Network Rep adFinityJoe's Avatar
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    Thanks for the heads up. I will do some research on this stock.
    Joe Pantel, Chief Executive Officer [URL=http://www.adfinity.com]www.adfinity.com[/URL]
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  3. #3
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    Hi,

    I 've just checked the 1-year chart and it looks great.
    A little heated right now maybe..
    Should be coming back down to the higher 60's before stepping in.
    And also...it's May. I mean I don't give too much on the "Sell in May" thing
    but I have it seen come true many time - especially when some stocks made a new all time high in April or May after going up for a year..like this one did.
    So I would wait.

  4. #4
    Affiliate Manager Alan Hamilton's Avatar
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    I doubt this one will drop any before the May 31st qualifying date for the 2 -1 split. Anticipation of the split, and Q 2 earnings could take it into the 80's before the split, so we'll see what happens!
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  5. #5
    Prince of Content Vinny O'Hare's Avatar
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    Thanks Alan - I will take a look at it myself
    Vinny O'Hare - OPM - Contact Info email: vinny at teamloxly.com ~ 702-582-6742 Twitter

  6. #6
    Affiliate Manager MINDsprinter's Avatar
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    I want to start a bit of day trading...where do I start? Any suggestions?
    Jason Rosenbaum
    Affiliate Manager
    MINDsprinting

  7. #7
    What's the word? Rhia7's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MINDsprinter
    I want to start a bit of day trading...where do I start? Any suggestions?
    You can start with some tips from the SEC:

    http://www.sec.gov/investor/online.shtml

    http://www.sec.gov/answers/daytrading.htm

    Watch out, I've seen people lose their shirts while day trading.

    This is an interesting online article, he's right about liquidity and volatility; there are some good basics. I took a course in technical analysis once.

    Here's an intro (no, it's not the only one):
    http://www.investopedia.com/articles...dingRetail.asp

    I took this course (in a past life) and the professor is fabulous:
    http://www.nyif.com/courses/tech_1004.html

    Look at:
    The New York Institute of Finance (NYIF)
    http://www.nyif.com/

    FT Knowledge
    http://www.ftknowledge.com/ftk/index.html
    Last edited by Rhia7; May 21st, 2007 at 01:04 PM.
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  8. #8
    Affiliate Manager Alan Hamilton's Avatar
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    Mind,

    You can check out Schwab and / or other online trade firms. Some of them have classes for the new comer. They are generally "pay" classes - but you get what you pay for, so you may want to check them out.

    There are also some very useful newsgroups and forums for traders. I won't post any links, but you can find them doing searches. Do be careful with day trading or any kind of trading. Take the time to get a proper education, the market will still be here. Good luck.
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  9. #9
    Affiliate Manager MINDsprinter's Avatar
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    I'm not interested in putting big money in, just for fun. I've signed up for Zecco, which offers free trades, so I figure that is a good place to start. But those Schwab classes might be worth the investment. When I get a free moment this is what I'll be doing....
    Jason Rosenbaum
    Affiliate Manager
    MINDsprinting

  10. #10
    Affiliate Manager Alan Hamilton's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MINDsprinter
    I'm not interested in putting big money in, just for fun. I've signed up for Zecco, which offers free trades, so I figure that is a good place to start. But those Schwab classes might be worth the investment. When I get a free moment this is what I'll be doing....
    Yes Jason, by all means, whether you want to play with just a little money, or you are building a portfolio, education / knowledge is key to success. If you are just playing with a little fun money, and you do poorly due to a lack of knowledge, you shoot yourself in the foot and never progress to the next level.

    On the other hand, if you pursue the knowledge and then apply it to your new research skills and trading, you learn, and you have a much better chance of progressing. Good luck to you and yes, I definitely recommend the Schwab classes.
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  11. #11
    Internet Cowboy
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    And they make cool shoes too!

    They get prominent placement on any of my sites where I can work them in. Alan, to the best of my calculations that means you owe me about $10,000, maybe more. Pay up dude

    Also, they are not just "plastic clogs". They are made from a patented, heat-activated resin compound that softens with body heat and allows shoe to mold to your foot.
    Note:
    Keen has some similar styles, but some of their's are available with a Vibram outsole


  12. #12
    Affiliate Manager Alan Hamilton's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by UncleScooter
    And they make cool shoes too!

    They get prominent placement on any of my sites where I can work them in. Alan, to the best of my calculations that means you owe me about $10,000, maybe more. Pay up dude

    Also, they are not just "plastic clogs". They are made from a patented, heat-activated resin compound that softens with body heat and allows shoe to mold to your foot.
    Note: Keen has some similar styles, but some of their's are available with a Vibram outsole
    Checks in the mail Scoot!! I refer to them as the "plastic clog" people affectionately. I know that their clogs are resin based and form fit with body warmth, but a rose by any other name..... Besides, it fits better with the Mrs Robinson advice to Hoffman: "think plastics son."

    And, don't think that these ol eyes did not notice that you were wearing a pair of tanish / beige-ish colored crocs at the affiliate luncheon in March. I'd imagine that your contribution to croc sales probably raised their profits for Q - 1, so I'm treating you to my world renowned smoked baby back bbq ribs when you and Judy come in September!! Woo hoo!! Get ready for a taste treat.
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  13. #13
    Internet Cowboy
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    Crocs bought my motorhome

  14. #14
    Affiliate Manager Alan Hamilton's Avatar
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    Passing along some fresh info.....

    http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/tic...42&Symbol=CROX
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  15. #15
    Affiliate Manager Alan Hamilton's Avatar
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    Update on Crocs (crox)
    For anyone interested, CROX closed up $3.16 today to end at $80.87. Tommorrow is the last day that stock acquisition qualifies for the 2 - 1 split that they are distributing June 14.

    I'm in no way offering advice gang, but for those who actually trade, I pass along the info to my ABW brethren and Sisthren!!
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  16. #16
    Moderator MichaelColey's Avatar
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    Ouch, down $25 today, back to June levels! Hope you dodged this bullet, Alan.

    Crocs Shares Plummet on 3Q Results

    P/E is still 35, after the drop. That seems steep for a company with dramatically slowing growth (100+% growth last year vs. 30% estimated growth next year and 26% estimated annual growth over the next 5 years).
    Michael Coley
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  17. #17
    Affiliate Manager Alan Hamilton's Avatar
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    Thanks MC. To the unsuspecting / unknowing eye, it looked like a bleak crumbling. However, I have no doubt that Crocs is looking good, and yep I dodged the bullet by less than 30 minutes yesterday. Sold a bunch at $74.41 that I had picked up two months earlier in the low 40's and then watched it plummet after the earnings release at market close. Funny, I was tempted to hold on to all shares because I suspected they would report very high earnings and revenues. But then the "deal of no deal" scenario crossed my minnd and I decided to sell and then watch...

    Ironically, they set a record for earnings, more than doubling Q3 last year, and shares earned a great return. But they were a couple pennies under consensus. As for 08 growth, Crocs generally stays on the conservative side of reality, so I'm sure the stock will now steadily rise as investors know that it has a solid balance sheet and minimal debt. I'm very curious to see how their new crosslite clothing line works out too. I suspect it will be a big hitter globally. I believe This is a FANTASTIC time to scarf up a bunch of CROX right now, which I did today while it was around $48. Crox is going to rebound very nicely over the next two weeks and beyond, and then I suspect strongly they will have record sales in Q4.

    p.s. this post is not offered as stock advice. I don't give either.
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  18. #18
    Best New ABW Member 2007 sfcom's Avatar
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    This is exactly why I stay away from stocks that trade for under $100. It makes it too easy for the shorts to come in and really de-value the stock. If a $400 stock misses estimates, does it lose this high of a percentage? No way. I have seen many companies die by short selling and although this might never be one of them, just look at the companies over the past couple of years who have declared bankruptcy and look up their historical charts and you will probably see what I mean. My view is that it is just way too easy for the average investor to pick up orders of any sub-$100. When you get into 3 digits, it makes them think the stock is expensive, regardless of P/E or any other ratio. It is a psychological factor.

    -sfcom

    edit: This is not advice, but is my personal opinion. If you want advice, go talk to your dog.
    Last edited by sfcom; November 1st, 2007 at 05:11 PM. Reason: disclaimer

  19. #19
    ABW Ambassador meadowmufn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alan Hamilton
    I believe This is a FANTASTIC time to scarf up a bunch of CROX right now, which I did today while it was around $48.
    Hehehe... I did too, Alan! Got mine at $49 when I checked the market this morning.

    Demand is high in Europe and they simply couldn't meet it. Add to that the market jitters over the mortgage/credit industry and oil and that explains much of the sell off today, IMO. But they're working those distribution issues and are poised for growth in Q1 2008. They're rolling out new product lines and partnering with Footlocker. So far, still looks good to me.

    I never understood the fascination with the shoes til I tried 'em. I'm wearing some now.... Comfy, toasty tootsies.
    -Don't criticize anyone til you've walked a mile in their shoes. Then when you do criticize them, you'll be a mile away and have their shoes.
    - Silence is golden. Duct Tape is silver.

  20. #20
    Affiliate Manager Alan Hamilton's Avatar
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    I appreciate your philosophy and follow that same model in general. However there are exceptions here and there, and in this case it has performed extremely well this year. Crocs being a huge winner in some 25 - 30 trades over the past 7 months.

    Wisely, most experienced investors diversify portfolios with combinations of long term higher tickers, and then maybe have a "toy" or two in the mix. Crocs was my toy this year and it's been a wonderful ride. So an adjustment like today is not really a concern. We'll see if CROX makes it back into the 60's over the next 60 days. In the meantime I'm more than happy with a $26 PSP the past two months.
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  21. #21
    ABW Ambassador meadowmufn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alan Hamilton
    Wisely, most experienced investors diversify portfolios with combinations of long term higher tickers, and then maybe have a "toy" or two in the mix. Crocs was my toy this year and it's been a wonderful ride. So an adjustment like today is not really a concern. We'll see if CROX makes it back into the 60's over the next 60 days. In the meantime I'm more than happy with a $26 PSP the past two months.
    That's pretty much how I invest, Alan. CROX is my toy this year, too. I hope the ride lasts a little longer.
    -Don't criticize anyone til you've walked a mile in their shoes. Then when you do criticize them, you'll be a mile away and have their shoes.
    - Silence is golden. Duct Tape is silver.

  22. #22
    Affiliate Manager Alan Hamilton's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by meadowmufn
    Hehehe... I did too, Alan! Got mine at $49 when I checked the market this morning.

    Demand is high in Europe and they simply couldn't meet it. Add to that the market jitters over the mortgage/credit industry and oil and that explains much of the sell off today, IMO. But they're working those distribution issues and are poised for growth in Q1 2008. They're rolling out new product lines and partnering with Footlocker. So far, still looks good to me.

    I never understood the fascination with the shoes til I tried 'em. I'm wearing some now.... Comfy, toasty tootsies.
    Good for you Meadow. Today was also to a large extent about market manipulation. The market has operated at record levels this year and an occasional manipulation can adjust that. Consensus estimates are a great way to manipulate markets. But in the long term I do not believe for a minute that it will deter Crocs from entering the 3 digit club in the not too distant future. Keep in mind that the 3 digiters began somewhere, just like GOOG.

    With Crocs lean balance sheet, minimal debt, strong operating cashflow, solid margins, attractive license deals, diversification into what promises to be a strong global presence with the new crosslite clothing line, and many new footware styles on the board, I'm confident they will enter the three digit price club in 2008. This stock has been an absolute pleasure to work with this year. So happy to hear that you saw today as a buy opportunity!
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  23. #23
    ABW Ambassador meadowmufn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alan Hamilton
    So happy to hear that you saw today as a buy opportunity!
    Most definitely it's an opportunity for me. Every movement of a stock is opportunity for someone. It just depends on your perspective! And how you're positioned to take advantage of it, your understanding of the forces at work, etc. I am by no means an expert, but I've done decent in the market. It's better than sticking your money in the mattress.

    After I bought some more CROX today, I called my dad (who put me onto the stock in the first place last year) and his first instinct was to buy more too, but he's cautiously waiting til tomorrow to see if it's truly hit bottom yet. If so, he'll probably buy too.
    -Don't criticize anyone til you've walked a mile in their shoes. Then when you do criticize them, you'll be a mile away and have their shoes.
    - Silence is golden. Duct Tape is silver.

  24. #24
    Affiliate Manager Alan Hamilton's Avatar
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    I hear ya. I picked up more again this afternoon when it hit what I suspect will be the bottoming point. This stock has risen and reduced this year on a weekly basis. But with its product line, margins, management etc it has predictably risen every time without exception to a point higher than before.

    08 should be a fantastic year for this company, starting with release of Q 4 revenues and earnings in late Jan. Just a hunch, but I am inclined to suspect that shares bought today may even return a decent profit during the next 4 - 6 market days. Let's see what happens...
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  25. #25
    ABW Ambassador meadowmufn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alan Hamilton
    I hear ya. I picked up more again this afternoon when it hit what I suspect will be the bottoming point. This stock has risen and reduced this year on a weekly basis. But with its product line, margins, management etc it has predictably risen every time without exception to a point higher than before.

    08 should be a fantastic year for this company, starting with release of Q 4 revenues and earnings in late Jan.
    You bet yer sweet bippy I'll be pushing Crocs on my affiliate sites where possible to help 'em out Q4 '07.

    I can't remember the last time I held on to one of my "toy" stocks for more than a year. It's also been a while since I had a "toy" stock. My last one was MGM Grand right before they acquired the Mirage. I just about doubled my investment and got out with a nice profit.

    Other "toys" didn't always pan out, but I consider those investments well spent on my stock market education. LOL.
    -Don't criticize anyone til you've walked a mile in their shoes. Then when you do criticize them, you'll be a mile away and have their shoes.
    - Silence is golden. Duct Tape is silver.

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