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  1. #1
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    ValueClick, soared more than $5 to $33 in premarket trading.
    That is a through away last line of THIS NEWS

    That says "something" about the ad network industry - imo

  2. #2
    ABW Founder Haiko de Poel, Jr.'s Avatar
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    ... but those 'in the know' are most probably shorting VCLK
    Continued Success,

    Haiko
    The secret of success is constancy of purpose ~ Disraeli

  3. #3
    Lite On The Do, Heavy On The Nuts Donuts's Avatar
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    $6 Billion for Aquantive!!! The term irrational exuberance comes to mind. $6B is crazy!

    By grabbing DoubleClick (G) and 24/7 (WPP) and RightMedia (Y), MS was left without a prom date. If people thought G was screwing up for paying $3.1 for DoubleClick, it had the effect of dizzying MS into this $6B desperation move.

    "With about 2,600 employees, aQuantive will continue to operate from its Seattle headquarters as part of Microsoft's online services business. The company, which operates marketing services firm Avenue A/Razorfish, reported 2006 profit of $54 million on sales of $442.2 million."

    $6B for that? A-freaking-mazing!

    There's one girl left who hasn't been asked to go to the prom yet... and since the guys, in this case, can bring more than one date, she's looking smart to be the last available betty. The boys have been twitterpated into a frenzy.

    For all of ValueClick's operational mistakes, their M&A guys/gals are looking really smart to me right now. The only mistake they can make now is playing too hard to get - they're in the catbird seat and need to realize they're still the ugliest chick left - say yes before the prom is over.

    The book that should come later is... "Selling Out Internet Users: Where The Spoils Of The Desktop War Really Went."

    PS - I am upbeat on all this selling/buying, as ownership changes hands and huge public companies run these ad distribution networks, the chance for real change is skyrocketing. I think it started with Rakuten buying LinkShare - looking like a genius move now. The wild west days are nearing their end. If you're an unethical marketer, I'd say you've got about 2 years to learn how to actually sell stuff.

  4. #4
    Lite On The Do, Heavy On The Nuts Donuts's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Haiko de Poel, Jr.
    ... but those 'in the know' are most probably shorting VCLK
    I completely agree with you, except there are so few 'in the know' and financial markets are driven by the masses - who are uninformed. That ignorance is going to cost these buying parties a ton - and I don't mean just VC's (prospective) buyer.

    This is the frenzy before the chill - like the calm before the storm, only backwards.

  5. #5
    Moderator MichaelColey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Donuts
    $6 Billion for Aquantive!!! ... 2006 profit of $54 million on sales of $442.2 million.
    Unbelievable! That's 111 times earnings and 13.5 times sales. There's no way to justify that.

    ValueClick had sales of $545.6 million and profit of $62.6 million in 2006. If ValueClick were valued at those types of multiples, that would put their stock around $70, more than double where they are now.

    Considering that they're one of the last big ad firms that hasn't been bought up, it might be worth a speculative buy. I'm not going to touch it, though. (And I certainly wouldn't short it.)
    Michael Coley
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  6. #6
    Lite On The Do, Heavy On The Nuts Donuts's Avatar
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    In August 2006, the Center for Democracy and Technology (CDT.org) published a report on all the adware / spyware / ad distribution shenanigans (thank you to TrustNo1 for posting about this report then!).

    You can read about it here:
    http://forum.abestweb.com/showthread.php?t=77077

    Here again, are the links to that report:
    http://www.cdt.org/press/20060809press.php
    http://www.cdt.org/privacy/20060809adware.pdf

    Read the PDF file, skip to page 17 and you'll see the names of the parties involved. On page 17 and the 5 following pages or so, you can see it all. They are acting as intermediaries for adware and worse. The CDT's report should have given these buyers (G, WPP, Y, MSN) a clue then about what is really happening.

    Some of the parties revealed were Aquantive, DoubleClick and ValueClick.

    So nobody can claim they couldn't have known that there was a bunch of smoke and mirrors stuff going on here. Crap, little old me read about it.

    Add up the $6B, $3.1B and others recent acquisitions and you can see this is a $10 billion dollar lie being perpetrated on the backs of consumer's mucked up computers.

    In the race for "market share", the buyers are blinded by the frenzy.

  7. #7
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    If they are going to buy valueclick, they might as well buy zango. VC is deep in the crap again. I had thought when they renewed all their old contacts and ways (added on top of the ones they never dropped), that they were trying to sweeten revenue for a buyout. If there is a god in this world, that will have backfired for them and they will pay the price for being as sleazy as they are now.


    Chet

  8. #8
    Lite On The Do, Heavy On The Nuts Donuts's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by chetf
    If they are going to buy valueclick, they might as well buy zango. VC is deep in the crap again.
    Well, Zango's not the only crap they're involved with (as we all know).

    See this brand new report:
    http://affiliatefairplay.com/newsblo...r-but-reality/

    And I think it's safe to assume that ValueClick isn't the only party the FTC is talking to. Sleazeballs, I can hear your butts puckering - it seems times they are a changing.

  9. #9
    Verbosely Virtuous Mutt spacedog's Avatar
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    Hey Donuts,

    excuse my relative ignorance, but who is WPP?

    Edited to add: never mind, I found them at wpp dot com. 97,000 employees -- odd that I've never heard of them until now.
    Last edited by spacedog; May 18th, 2007 at 05:28 PM. Reason: figured it out

  10. #10
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    how in the world does one justify such a purchase????

    I guess these companies are in a buying frenzy or they are sitting on too much cash.

  11. #11
    ABW Ambassador Snib's Avatar
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    I think MSN is afraid of Google.

    - Scott
    Hatred stirs up strife, But love covers all transgressions.

  12. #12
    ABW Ambassador Sam Bay's Avatar
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    Wow, you guys are so good; just by looking at the public financial figures, you can know if a deal is "way overvalued!".

    Microsoft makes $55 million, in net profit, in one day! A whole million more than the aQuantive made through the whole year in 2006. There is much more than financials here. So, I wouldn't bet against Microsoft's judgement so quickly.

  13. #13

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    Doesn't this remind us all of the 2000 dot bomb failures and the industry at the time? Over rated and overpriced companies certainly not worth the paper they were created on in the first place.

    Seems like we are coming full circle again with big companies like google buy other .com's instead of wallstreet doing all the damage.

  14. #14
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    My thoughts exactly, nakedgamer.

  15. #15
    Resident Genius and Staunch Capitalist Leader's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Donuts
    That ignorance is going to cost these buying parties a ton - and I don't mean just VC's (prospective) buyer.
    The stock price jump and your comment both bring the same question to mind:

    So, who's the likely buyer?

  16. #16
    Full Member ske9963's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nakedgamer
    Doesn't this remind us all of the 2000 dot bomb failures and the industry at the time? Over rated and overpriced companies certainly not worth the paper they were created on in the first place.

    Seems like we are coming full circle again with big companies like google buy other .com's instead of wallstreet doing all the damage.
    Hang on to your socks.

    DOT -BOMB coming to a theatre near you in 2 0 0 8



    Quote Originally Posted by Leader
    The stock price jump and your comment both bring the same question to mind:

    So, who's the likely buyer?
    Investors who look at numbers and sitting in their posh leather chair smoking a cigar aka institutional investors. They can move a market as you will be suprised how much money they play with.

    On a site note: I think the top 1% of institutional investors make $28k in 12 seconds (in personal salary), according to a TV news coverage.
    Ma, where the beer? :escape:

  17. #17
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    Investors who look at numbers and sitting in their posh leather chair smoking a cigar aka institutional investors. They can move a market as you will be suprised how much money they play with.
    Yeah, but I meant specifically!

    Hang on to your socks.

    DOT -BOMB coming to a theatre near you in 2 0 0 8
    I've been predicting it for I think over a year now...

    The balloon is certainly getting stretched very thin. Only a matter of time before the *POP!*
    There is no knowledge that is not power. ~Hemingway

  18. #18
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    But who is going to bomb? Google? Microsoft?

    The difference this time around, no new companies are building out on their own. They are all being aquired by larger companies that could absorb the losses if they had to. I don't think we will see a bomb coming very soon... and if you keep predicting something will happen and it doesn't happen for a year - if it does happen, you didn't predict it.

    Chet

  19. #19
    Resident Genius and Staunch Capitalist Leader's Avatar
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    and if you keep predicting something will happen and it doesn't happen for a year - if it does happen, you didn't predict it.
    This isn't the weather I'm talking about, it's a longer-term effect.

    What you're saying is akin to saying that those people who predicted New Orleans levee failures DECADES in advance "didn't predict it" because it took decades for Katrina to hit. Preposterous!

    Saying something will happen way ahead of when it does is the very meaning of the word "prediction."

    Trying to redefine words to suit yourself is just silly.

    I said back when some fool paid a big chunk for MySpace that within a year or two the dot-bomb 2.0 was on the way, and I still believe it is. The bubble's even bigger now; there's way too many tales of big money for little value going around lately.

    They are all being aquired by larger companies that could absorb the losses if they had to.
    Those "larger companies" won't be all that much larger if they keep torching their money.

    Even if they don't die outright, they'll be sore from the drubbing. For an offline example, buying Chrysler didn't kill Daimler-Benz, either, but the deal was still a definite bomb.

    But who is going to bomb? Google?
    Yeah, Google! They're throwing money away right and left, and have lost focus. If they keep that up for too long, the cumulative effect is as sure to cause them to bomb as the levees of New Orleans were sure to fail.

    But since it won't be tomorrow, I suppose you'll claim that the giant mushroom cloud over Mountain View isn't a nuke, when it does appear at some point in the nonimmediate future.
    Last edited by Leader; May 19th, 2007 at 04:47 PM.
    There is no knowledge that is not power. ~Hemingway

  20. #20
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    Pretty much.

    Fox bought myspace in the summer of 2005. This summer makes it 2 years... At 580million, the myspace deal 2 years later looks like a steal.

    Again, the difference here between the dot bomb of 2000, these are established companies jockeying for the future. Some of these are defensive buys, some of these are data or tech aquisition, and some are just positioning and eyeballs. But there is a long term strategy being applied here by these bigger companies, this isn't 2000 where everything was about the quick buck and turning over to get the ipo and selling out before people realized there was nothing there.

    Look at the nature of the companies being sold, at the companies being the next big thing. They are not some warehouse selling 50 lbs bags of dog food with free shipping.

    And while these dollar amounts may seem high, none of the deals have been that large for any of the companies involved that it will kill them if it all goes bad. Here is a fun little list of Microsoft profit facts...

    There is a huge difference, between today and 2000.

    Chet

  21. #21
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    this isn't 2000 where everything was about the quick buck and turning over to get the ipo and selling out before people realized there was nothing there.
    No, now it's the quick buck and turning over to some megacorp before people realize there's nothing there!

    SSDD.

    Look at the nature of the companies being sold, at the companies being the next big thing. They are not some warehouse selling 50 lbs bags of dog food with free shipping.
    You're missing the point. In 2000, that free-shipped dog food was one of the "next big things."

    Just the words "next big thing" are a warning shot. The people I've seen who use that phrase in reference to their own business are so excited that they're no longer thinking.

    As for the nature of the current companies, it's no different than the nature of any number of now-dead, or severely shrunken, ad-supported companies from 2000. Get lots of eyeballs, throw ads at 'em, hope the ad prices hold up. Same old same old, at the level of its true nature.

    Fox bought myspace in the summer of 2005. This summer makes it 2 years... At 580million, the myspace deal 2 years later looks like a steal.
    1) Damn, time flies!

    2) It'll look like a steal until the ad market hiccups. Then it'll be clear just who did the stealing.

    What's the SAME about now and 2000, is that there are a lot of "ad supported" free-c*ntent companies that have sprouted up. In 2000, they were banner-supported. Now, they like AdSense. But they're still counting on ads bringing in $X/pageview. If the ad market tanks, they tank with it.

    In 2000, it tended to be games, ecards, and contests. Now it's videos. So freaking what. It's the same model: Get eyeballs, blast ads, and pray that the advertisers keep blindly feeding the machine.
    There is no knowledge that is not power. ~Hemingway

  22. #22
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    Okay. You must not be following the recent events and are pulling your news from 2000 because you aren't describing most of the recent purchases nor the companies buying them nor understanding why they are buying them. Yeah, microsoft is an empty shell, news corp - been smoke and mirrors for 20 years just to play the quick flip card now... okay... okay...

    Chet

  23. #23
    Resident Genius and Staunch Capitalist Leader's Avatar
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    I never said anything about Microsoft one way or the other.

    Quit pretending I did.
    There is no knowledge that is not power. ~Hemingway

  24. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Leader
    I never said anything about Microsoft one way or the other.

    Quit pretending I did.

    Leader, you might want to read up on the recent purchases that are influencing this interest in VC. I was under the assumption, when you were describing this impending dotbomb 2.0 and participating in this thread, you were actually discussing the companies involved in recent acquisitions, the ones that brought up the original post even...

    You may want to read the original linked to article, and then plenty more...

    Chet

  25. #25
    Resident Genius and Staunch Capitalist Leader's Avatar
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    No, you were bored and decided to make a big deal out of one sentence I had typed, and nothing more.
    There is no knowledge that is not power. ~Hemingway

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