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  1. #1
    ABW Ambassador isellstuff's Avatar
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    Holiday shopping hits the skids (How's yours?)
    CNN Money has an article on how mall traffic really slowed last week.

    http://money.cnn.com/2007/12/11/news...ex.htm?cnn=yes

    I have about 6-10k "shoppers" a day on my site and I have not been overly impressed by the sales growth so far. I expected yesterday to be double last Monday's revenue, based on this graph

    http://adwords.blogspot.com/2007/11/...christmas.html

    But a quick look at my numbers seems to indicated that I did not quite achieve a doubling of revenue. My revenue came close, but I feel that the growth has more to do with the extra effort I've put into advertising. If I had stopped adding new PPC ads last week, I would not have come anywhere near doubling my revenue.

    So, my impression is that Holiday shoppers are feeling pretty cautious this year and that I'm having to work harder for my money. Do you all agree? I'm not sure how much traffic is needed to really do an accurate statistical guestimate.
    Merchants, any data you provide to Google Shopping should also be in your affiliate network datafeed. More data means more sales!

  2. #2
    Life is Supposed to be Fun! Rexanne's Avatar
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    Holiday shopping is pretty much done by now. There will be a few last minute sales here and there but the big party is over.

    Time to concentrate on Q1 and Q2 stuff.
    Peace,

    Rexanne

    Rexanne.com
    Loving Everyone's Child Creates Magic


  3. #3
    Moderator leeann's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rexanne
    Holiday shopping is pretty much done by now. There will be a few last minute sales here and there but the big party is over.

    Time to concentrate on Q1 and Q2 stuff.
    It sure went by fast!
    leeann


    Shoppers determine what has value and they like coupons. Stop manipulating who set the cookie just because you do not like coupon and promotional sites.

  4. #4
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    Not yetttttt

    Last year, 3 of the top 5 shopping days of all year were December 11, 13, 14. December 13th being the biggest shopping day last year. Peak online shopping dates are usually between December 5 - 15. So we have some prime days left.

    Top 12 Days of 2006 E-Commerce Spending,
    Ranked by Dollars Spent
    Non-Travel (Retail) Spending

    http://www.comscore.com/press/release.asp?press=1166

  5. #5
    ABW Ambassador meadowmufn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rexanne
    Holiday shopping is pretty much done by now. There will be a few last minute sales here and there but the big party is over.

    Time to concentrate on Q1 and Q2 stuff.
    Please don't tell that to my visitors! Yesterday was still pretty strong for me... 2nd or 3rd best day of the year behind Black Friday. There's still good money to be made... I hope!
    -Don't criticize anyone til you've walked a mile in their shoes. Then when you do criticize them, you'll be a mile away and have their shoes.
    - Silence is golden. Duct Tape is silver.

  6. #6
    ABW Ambassador isellstuff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rexanne
    Holiday shopping is pretty much done by now. There will be a few last minute sales here and there but the big party is over.

    Time to concentrate on Q1 and Q2 stuff.
    Oh, I don't agree. Last year I saw good sales up to the 20th. I'm amazed at how many people are heavy procrastinators. (and are willing to pay top dollar for overnight shipping)
    Merchants, any data you provide to Google Shopping should also be in your affiliate network datafeed. More data means more sales!

  7. #7
    What's the word? Rhia7's Avatar
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    Internet retailers from the UK are doing well:
    http://www.pocket-lint.co.uk/news/ne...its-high.phtml

    Mom 'n' pop retailers fight back on the Internet
    http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=160790

    Nielsen Online:

    Gift Recommendations Dominate Online Holiday Discussions; Web Allows Retail to Become Increasingly Consumer-Centric, According to Nielsen Online
    eBay, Amazon and Target Are Top Online Retailers for Week Ending December 2nd
    http://www.marketwire.com/mw/release...1&sourceType=3
    ~Rhia7 -- Remember the 7
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  8. #8
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    It's not ovvvvvvvvvvverrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr post 4, Party ain't over. This week is peak week

  9. #9
    Life is Supposed to be Fun! Rexanne's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by isellstuff
    Oh, Last year I saw good sales up to the 20th. I'm amazed at how many people are heavy procrastinators. (and are willing to pay top dollar for overnight shipping)
    Cool - let the procrastnators have at it. My site will be there for them.
    Peace,

    Rexanne

    Rexanne.com
    Loving Everyone's Child Creates Magic


  10. #10
    ABW Ambassador isellstuff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trust
    This graph makes me happy because it shows next week's sales were as strong as this weeks.
    Merchants, any data you provide to Google Shopping should also be in your affiliate network datafeed. More data means more sales!

  11. #11
    Troll Killer and best Snooper!
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    Yesterday was my best day ever. I'm expecting great sales through Monday the 17th when I'm guessing sales will peak.

  12. #12
    ABW Ambassador isellstuff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rhea
    Yesterday was my best day ever. I'm expecting great sales through Monday the 17th when I'm guessing sales will peak.
    Yes, I had a near record day as well, but that's because I've had more people visit my site, not because the people on my site are buying more or spending more.
    Merchants, any data you provide to Google Shopping should also be in your affiliate network datafeed. More data means more sales!

  13. #13
    ABW Ambassador meadowmufn's Avatar
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    If I recall, last year sales peaked for me somewhere between Dec. 18 and 21, generally the last days to order for Christmas delivery. I would love to see sales continue strong until then. Well, and AFTER then too, but when it's over, it's over.
    -Don't criticize anyone til you've walked a mile in their shoes. Then when you do criticize them, you'll be a mile away and have their shoes.
    - Silence is golden. Duct Tape is silver.

  14. #14
    ABW Ambassador isellstuff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by isellstuff
    Yes, I had a near record day as well, but that's because I've had more people visit my site, not because the people on my site are buying more or spending more.
    Realize my last statement is cryptic and confusing... I track purchases on a per-person basis in addition to per ad source, hence the above assertion.
    Merchants, any data you provide to Google Shopping should also be in your affiliate network datafeed. More data means more sales!

  15. #15
    Moderator MichaelColey's Avatar
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    It's definitely not over. Most years, my sales hit their peak around the 15th (give or take a couple days) and are still very, very strong through the 20th or so. Christmas Day is always my slowest day of the year. After Christmas through mid to late January are slower than the Christmas shopping season, but still stronger than average.
    Michael Coley
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    "Education is the most powerful weapon which you can use to change the world." Nelson Mandela

  16. #16
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    From this http://www.comscore.com/press/release.asp?press=1166, the spending increase on Dec 4th vs. 11th (Monday) in 2006 was less than 5%.
    Not sure what was the rationale behind expecting double the revenues!. Unless you had almost doubled the visitors.

  17. #17
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    Advice: If you're spending money to drive traffic to your merchants, make sure you know the shipping cutoff dates for each merchant for delivery by Christmas.

    Each year, I have one or more merchants who are converting wonderfully day after day, and then bang the conversion rate drops by 50% (because the merchant no longer promises delivery before Christmas for "standard shipping"), and then a few days later bang the conversion rate drops again (when even "express delivery" won't assure delivery by Christmas).

    Depending on the situation, I sometimes reduce bids or pause campaigns during this period, and then restore the bid rate or resume paused campaigns on December 24 or 25.

  18. #18
    ABW Ambassador isellstuff's Avatar
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    RedTags: I think you are right, I need to think about the Comscore numbers a bit more, I hadn't seen the report. I've allowed my experiences from last year cloud my judgement, when I shouldn't because I had just launched my site right before Thanksgiving.

    MarkWelch: Agree about the shipping. Actually an even bigger problem for me is stuff going out of stock at every store and not realizing it for hours and hours. My clue is currently that the volume of traffic I get from PPC greatly increases, along with the number of affiliate link clicks on my site, as visitor's frantically search for an item.
    Merchants, any data you provide to Google Shopping should also be in your affiliate network datafeed. More data means more sales!

  19. #19
    ABW Ambassador isellstuff's Avatar
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    Ok, wait a minute though.... I should have said "profit" not revenue... I'm talking "net" not gross.

    Say, like the adwords blog claims, there is roughly a 20-25% increase in conversions this week. Then, assume that I am selling widgets that are fairly expensive and have a good commission rate... Assuming I don't increase my PPC acquisition costs, wouldn't it be reasonable to expect a doubling of revenue? The reason being that PPC advertising that was only marginally profitable now becomes very profitable. So, take this example

    100 dollar widget, 10% commission = 10 bucks
    Last Week Cost to sell 1 widget = 9 dollars. Profit = $ 1

    This Week Cost to sell 1 widget = 6.77. Profit = $ 2.23

    Is my logic wrong?
    Merchants, any data you provide to Google Shopping should also be in your affiliate network datafeed. More data means more sales!

  20. #20
    ABW Ambassador isellstuff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by markwelch
    Advice: If you're spending money to drive traffic to your merchants, make sure you know the shipping cutoff dates for each merchant for delivery by Christmas.
    You know Mark, I'm going to really pay attention to this... Very valuable advice. Last year my PPC spending was such that it didn't hurt when the above phenomenon occurred. This year it will be very expensive. I just wish I had more real-time sales reporting...
    Merchants, any data you provide to Google Shopping should also be in your affiliate network datafeed. More data means more sales!

  21. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by isellstuff
    Ok, wait a minute though.... I should have said "profit" not revenue... I'm talking "net" not gross.

    Say, like the adwords blog claims, there is roughly a 20-25% increase in conversions this week. Then, assume that I am selling widgets that are fairly expensive and have a good commission rate... Assuming I don't increase my PPC acquisition costs, wouldn't it be reasonable to expect a doubling of revenue? The reason being that PPC advertising that was only marginally profitable now becomes very profitable. So, take this example

    100 dollar widget, 10% commission = 10 bucks
    Last Week Cost to sell 1 widget = 9 dollars. Profit = $ 1

    This Week Cost to sell 1 widget = 6.77. Profit = $ 2.23

    Is my logic wrong?

    No, your logic for your case is fine.
    The above numbers, PPC conversions, your costs, your commissions, net profits after costs etc. are unique to your case. It is perhaps not a topic for discussion or comments from others?. Does that make sense ...


    You could have started a discussion, did your conversions from PPC go up as expected per the Adwords chart (you linked)?. Mine did almost .. what did yours do??

  22. #22
    ABW Ambassador isellstuff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by redtagdeals
    No, your logic for your case is fine.
    The above numbers, PPC conversions, your costs, your commissions, net profits after costs etc. are unique to your case. It is perhaps not a topic for discussion or comments from others?. Does that make sense ...
    Actually, that's an interesting assertion. I think that if conversion rates improve then net profit should improve drastically for anyone who gets a percentage of sales as a commission, all other things being constant.
    Merchants, any data you provide to Google Shopping should also be in your affiliate network datafeed. More data means more sales!

  23. #23
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    Now the holiday shopping online seems to be definitely hitting the skids ... ramping down since yesterday afternoon!. Happy Holidays everyone.

  24. #24
    Kung Fu Master Eathan's Avatar
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    Our retail sales are about half what they were last week, but still pretty strong, a lot stronger than I expected, even today.

    One thing I didn't get done that I really wanted to was posting our last ship date, and last dates for delivery by various methods. I got it into our newsletter, but wanted to also post it on the site. Next year for sure. Anything that answers those questions that make a buyer pause and reconsider is worth doing.

    On the affiliates side, yep, things have dropped off a fair bit.
    Eathan Mertz

    Black Cat Mining - Gold Prospecting & Rockhounding Equipment

  25. #25
    Outsourced Program Manager Azam Marketing's Avatar
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    Sales have been gradually declining over last few days and are rock-bottom now. Will hopefully pick-up after Christmas Day with the sales.

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